Unfortunately, there is very good chance that level of denial will continue through the next election, thereby allowing the Liberals or Conservatives to win and carry on with Canada's fossil fuel addiction.
Unless we find a way to simplify the argument you are probably right.
New September 23 EKOS poll with no bounce for Poilievre and a few strange numbers such as NDP at 21% in Quebec which is higher than their national average in the poll and quite different from the Leger Abacus and Nanos polls on that number.
Cons 33.7%
Libs 31.7%
NDP 20.1%
Bloc 5.9%
Greens 5%
PPC 3%
Other 1%
Conservatives Maintain Small Lead
NO EVIDENCE OF POST-POILIEVRE BOUNCE
[OTTAWA – September 23, 2022] The Conservative Party of Canada, with its new leader Pierre Poilievre, has a two-point lead over the governing Liberals, a new EKOS Research Poll has found.
Among decided and leaning voters, The Conservatives have 33.7% support while the Liberals have 31.7%. The NDP has 20%, the Greens command 5% support, and the People’s Party brings in 3.1%. The Bloc Québécois nationally is at 5.9%, but has 26% in Quebec.
No Poilievre bounce – but Conservatives can win the next election
“The Conservatives have not gotten a post-Poilievre bounce,” said Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research. “The voter landscape looks remarkably similar to the last two elections.”
“If an election were held tomorrow – and one will not – we would not see significant changes from the 2021 election.”
Despite not seeing an uptick in national support, the results of the survey indicate that the Conservative voters are fully behind Poilievre as their new leader.
However, Graves notes that this does not mean Poilievre has no path to victory in the next election.
“First, the open and informed majority have an array of political choices, while those holding an ‘ordered’ view and disinformed Canadians are flocking strongly to Poilievre,” Graves stated.
https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2022/09/conservatives-maintain-sm...
However, the poll that is truly different from the other four (Abacus, Leger, Nanos and EKOS) September polls already listed in earlier posts is Mainstreet's September poll showing Polievre Cons at 40.8% and the NDP at 12.4%. Mainstreet has a pattern of favouring right wing parties, sometimes going way off actual election results, with the most famous case being having to admit "catastrophic failure" in predicting the defeat of Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi in 2017 by a wide margin when he won big (https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/mainstreet-acknowledges-catast...).
Cons 40.8%
Libs 32.7%
NDP 12.4%
Bloc 5.2%
PPC 3.4%
Greens 2.6%
Others 2.7%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
A new September 27th Angus Reid poll shows the Cons with a 7% lead on the Liberals led by 47% support among men compared to 28% among women. Women under 35 prefer the NDP those over 34 prefer the Liberals.
The ascendance of Pierre Poilievre as leader of the Conservatives is giving his party an advantage in vote intent over the Liberals not seen in more than three years.
Since the 2019 election, the two parties have been locked in what has mostly amounted to a statistical tie in national vote intention – generally driven by the rise and fall the fortunes of the Trudeau government in the moment rather than momentum for the Conservatives.
Now the opposition party – which last month elected its third leader in as many years – is pulling together a right-of-centre base that includes not only its own supporters but those who turned out for the People’s Party in the 2021 general election.
The result is now a seven-point lead in vote intention for the Conservatives, according to new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute. Three-quarters of those who supported the PPC in the last federal election (5% of Canadians voted for the PPC) say they would now support the CPC.
Overall, three-in-ten Canadians say they would vote Liberal, while one-in-five would vote for the NDP.
In terms of leadership, the Liberals’ Justin Trudeau and Poilievre have strengths and weaknesses they will need to buttress or overcome. Poilievre is seen as best to lead on a number of key issues including managing the federal deficit, economic growth, and the cost of living. Meanwhile, Trudeau is the preferred choice to steward Canada’s place on the world stage, the nation’s social safety net, climate change policy, and health care.
In terms of the personal appeal of Trudeau and Poilievre, there is an emerging gender dynamic at play. Women are far more likely to approve of Trudeau’s performance (47% vs 32%). When asked about Poilievre, 45 per cent of men view him favourably, compared to just 26 per cent of women. This extends to vote intention. The CPC is the top choice among all male age groups and no female age groups. Women younger than 35 prefer the NDP, while those older than 34 prefer the Liberals.
