2024 election polls

Abacus Poll August 18-23 with Cons have 12% lead

Our latest reading of political opinions in Canada finds the Conservatives opening up a 12-point lead over the Liberals, the largest lead for the Conservatives we have measured since the 2015 federal election. 38% would vote Conservative (up 1 since early August), 26% Liberal (down 2) and 19% would vote NDP (unchanged). 

Regionally, the Conservatives are ahead by 19-points in British Columbia, 40-points in Alberta, and 22-points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. In all three regions/provinces, the Liberals are in third place with the NDP in second.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are ahead by 8 while the BQ is slightly ahead in Quebec by 5 points over the Liberals. In Atlantic Canada, we have the two parties statistically tied with the Conservatives at 38% and the Liberals at 33%.

In Ontario, where we surveyed over 1,000 people, the Liberals lead by 6 in Toronto but trailed the Conservatives by 10 in the GTHA (postal codes that start with L). The two parties are tied in Eastern Ontario while the Conservatives have a 20-point lead in Southwestern Ontario.

The Conservatives lead across all age groups and among men and women.

Should Prime MInister Trudeau run again or step down and let someone else become Liberal leader and Prime Minister?

Overall, 56% of Canadians think Trudeau should step down and let someone else become Liberal leader and Prime Minister while 27% feel he should run again. 17% were unsure. 

Quebecers were the most likely to want to see Trudeau run again (33%) while Albertans were the least likely (15%). 28% in Ontario and 26% in BC want the Prime Minister to run again. 

But perhaps most striking, 1 in 4 of those who said they voted Liberal in 2021 want Trudeau to step down. Among this group, 46% would vote Liberal again but 35% would vote Conservative and 13% would vote NDP. Those saying they would vote Conservative or NDP constitute 4% of decided voters.

Impressions of Pierre Poilievre have improved

Finally, when we look at public impressions of the party leaders, we see a notable improvement in Pierre Poilievre’s personal numbers. Today, 34% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader (up 4 in 2 weeks) while those with a negative view are down 3 to 35%. Both of these shifts are outside the margin of error. Poilievre’s net favourable rating is -1.

Justin Trudeau’s image is largely unchanged from last wave. 53% have a negative impression (a new high) while 29% have a positive view for a net favourable rating of -24.

Jagmeet Singh’s rating is also largely unchanged with 34% positive and 31% negative for a net rating of +3.

https://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-lead-by-12-as-only-27-of-canadians-t...

Leger poll August 31st
Q1. If federal elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for the ...
Base: Decided voters (n=1,270), except for the Bloc Québécois, Quebecers only

CPC: 38%

LPC: 29% 

NDP: 18%

BQ: 8%

GPC: 4%

PPC: 2%
 

https://legermarketing.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Le...

Angus Reid poll September 6

CPC: 39% 

LPC: 27% 

NDP: 19%

BQ: 8% 

GPC: 4% 

PPC: 2% 

Quote:

While the Bank of Canada holds steady – for now – on the borrowing rate, there appears to be little end in sight to a 15-month slump in Liberal political fortunes. The popularity of both the governing party and its leader, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, have been on a consistent slide, and the latest results of a public opinion survey from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute do nothing to reassure a shrinking Liberal base.

Trudeau’s perceived handling of the ongoing cost-of-living crisis has sent a significant segment of past LPC voters to both the New Democrats and opposition Conservatives and sent his personal approval down to levels unseen since early 2020.

This bleeding of support benefits the Conservative Party directly, with CPC vote intent now at 39 per cent, a 12-point advantage over the Liberals.

More critically, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is now seen as best prime minister by twice as many as those who say the same of the actual prime minister (32 versus 17 per cent) and is additionally viewed by a plurality (41 per cent) as best to manage the economy.

As many Canadians consider whether the grass is greener on the blue side of the fence, given the option, most would prefer a different arrangement in parliament than the Liberal minority, with NDP support, that Canada currently has. Two-in-five (38%) say a Conservative majority would be the best government for Canada going forward, slightly more than the proportion who prefer the ongoing NDP-Liberal supply-and-confidence set-up (35%). Equal numbers prefer a Liberal majority (13%) as a Conservative minority (15%).