More Key Findings:
- Three-in-five believe cost of living is a top issue facing Canada, outpacing health care (45%), climate change (28%), housing affordability (27%) and the economy more broadly (21%).
- The last time the gap in vote intent between the CPC and Liberals was this large in ARI tracking was 2019.
- Among decided and leaning voters, nearly half (47%) of men say they intend to vote CPC if an election were held today. Support for the CPC is much lower among women: 28 per cent.
...
Cost of living and health care are keyWith fall comes consistency in the issues that are front of mind in the summer: runaway cost of living and an ailing health-care system.
Related: Access to Health Care: Free, but for all? Nearly nine million Canadians report chronic difficulty getting help
Three-in-five (60%) Canadians select inflation as a top issue of personal concern. Approaching half (45%) say so of health care. Those two issues vastly outpace other challenges facing the country, such as climate change (selected by 28%), housing affordability (27%) and the economy more generally (21%). Those numbers remain similar to the summer, when three-in-five (63%) said cost of living was a top concern, half (52%) said health care, three-in-ten (31%) chose housing affordability and one-quarter (26%) chose climate change.
Concerns over inflation transcend politics: more than half of past voters for all five main federal parties say cost of living is a top concern, ranking it first among issues for all but past Liberal voters.
Health care also ranks highly for past Conservative, Liberal, NDP and Bloc supporters, though Conservatives are less likely to select it as a top issue than the others.
Those who voted Liberal, NDP and Bloc last year are more likely than those who voted PPC and CPC to select climate change as a top issue. Meanwhile, at least two-in-five PPC (41%) and CPC (37%) voters say the deficit is a pressing national concern:
Regional results and the shift from the PPC to the Cons illustrating the further rightward movement of the Con party for the Angus Reid September 27th poll
The PPC migration
While the main federal parties enjoy professed support from at least three-quarters of those who voted for them in 2021, this is not the case for the PPC. Three-quarters of this group say they would now vote for the Conservatives. Given the closeness of popular vote in the 2019 and 2021 elections, it is also of note that slivers of past Liberal and NDP voters are also giving the CPC a look:
Regional results
The Conservative Party has won the popular vote in two consecutive elections while failing to form government, largely on the strength of overwhelming but inefficient vote shares in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and important losses in Quebec and Ontario. Ontario currently appears competitive, with the CPC garnering 39 per cent and the Liberals 36 per cent. Support for the CPC is also up slightly compared to the 2021 election in British Columbia and Quebec.
So they scooped up the PPC vote. Not surprising.
Another poll, this time by Ipsos, shows a significant 5% lead for the Cons over the Liberals with the NDP up 2%.
Two thirds (67%) say it is time for another party to govern.
Cons 35%
Libs 30%
NDP 20%
PPC 3%
Greens 3%
Others 2%
Unsure 14%
Not voting 10%
As Pierre Poilievre settles in as the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News shows the Conservatives have opened a 5-point lead over the Liberals.
If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre would receive 35% of the decided national popular vote, up 1 point since the federal election. Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party would receive 30% of the vote, down 3 points since the election. The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, would receive 20% support, up 2 points, while Yves-Francois Blanchet and the Bloc Quebecois would receive 7% of the vote nationally, down 1 point, equating to 32% in Quebec. Support for Maxime Bernier and the People’s Party would come in at 3% (down 2 points), while 3% would vote for the leaderless Green Party, up 1 point, and 2% would vote for some other party. One in ten (10%) say they would not vote, while 14% are unsure of who they would vote for in the next federal election.
The Tories lead in every province west of Quebec, while the Liberals lead the Tories in Quebec and Atlantic Canada:
- In British Columbia, the Conservatives (39%) are ahead of the Liberals (34%), NDP (20%), Green (5%), PPC (1%) and other parties (1%).
- In Alberta, the Conservatives (52%) have a commanding lead over the NDP (20%), Liberals (17%), Green (1%) or other parties (9%).
- In Saskatchewan and Manitoba (54%), the Conservative lead over the Liberals (23%), NDP (16%), PPC (4%), and Greens (2%) is solid.
- In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (37%) have the advantage over the Liberals (30%), NDP (23%), the Greens (4%), PPC (4%) and others (2%).
- In Quebec, the Bloc (32%) and the Liberals (31%) are tied, well ahead of the Conservatives (20%), NDP (12%), PPC (2%), Greens (1%) and others (2%).
- In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (39%) lead the NDP (28%), Conservatives (26%), PPC (4%) and Greens (3%).
As the Liberal government grows longer in the tooth, four in ten (42%) approve (8% strongly/34% somewhat) of its performance under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, down 4 points from Ipsos’ final poll prior to the 2021 election. Conversely, six in ten disapprove (33% strongly/25% somewhat). It is interesting to note that the proportion strongly disapproving of the government’s performance is four-times greater than the proportion of Canadians who strongly approve.
Government approval ratings are highest in BC (53%) and Atlantic Canada (49%) and lower in Ontario (43%), Quebec (38%), Alberta (30%), and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (30%). Those aged 18-34 are much more approving (49%) than those aged 35-54 (38%) or 55+ (40%). Women (47%) are significantly more likely than men (36%) to approve of the Liberal Government’s performance.
A third (33%) of Canadians believe the Trudeau government has done a good job and deserves re-election (down 4 points since the election), while two in three (67%) say that it is time for another party to take over in Ottawa. Those in Atlantic Canada (39%), Ontario (37%) and BC (36%) are most likely to say the incumbent Liberals deserve re-election, while residents of Quebec (30%), Alberta (27%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (27%) are less likely to agree. Those aged 18-34 are most likely to believe the government deserves re-election (38%), followed by those aged 55+ (35%) and 35-54 (29%). Women (37%) are also more likely than men (30%) to feel this way.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/newly-elected-poilievre-conservat...
Some of those numbers are more interesting to me than the others.
2021 - Trudeau won with 32.62%, Conservatives lost with 33.74, and (NDP 17.82.)
I'm surprised the 67% isn't higher but I think it is high enough to deem the next election what they call a "change election" which benefits the Conservatives.
That benefit seems to be there in these numbers. People are simply saying it's time for a change and the Conservatives have always been the alternative in the past.
Another way to look at the numbers is Liberal/NDP 50%, Conservatives 35%.
In 2015 the numbers swung radically between the NDP and the Liberals. I will never forget the NDP taking the lead over both the Conservatives and Liberals if only for the blink of an eye. When it looked like Trudeau would lose the election Liberals moved to the NDP. When Trudeau recovered NDP voters moved to the Liberals. In both cases the vote went to whichever party could beat the Conservatives. There is no other reason for the vote to have switched back and forth like that.
Poilievre is polarizing. NDP/Liberal voters are going to hate him and swing to whichever party can beat him. That will probably be Trudeau as the Liberals still have 42% approval rating.
In Canada we elect MP's not PM's or parties. I live in a riding that swings between the NDP and Conservatives. The Liberals never contend for the seat but those voters who have voted BC Liberal and federal Conservative can make the difference between the two parties. Of interest in the last two elections the NDP outspent their opposition.
I'm surprised the 67% isn't higher but I think it is high enough to deem the next election what they call a "change election" which benefits the Conservatives.
I'd call that an understatement. While it is not impossible for the Liberals to win, if, for example, is under reasonable control when the election is called, if the economy is in decent shape and if the Cons have a laughable climate crisis plan, then the Liberals could win as the lesser evil, but that is a lot of iffing. The Liberals have been able to get away with a totally inadequate climate crisis plan that peaks at maximum oil production in 2039 well above today's level and barely falls by 205o because the Cons have next to nothing (https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/canada-energy-future/2020/res...). As more severe and more frequent global warming disasters such as Hurricane Fiona that tore through Atlantic Canada, Hurricane Ian that is now devastating Florida, the heat wave, floods and wildfires that killed more than 600 people in BC in 2021, the flooding of one third of Pakistan this year etc. etc. more people will start to demand more in the way of dealing with the climate crisis. The question is when will this hit a critical mass as the climate crisis continues to grow exponentially.
That poll looks no different than many of the polls in the lead up to the last 2 elections. There's a decent chance there won't be an election for another 3 years. So people shouldn't get worked up about current polls.