Conversely, though a Conservative majority is the most preferred choice, it is also the most feared one. When presented with the same options and asked to evaluate which one would be worst for the country, more than two-in-five (43%) say a Conservative majority. A similar number (38%) believe a Liberal majority would be the worst possible government Canada could have over the next four years.

More Key Findings:

Fewer than half (45%) of 2021 Liberal voters currently say that Trudeau is the best option of the federal leaders to be prime minister. Comparatively, 77 per cent of past Conservative voters say Poilievre would be best.
The Liberal Party currently does not lead in vote intent in any region of the country canvassed in this survey. The LPC holds an advantage over the CPC in only one – Quebec – where it sits second behind the Bloc Québécois.
Conservative and Liberal vote intention has inverted in the 905 belt of Greater Toronto. Comparing data from last September, the Liberal Party has dropped 17 points in vote intention from 47 to 30 per cent, while the CPC has jumped 10 points from 36 to 46 per cent.
Those Canadians who are suffering most financially – a group that say they’re worse off this year than they were last year, and they expect this to continue to worsen into next year – are most likely to say the CPC is best on economic issues (56%). Just nine per cent of them trust the Liberals on this file, while 22 per cent say there’s no good option to help them.

Abacus Poll September 12 with Cons have 15% lead

 

Since our previous survey last week, the Conservatives are up 1, the Liberals steady, and the NDP down 1. The BQ is up slightly in Quebec.

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to hold a big lead in Western Canada, including BC. They lead by 6 in Ontario and by 11 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ has an 8-point lead over the Liberals.

The Conservatives continue to lead across all age groups and among men and women. Interestingly, while the Conservatives lead by wide margins among those with a high school or college education, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied with those with a university degree.

But the steady vote intention figures mask deteriorating underlying opinions.

For example, those dissapproving of the federal government’s performance is up 4 points (to 57%) since last week reaching the highest it’s been since 2015. Only 29% approve of the job performance of the Liberal government.

The Prime Minister’s personal image has also worsened. Today 56% have a negative impression of the Justin Trudeau compared wih 27% with a positive view for a net favourable score of -29.

Since the end of June, the Prime Minister’s personal numbers have trended down across all key demographic groups most notably among millennials (most of those aged 30 to 44).

In contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has about equal numbers with positive and negative impressions, although there doesn’t appear to be either a bounce or drop in impressions of Poilievre coming out of the Conservative convention. 

Perhaps most worrisome for the Liberals is what appears to be some deterioriation in the party’s accessible voter pool (those who say they are open to voting Liberal). It has reached the lowest point since 2015 at 42%, a drop of 2 points since August. In contrast, 50% of Canadian adults say they are open to voting Conservative – the largest gap in accessible voter pool advantage for the Conservatives 2015.

Finally, we continue to see affordability issues dominating the public agenda. In fact, those ranking housing affordability as a top issue is up 4 points since last week moving now solidly into second place between the cost of living more broadly.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “These numbers continue to show deterioriation in underlying opinions about the government and the Prime Minister that we first started seeing last summer but only recently seem to have impacted people’s intended voting behaviour.

The government needs to find a way to reset its agenda that allows people into evaluating the government differently, and offers a plan and vision that gives people hope that they have a handle on the key issues facing the country. In the absence of that, people’s deep anxiety about the state of the country and their personal lives will overshadow any incremental policies or actions it roles out.

For the Conservatives, these numbers reinforce the strong position the party is in at the moment. More people have a positive view of Pierre Poilievre than either of the two major leaders. They are seen as best able to handle most of the top issues people are focused on and if the desire for change persists and they are seen as capable and acceptable alternatives, they will easily ride the wave into office whenever the next election comes.

Yes, the election could be years away. But the trend is what matters and the Liberal situation is worsening at this point from week to week.”

https://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-lead-by-15-as-government-disapproval...