Nanos poll Sept. 30-Oct. 3
Cons 33%
Libs 29%
NDP 23%
Bloc 6%
Greens 5%
PPC 2%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Leger Poll Oct. 10
Cons 33%
Libs 31%
NDP 21%
Bloc 8%
Greens 3%
PPC 2%
Others 1%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Nanos poll Oct. 21
Cons 36%
Libs 30%
NDP 17%
Bloc 8%
Greens 4%
PPC 4%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Whatever Pierre effect there was is waning. The last two polls are within the margin of error of 2021 election results for all parties except PPC which is slightly below the margin of error
Nov. 13 Leger
Cons 34%
Libs 32%
NDP 19%
Bloc 7%
Greens 4%
PPC 2%
Nov. 14 Innovative Research
Cons 33%
Libs 32%
NDP 18%
Bloc 7%
Greens 6%
PPC 2%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
The latest Nanos poll shows the Liberals as 31.0% with a less than 1% lead over the Cons at 30.3%, a statistical tie, and the NDP trending up at 22.5%.
Nov. 25
Libs 31.0%
Cons 30.3%
NDP 22.5%
Bloc 7.1%
Greens 4.8%
PPC 3.4%
Others -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Nanos Poll Dec. 9
Cons 33.6%
Libs 30.3%
NDP 20.9%
Bloc 5.5%
Greens 5.0%
PPC 2.6%
Others -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Abacus Poll Dec. 10
Cons 36%
Libs 30%
NDP 19%
Bloc 6%
Greens 4%
PPC 4%
Others 1%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Leger Poll Dec. 11
Cons 33%
Libs 30%
NDP 21%
Bloc 7%
Greens 4%
PPC 4%
Others 2%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Meet our next Prime Minister, Yves Blanchet. Charts for data on the leaders and issues can be seen at the url below.
Federal Party Favorabilty Ratings Angus Reid Dec.19 2022
[Very Favourable + Favourable] / [Very Unfavourable + Unfavourable] = +/-
Trudeau 42/53 = -9
Polievre 32/53 = -21
Singh 47/45 =+2
Blanchet 47/38 = +9
A new study from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre provoking more reaction from his predecessors, but perhaps not in the way he may want.
Asked how they view Poilievre, Canadians are much more likely to actually have an opinion of him at this point in his tenure compared to past CPC leaders. Early term uncertainty, however, has mostly been replaced with acrimony. One-in-three (33%) view Poilievre favourably, while more than half (54%) hold a negative view. These levels of unfavourable sentiment are much higher than those of previous leaders Andrew Scheer, Erin O’Toole, and Stephen Harper at the beginning of their own leadership ventures.
Of those who have occupied Stornoway in the 21st century, only Harper was met with majority positive sentiment after taking the job.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau,
meanwhile, enjoys a five-point boost in
his approval compared to summer levels. He’s viewed positively by more than two-in-five (43%). Trudeau appeared at public hearings in November to defend his February decision to invoke the Emergencies Act in response to deeply unpopular “freedom convoy” protests.An emerging gender divide is unmistakable: Poilievre’s favourability is nearly twice as high among men (44%) as women (23%), while the inverse, though not as pronounced, is true of Trudeau (35% among men, 50% among women).
Both men will have plenty of opportunity to tackle big issues in 2023 and earn more confidence among the population. Canadians head into a new year focused on crumbling health care infrastructure and overwhelming cost of living concerns. These two issues rank atop the list of priorities for every region of the country.
• Trudeau has seen his favourability improve over the year among 18- to 34-year-olds. Two-in-five
(39%) men that age, and half (50%) of women, view him favourably.
• Approaching half of constituents view NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (47%) and Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet (47%, Quebec only) favourably.
• More than half in Alberta (53%) and Saskatchewan (57%) view Poilievre favourably, the only two provinces where that’s the case. Quebecers hold the most unfavourable views, with two-thirds (64%) saying they have negative impressions of Poilievre. ....
Part Two: Top issues
The top issues emerging out of 2022 are those that have defined the better part of the year for many Canadians. While inflation has begun to trend downward in month over month comparisons, the year to
year trend shows a significant increase of nearly seven per cent. This is by far the top concern for Canadians, many of whom have cut back their holiday spending, and cancelled seasonal travel plans this year.
Health care has continued to grow in prominence among Canadian priorities, while the issue that has exacerbated challenges since 2020 – COVID-19 – is now a top priority for just one-in-20. This is a sevenfold decrease compared to the Omicron wave in January of this year (see detailed tables).
There is some agreement among past NDP, Liberal and Bloc Québécois voters on the top issues facing the country – though those who voted Liberal in the 2021 election are the only group of voters to select health care at a higher rate than inflation. Those who voted CPC have different priorities – one-third (33%) believe the deficit is a top challenge for the country and approaching three-in-ten say the economy (28%) and taxes (29%). All three of those issues rank outside of the top five for voters of the other major parties:
The top two issues are the same in every region of the country (see detailed tables), but there are varying levels of importance for each across age and gender. Young men show far less concern about health care than their similarly aged female counterparts. Young people are also more interested in climate change and housing affordability than their older peers:
https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022.12.19_Federal_Lead...
https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022.12.19_Federal_Lead...
Nanos election poll Jan. 6
Cons 34%
Libs 29%
NDP 22%
Bloc 6%
Greens 6%
PPC 3%
Others --
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Nanos election poll Jan. 13
Cons 35.6%
Libs 28.3%
NDP 20.7%
Bloc 7.4%
Greens 5.8%
PPC 2.1%
Others --
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Jan.26 2023 Leger poll
https://leger360.com/surveys/legers-north-american-tracker-january-26-2023/
Pollara Strategic Insights
@Pollara
Vote Intent Decided (Jan 23-Feb 6, n = 3850)
CPC 32%
Lib 32%
NDP 20%
BQ 8%
GP 4%
PPC 3%
Abacus Poll Feb 9-18 2023
CPC 37%
Lib 29%
NDP 18%
BQ 7%
GP 4%
PPC 4%
If an election were held today, among committed voters, 37% would vote for the Conservative Party (unchanged from last month), 29% for the Liberal Party (down 2), 18% for the NDP and 7% for the BQ. These numbers are the exact same as our last poll at the end of January.
The Conservatives are ahead in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Conservatives also have a small 3-point advantage in Ontario. In Quebec, the BQ is slightly ahead of the Liberals, although the Liberal vote has dropped over the past few weeks. Compared with the end of November 2022, Liberal support in Quebec is down 6 points and it is down 5 points since the end of January.
Public feelings about Prime Minister Trudeau have remained relatively stable over the past few months. Today, the Prime Minister’s net favourable rating is -16 with 32% having a positive impression and 48% having a negative impression of him. Among Liberal supporters, his net rating is +73.
https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-polling-abacus-data-february-2023/
Nanos Poll Feb. 14
CPC 32.9%
Lib 33.1
NDP 20.5%
BQ 6.4%
GP 4.1%
PPC 2.8%
"The importance of healthcare as a
top national issue of concern is up
five points in four weeks and is
clearly ahead of all other issues as a focus of Canadians."
https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Political-Package-2023-02-10...
Pollara Poll Feb. 6
CPC 32%
Lib 32%
NDP 20%
BQ 8%
GP 4%
PPC 3%
• Support levels for the major parties are around 2021 election levels. The Conservatives and Liberals are tied at 32%, with the NDP in third at 20%.
– Support levels have been relatively stable since November, with the Liberals and Conservatives within 3 points of each other every month over this period.
The Liberals and Conservatives are currently tied at 35% in Ontario, and have been within 2 points of each other each of the last four months. This leaves the Conservatives exactly at their 2021 support levels in Ontario, with the Liberals down 4 and the NDP up 4.
The Liberals and Conservatives both have an older skew in their support levels, with the NDP leading among young voters. Liberal support is similar among men and women, with the Conservatives stronger among men and the NDP stronger among women.
https://www.pollara.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Decided_Vote_Media_Re...
Federal Polling: CPC: 34% (-)
LPC: 30% (-3)
NDP: 20% (+2)
BQ: 9% (+1)
GPC: 5% (+3)
PPC: 3% (-2)
Nanos Research / March 3, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone (% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
According to the latest Angus Reid poll, Trudeau's approval rating has dropped 6% and the Liberals are now 6% behind the Cons and just 9% ahead of the NDP as economic and election integrity issues continue to grow in people's minds, even though "Poilievre lags in likeability, while his party lags in must-win areas."