Nanos Poll September 22 2023 (% Change Compared With 2021 Federal Election)

CPC: 35.6% (+1.9%)

LPC: 28.6 (-4.0%)

NDP: 21.4% (+3.6)

BQ: 7.3% (-0.3)

GPC: 5.1% (+2.8)

PPC: 1.7% (-3.2)
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canad

Nanos Poll December 1st 2023 (% Change Compared With 2021 Federal Election)

CPC: 40.4% (+6%)

LPC: 23.4% (-9%)

NDP: 21.2% (+4%)

BQ: 6.3% (-1.3)

GPC:  5.2% (+3%)

PPC: 1.8% (-3%)
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canad

Abacus Data Poll December 12 2023 Conservative lead drops to 10%

If an election were held today, 37% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 27%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 33% in Quebec.

Since our last survey, the Conservatives are down 5 while the Liberals are up 4. This is a statistically significant shift in vote intentions since the end of November.

Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 10 in BC, and 9 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 8-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 5 over the Liberals with the Conservatives at 21%.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead among those aged 30 and over. Among the youngest cohort, the Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the Conservatives, gaining 8-points among younger Canadians.

We find almost no difference in vote intention between men and women.

When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 50% say they are open to voting Conservative (down 4 since November 28) while 43% are open to voting Liberal (+1), 41% NDP, 28% for the Greens, and 19% for the People’s Party. In Quebec, 49% say they are open to voting BQ.

https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-lead-drops-to-10-over-liberals/

Here is more detail from the Angus Reid poll released today.  However the circle graph of committed and soft voters can only be seen at the url below. 

CPC leads by significant margin heading into 2024

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government began the year trailing the opposition CPC in vote intention by single digits and saw that gap grow quarter over quarter. Two-in-five (41%) of Canadians say they would vote for the Conservative Party, compared to 24 per cent say they would support the Liberals, and one-in-five (20%) the NDP:

 

Across the country, at best, the Liberals are tied in vote intent with the Conservatives, but only in Quebec. There, both parties currently trail the Bloc Québécois, who have the support of nearly two-in-five (37%). Everywhere else, the CPC lead in vote intent, including in the always key electoral provinces of B.C. and Ontario:

 

The Liberals have seen significant erosion of their support from their 2021 base. Three-in-five (58%) who voted for the Liberals in the last federal election say they would repeat their vote today. Comparatively, the other major parties have fared better – and in the case of the CPC and Bloc, much better – at retaining their 2021 voters:

 

Part Two: The swing voter

Half are not fully committed to any party

With an election not imminently on the horizon, there is still time for the parties to influence voters’ minds with policies and promises. Respondents were asked to assess how committed they are to their party choice. Currently, the CPC enjoy the highest level of commitment, with nearly two-thirds of their current voter pool saying they are fully committed to their choice. That leaves one-third who are less committed to the CPC or are “soft” supporters of the party.

The Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois have much higher proportions of their support which is soft. All in all, around half of the voter pool say their minds could be changed, and their votes could move before ballots are cast:

 

 

But who are they?

There are some demographic factors in play for each of the groups of soft voters. Conservative committed voters are older (52% 55+) than those who say they may change their mind (41% 55+). The same dynamic is true for the Liberals. Meanwhile, less committed NDP voters are older (32% 55+) than those who say they are locked into voting for the NDP (24% 55+). However, only for the Liberals is there a significant gender split. Soft Liberal voters are more likely to be male (47%) than those who say they are fully committed to voting Liberal come the next election (39%, see detailed tables).

These soft voters vary in make up depending on which way they are leaning. For Poilievre and the Conservatives, half of soft supporters previously voted for the party in 2021. But, providing evidence of the party’s recent gains in vote intent, the other half include those who placed their votes elsewhere in the previous election. One-in-eight (13%) of those who are leaning towards the CPC previously voted Liberal, while smaller sized groups of one-in-20 voted NDP (6%) or for the People’s Party (6%).

Soft Liberal voters, meanwhile, are mostly those who voted Liberal in 2021, further evidence perhaps that the party has much work to do to shore up its previous levels of support:

 

To gauge which direction uncommitted voters are looking, those who were not fully committed to a party choice were asked follow-up questions as to whether they would consider supporting the four major political parties. Two-thirds (65%) in this group said they would definitely or might consider the Liberal party, while approaching three-quarters (73%) say the same of the NDP. Two-thirds (63%) of uncommitted voters in Quebec say they hadn’t ruled out voting for the Bloc Québécois (see detailed tables).

Uncommitted voters are less likely to consider the Conservatives, but this is partially due to how many voters say they have already fully committed to voting for the CPC in the next election. Half (53%) of these uncommitted voters say they would think about voting CPC.

In total, including soft Liberal and NDP voters who are still considering to vote CPC, vote intent for the Conservatives could grow to as large as 54 per cent.

 

Part Three: CPC leadership – liabilities and opportunities

To further understand the risks and potential for the CPC amid its surge in voter intention, further questions focused on Pierre Poilievre and his party.

Soft voters are weighing many factors as they decided where they will ultimately place their vote in the next election. Leadership, and the personalities of the leaders, is one. Assessments of Poilievre have varied. He’s been described in media as “angry” and a “bully”, while others have labelled him as “smart” and “charismatic”.

How soft voters perceive Poilievre

The top adjective Canadians use to describe Poilievre is “arrogant” (42%) by a 10-point margin. One-in-three (32%) see him as “strategic”, while nearly as many choose the word “dishonest” (30%). One-quarter feel he is a “bully” (27%), but nearly as many describe him as “strong” (26%). For the full list of adjectives presented to respondents, see the questionnaire. As well, for similar assessments of Trudeau, see detailed tables.

Meanwhile, soft Liberal and NDP supporters who are open to voting CPC hold differing views than those who lean CPC but aren’t fully committed. The latter are more likely to describe Poilievre in a positive manner. Soft Liberals and NDP voters who are open to moving to the CPC are more negative in their assessments, generally, but aren’t uniform in their opinions.

In this pre-election period, as the CPC look to shape views of Poilievre with an advertising blitz, it is important to note that more than one-third of soft Liberal (36%) and NDP (38%) voters who are open to the CPC say they don’t know enough to assess Poilievre currently:

 

Respondents were asked to further assess Poilievre with a series of statements. Four-in-five (79%) Canadians agree that he “is a strong critic of the current government”. There is less agreement as to whether or not Poilievre is sincere or likeable or understands constituents’ important issues. Fewer than that believe he holds values similar to their own. There also appears to be doubt among Canadians that Poilievre “genuinely cares” about women or non-white people.

Soft CPC voters are more likely to offer praise than criticism of Poilievre, while soft Liberal and NDP supporters who aren’t ruling out voting for the CPC are more critical. However, NDP supporters are more likely to view Poilievre as “likeable” (28%) than Liberal supporters (18%), and more likely to view him as someone that understand issues important to them (29% vs. 22%):

 

Part Four: CPC policy – liabilities and opportunities

Party policies can be magnets for voters, with both the potential to attract and repel depending on the polarity. Respondents who were open to voting for the CPC were asked to assess potential policy commitments from the CPC, as well as some potential countermoves from their Liberal opponents.

Overall, commitments to public health care and repealing the carbon tax provide the strongest pulls to the CPC for potential voters across the political spectrum. Soft supporters across the political spectrum also say they would be more likely to vote CPC if Poilievre does “not reopen” the debate on abortion. There are other issues – such as defunding the CBC – which attract some soft CPC voters but repel others.

On these policy matters, there is some separation between soft NDP and Liberal voters who have not ruled out the CPC. Soft NDP voters say they are more likely to vote CPC if they commit to repealing the carbon tax, while that position could drive away soft Liberal supporters.

There is also a significant factor outside of CPC control – soft Liberal and NDP voters say they are less likely to consider the CPC if Justin Trudeau steps down before the election.