Weeks of questions over potential foreign interference in Canadian elections – and the federal government’s handling of the issue – have taken their toll on the approval of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but perception problems for the Conservatives in key battlegrounds – Quebec and major urban centres – leave the questions as yet unanswered over whether the CPC can capitalize on its lead in vote intention.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute, canvassing almost 5,000 Canadians, finds Trudeau’s approval (37%) has slipped six points in the last three months. And even though the Liberals trail in vote intent almost everywhere in the country (35% CPC to 29% Liberal overall), CPC party leader Pierre Poilievre lags in likeability, while his party lags in must-win areas.
Trudeau is much more positively appraised in Quebec (36% to 24%), and slightly more so in Ontario (41% to 34%) and British Columbia (38% to 33%), than Poilievre. The CPC continue to have ground to make up in Quebec, as they (21%) find themselves behind the Liberals (28%) and Bloc Québécois (33%).
There continues to be a demographic divide between the two political rivals. The CPC would earn a plurality of votes from men of all ages if an election were to be held tomorrow as Poilievre is viewed much more favourably among men (43%) than women (25%), although he has made incremental progress on this front. The Liberals lead in vote intent among only one demographic – women over the age of 54 – despite Trudeau’s higher approval among women.
Another issue for Trudeau and the Liberals in the party’s third term in power is the fatigue factor. The party’s 2021 supporters are less likely than other partisans to say they will vote Liberal again if an election were held tomorrow. Three-quarters (73%) of those who voted Liberal in 2021 would repeat their vote, fewer than those who voted CPC (87%), NDP (80%) or Bloc Québécois (86%). For the Liberals, this represents an 11-point decline in vote retention since January 2022.
More Key Findings:
- Three-in-five (59%) believe inflation to be a top issue facing Canada. Half (48%) select health care. Both significantly outpace other concerns such as housing affordability (27%), the environment (23%) and the economy (19%).
- A plurality in Metro Vancouver, Montreal and the 416 and 905 area codes of Toronto say they would vote Liberal if an election were held tomorrow. However, in the latter most, the gap between the Liberals and the CPC is not as large as the other major cities.
- Though women still are more likely to view Poilievre negatively than positively, he has gained four points of favourability (22% to 26%) among women over the age of 54 since December. Trudeau, meanwhile, has seen his approval among that demographic decline by seven points (53% to 46%).
https://angusreid.org/federal-politics-trudeau-poilievre-cpc-liberals/
EKOS Poll March 17
CPC: 31.4%
LPC: 28.2%
NDP: 25.0%
BQ: 6.0%
GPC: 4.8%
PPC: 3.6%
Other 1%
Leader Approval/Disapproval
Blanchet +17
Singh +8
May -3
Trudeau -18
Poilievre -28
A deeply polarized electorate is divided three ways and no party has a clear path to power, a new EKOS poll has found. At 31 points, the Conservative Party has a three-point lead over the governing Liberals, who are at 28 per cent. Over the past few months, the Liberals have been losing ground to the third-place NDP who, at 25 points, are enjoying their highest standing since 2015, though these numbers would be well short of propelling Jagmeet Singh to victory if an election were held tomorrow.
The Conservative Party has a modest but significant lead, but the party is showing few signs of progress beyond its populist bedrock. Indeed, our data on second choice reveal few opportunities for growth from the centre, with some exposure to losses to the People’s Party on the far right. The Poilievre-led Conservatives find themselves in the conundrum of trying to court the centre-leaning voters without alienating the party’s “freedom” base. As usual, the party’s support is heavily concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which would lead to poor seat efficiency if an election were held tomorrow. Conservative support is also focused among men ages 35 to 64.
The Liberals have nothing to cheer about either. They are down five points from their 2021 election showing, owing mostly to poor support among youth. It is important to note that under-50 Canada looks very different across genders; whereas under-50 male Canada leans to small-c conservative options, under-50 female Canada leans NDP, both groups where the Liberals are being squeezed out. However, the Liberals do extremely well with the most reliable voting cohort – seniors – and the party still leads in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec, meaning these support levels may provide a deceptively low picture of what would actually happen in an election.