Related: Majority — including two-in-five past Liberal voters — say Trudeau should step down

 

https://angusreid.org/cpc-liberals-ndp-swing-voters-trudeau-poilievre/

The NDP has pulled even with the Liberals in English-speaking Canada, but is behind them overall because of the big lead the Liberals have over the NDP in Quebec. 

Angus Reid poll Jan.22 2024

CPC: 41% with 15% voting Con to block Libs

LPC: 24% with 15% voting Lib to block Cons 

NDP: 20% with 30% of these willing to vote Liberal to block Pierre

BQ: 9% with 19% of them ready to vote Lib to block Pierre

GPC: 4% 

Others: 3% 

A new year is revealing a massive gap in enthusiasm between the two parties most likely to form government after the next federal election.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Conservatives maintain a significant advantage in both sheer vote intent numbers as well as motivation.

In a current election scenario, two-in- five (41%) would support Pierre Poilievre and the CPC while one- quarter (24%) would vote for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. The Conservatives have maintained a double-digit vote lead since last September.

A look beyond the topline vote intention uncovers a significant gap in voter inspiration. Three-in-five (62%) CPC voters (one quarter of the electorate overall) say they intend to vote Conservative because they support the party, its leader and its policies, over blocking the formation of another Trudeau term. More disquieting for the Liberals: an inverse trend.

Three-in-five (63%) who intend to vote
for Trudeau and the Liberals say they
are much more motivated by stopping a
CPC government rather than support
for the party, leader, or policies. This
means just nine per cent of the
Canadian electorate is passionate
about and inspired by the prospect of voting Liberal.

While a federal election is unlikely in the near term, the silver lining for the Liberals is that the CPC lead may not be as cavernous as it appears. More than one-third (36%) current NDP supporters and one-in- five (19%) current Bloc Québécois voters say they would switch their vote to the Liberals if the CPC were on the track to victory in an upcoming election. Others (30% of NDP supporters, 26% of BQ supporters) say it is something they would consider. In a world where the Liberals picked up these switchers, the gap between the two parties could narrow to seven points.

As the clock ticks down on this current government, both parties find themselves with leaders unappealing to much of the electorate. Two-thirds (64%) of Canadians, including at least three-in-five of men and women of all ages, say they disapprove of Trudeau. Poilievre fares better as two-in-five (40%) say they have a favourable view of the Conservative leader. However, there is a wide gender divide on the CPC leader. Poilievre is buoyed by men – a majority say they view him favourably – but is viewed poorly among women, who view him unfavourably by a two-to-one margin (57% unfavourable, 29% favourable).

Once a strong point for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party, vote intention among women is now poor. At most, three-in-ten (31%) women older than 54 say they will vote Liberal. Support for the Liberals falls below one-quarter for other age and gender groups. Men of all ages are far more likely to be Conservative supporters:

Liberal retention continues to fall

The Liberals have much work to do to convince past supporters to return to the party. Fewer than three- in-five (57%) of those who voted Liberal in 2021 say they would repeat their vote for the party. Comparatively, nine-in-10 (90%) 2021 CPC voters and 67 per cent of 2021 NDP voters say the same, suggesting that the Liberals are dealing with a foundational issue heading into the next electoral contest.

For the Liberals, the most common destination is the NDP for those who have stopped supporting the party. One-in-six (16%) of 2021 Liberal voters say they now intend to vote NDP. The Conservatives, with one-in-eight (12%) past Liberal voters, are close behind:

In different ways, Poilievre motivates both Conservative and Liberal voters

While there certainly is a significant amount of distaste for Trudeau among the Canadian public, that does not appear to be the strongest motivating factor for those who intend to vote for the Conservative Party. Instead, three-in-five (62%) CPC supporters say they are more likely to vote because they want to support Poilievre and what the party stands for. Across the aisle, those who intend to vote Liberal view blocking Poilievre as stronger motivation. In fact, more than half of would-be Liberal voters say they are supporting the party to stop the Conservatives, more than out of an affinity for the Liberal vision:

One-quarter of non-CPC, non-Liberal voters would likely switch to block CPC

One wildcard in this equation is the potential for strategic voting. Many NDP voters appear to be willing to support the Liberals in the event the CPC are on the track to victory. More than one-third (36%) say they’d be likely to switch and a further three-in-ten say it’s something they’d consider. Others say it is unlikely (19%) or not going to happen (15%). This would be a catastrophic loss of support for Jagmeet Singh and his party, which increased its support from 16 to 18 per cent from 2019 to 2021.

Those who intend to vote Bloc Québécois are less open to switching to the Liberals to stop a potential CPC government, but still 35 per cent say either it’s a possibility (26%) or likely to happen (19%).

Overall, Likely Switchers - those who say they would most likely support the Liberals to prevent a Conservative government - make up approximately one-quarter of the non-CPC, non-Liberal vote (see detailed tables). If those voters did, indeed, “switch” in the proportions shown above the Liberal Party would find itself in a much more competitive situation, with 34 per cent of vote intention. That said, even in this case the party would trail by a seven-point margin.

Notably, there remain another one-in-three non-CPC, non-Liberal voters who say it is “possible” they would switch. If this group supported the Liberals, they would be statistically tied with the CPC. There are many factors in play when it comes to Canadians’ vote intentions, but this suggests that the gap between the two parties may not be as large as it currently stands.

Leadership favourability

Much has been made in January of a trip to Jamaica taken by Trudeau and his family over the holidays. Critics have claimed that the trip set a bad image for the PM as Canadians struggle with the cost-of-living crisis at home, and that the official line about where Trudeau stayed and how much it cost has changed a number of times. Others have noted that conflict of interest rules were considered and followed, and that Trudeau stayed with a family friend.

The ongoing debate has not had any observable impact on Trudeau’s approval, which remains hovering around three-in-10, largely unchanged in the past six months:

Poilievre, too, deals with high levels of disapproval. Half of Canadians have consistently held this view since he assumed the CPC leadership, and though his long-term trendline has improved in approval, he, too, has seen his ratings largely unchanged since the fall:

Across age and gender groupings, Poilievre has a clear advantage among men of all ages but joins Trudeau in struggling to resonate with women. The CPC leader nets out at a minus 36 when taking favourable minus unfavourable ratings among young women (34 and under), and a minus 30 among women over the age of 54. Meantime, Trudeau is a staggering minus 38 and minus 45 among men 35 to 54 and 55 and older. As noted previously, nearly half of young women (47%) and three-in-10 between the ages of 35 and 54 would currently vote for the NDP – the highest support levels for the party among age and gender combos:

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2024.01.22_Fed_Vote.pdf

Alberta gains three new ridings that are likely to go Conservative. 

The Conservatives won 30 of 34 ridings in Alberta in the last election. If that is the only thing you knew, you’d expect the addition of three more ridings to the province to benefit the Conservatives more than anyone else.

And that’s very much the case. The new boundaries have plenty of good news for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, a little for Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats, and not much at all for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.

Changing riding boundaries can have a real impact on electoral outcomes. In this series, I’m diving deep into the re-drawn map to see what those impacts might be (with the help of J.P. Kirby’s excellent Riding Builder tool). Paying subscribers of The Writ are taking that deep dive along with me, but before plunging in here’s the TL;DR of what you need to know:

Alberta Redistribution Briefing: The Conservatives win big in Alberta, gaining two of the newly created seats and flipping two others at the expense of the Liberals. The gain of the third new seat for the Liberals mitigates their losses, but a tough province for Justin Trudeau looks likely to be even tougher next time.

https://www.thewrit.ca/p/conservatives-win-big-with-new-alberta

Below is a summary look at Ontario electoral changes. 

Toronto and Peel Redistribution Briefing: Though Toronto is losing a seat, the Liberals make good on that loss with a new riding being added to Brampton. In addition, changes to a couple of ridings will make it even tougher for the New Democrats to break the Liberal grip on the old city of Toronto.

Golden Horseshoe Briefing: Taking together all the ridings with both significant and modest changes compared to 2021, the Liberals do come out ahead with a slightly more favourable map. More ridings have become safer than more vulnerable and one of the new ridings is in Liberal-friendly territory. But the changes to the map in the Golden Horseshoe, excluding Toronto and Peel Region, are relatively minor. And in the few ridings where things have changed significantly, it is the Conservatives that come out further ahead — gaining one of the new seats, closing to within toss-up status in one re-drawn riding and potentially flipping another over from the Liberals.

Northern, Eastern and Southwestern Ontario Briefing: The Liberals face more challenges in northern Ontario, where they lose one seat to the Conservatives and will have a much harder time holding another against both the Conservatives and the NDP. The NDP also loses a seat in the north due to the re-allocation of one riding to the south. In eastern Ontario, the Liberals largely come out ahead, particularly in one battleground in the Ottawa area. And in southwestern Ontario, the changes are largely bad for the Liberals to the benefit of both the NDP and Conservatives, as Liberal seats in London become tougher to hold and a closer three-way race emerges in Windsor.

https://www.thewrit.ca/p/liberals-lose-out-in-new-map-for

Here is a look at other regions electoral changes based on the 2021 census. 

Saskatchewan Redistribution Briefing: The province’s urban battlegrounds are little changed, though one riding in Regina could be an easier target for the NDP next time. The most significant change, though, is in the north, where the new boundaries will make it very difficult for the Conservatives to sweep Saskatchewan again — opening the way to either the Liberals or the New Democrats.

Newfoundland and Labrador Redistribution Briefing: The only major changes made to the map have been on the Avalon Peninsula, but the electoral impact is minimal. Nevertheless, the new boundaries will play a role in how likely it is that two marginal seats on that peninsula could change hands in the future.

Nova Scotia Redistribution Briefing: The final report reverses what would have been a flipped seat for the Liberals and instead creates three battleground ridings the Liberals will have a tougher time in, with only one marginal riding becoming safer for the Liberals.

Overall, this map puts the Liberals at a disadvantage, with both the Conservatives and New Democrats in a better position in Nova Scotia heading into the next federal election.

Manitoba Redistribution Briefing: The commissioners initially proposed more significant changes to the map, but the final proposal has only a few minor changes to what had been a largely uncompetitive map. Each party retains its strongholds in Manitoba, and the Conservatives are in a slightly better position in the one seat that was close in 2021.

Atlantic Canada Redistribution Briefing: While there are some significant changes to the map in some areas, overall the electoral situation doesn’t change drastically. However, there are two seats that the redistribution could flip from the Conservatives to the Liberals.

There are also two seats in which the Liberal margin would be significantly reduced, enough to make the seats much more competitive. The Conservatives are the beneficiary in one and the New Democrats in the other.

Overall, the redistribution in Atlantic Canada is a net positive for the Liberals in two seats at the expense of the Conservatives, though the Conservatives could mitigate their loss with an improved position in one seat and the NDP could also make one gain.

https://www.thewrit.ca/p/redistribution-atlantic-canada

IPSOS Poll March 28th Conservatives have 18% lead, Liberals and NDP only 3% apart

March 28, 2024 – The Conservatives have opened an 18-point lead over the Liberals, who still appear at risk of losing their second-place position. The Conservative lead has grown by 2 points in four months, underscoring the challenges that the incumbent Liberal government is facing. The Conservatives lead in every region except Quebec where the Bloc has the lead. Substantial advantages are seen in all other regions where the Liberals no better than second in every region (e.g., BC [42% CPC vs. 22% LPC] and Ontario [43% CPC vs. 24% LPC]). Given these results, if the election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would be well positioned to form a majority government, particularly if vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals is widespread.

Key to Conservative fortunes is that they lead the Liberals among every key demographic studied. The Conservatives maintain a dominant position over the Liberals among men (25-point lead) and women (11-point lead). Their advantage among those aged 35+ is substantial (21 points), but they also hold a 10-point lead over the Liberals among those aged 18-34, who used to be the core constituency of the Liberal Party, but now favour the Conservatives and the NDP.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/tories-open-18-point-lead-over-liberals-and-...