The erosion in Liberal support appears to have largely benefited the NDP. However, while this finding might look like good news for the NDP on the surface, the backbone of NDP support is largely made up of young people, particularly women under 35 where the party sits at an astonishing 53 points. The youth cohort – those under 35 – is a particularly fluid group and their loyalty could quickly swing back to the Liberals without notice. Furthermore, young people often have some of the lowest voter turnout rates in the country and the party’s surge with this group may not actually translate to votes. However, the NDP now lead with university graduates who, in contrast to young people, are a more reliable source of votes. The party also does quite well in Singh’s home territory of British Columbia, which also has a favourably-viewed NDP government.
At just four per cent nationally, support for the People’s Party is less than half what it was a year ago and its constituency is made up almost entirely of the strongest supporters of the so-called freedom movement that blockaded border crossings and shut down the capital in 2022. Indeed, the partisan links to the freedom movement are profound; support for the freedom movement is almost exclusive to supporters of the Conservative Party and People’s Party, while the movement is greeted with disdain everywhere else. ...
Another source of exposure for the Conservatives is Pierre Poilievre’s low approval score. Just 29 per cent of Canadians approve of how he is handling his job, while nearly twice that many – 57 per cent – disapprove. Justin Trudeau enjoys the approval of 38 per cent of Canadians (compared to 56 who disapprove), while Singh is the only one of the three main party leaders who enjoys a net-positive approval rating (47 per cent, compared to 39 per cent who disapprove). Yves-François Blanchet enjoys the approval of half of Quebecers (49 per cent), while Elizabeth May’s approval score has fallen to just 29 per cent; indeed, 39 per cent of respondents declined to opine on May, suggesting many Canadians do not even realize she is once again the party’s leader.
Approval scores for Trudeau and Singh are relatively stable. While we have no direct means of tracking Poilievre’s approval through time (given the recency of his ascendance to leader of the Conservative Party), we asked a similarly-worded question in September 2022 where respondents were asked to rate their impression of him as favourable, unfavourable, or neutral. Those expressing a negative view outnumbered those holding a positive view by 20 points; today, that gap has expanded to nearly 30 points.
Also notable is the dramatic correlation between Conservative support and disinformation, a link that is even stronger among People’s Party supporters. Among the fully informed (i.e., those who score 0 on our disinformation index), Conservative support sits at just 12 per cent. Among the least informed cohort, Conservative support soars to 68 per cent. Likewise, People’s Party support rises from literally 0 per cent to 12 per cent along the disinformation spectrum. ...
Finally, on a more positive note for the Conservatives, it is worth mentioning that the party holds a commanding lead among private sector union members, while the NDP does very well with the public sector. The Liberal Party, meanwhile, is getting squeezed out of the labour vote altogether.
All in all, this poll reveals significant movements among the electorate. There are now the starkest of divisions on institutional trust (the open-ordered axis), the informed versus disinformed, and those supporting the freedom movement. The ordered pole – or the populist pole – comprises about 36 per cent of Conservative and People’s Party voters. The rest of Canada are largely informed, moderately trusting, and hold the freedom movement in sharp disapproval. The ordered side is the most loyal, while the open side is more fluid. We have renewed evidence of oscillations among “promiscuous progressive” voters. However, none of these movements have done anything to produce clear path to a majority government for any party. Rather, the Canadian electorate continues to be gridlocked.
https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2023/03/polarized-gridlock/
(self-delete. It was a comment on the poll graphics, but then I realized I was reading the graphics wrong).
Two things: I note is that the NDP cannot win even a minority government running at 26% in Ontario and 16% in Quebec. Secondly it seems that people over 65 are not as conservative as some of the younger demographics.
Average of last five polls (March 13 to March 24) for each party
CPC: 33.7%
LPC: 28.8%
NDP: 20.4%
BQ: 7.4%
GPC: 4.6%
PPC: 4.0%
Other 0.6%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Federal Polling:
CPC: 36% (+2)
LPC: 28% (-5)
NDP: 20% (+2)
BQ: 6% (-2)
GPC: 5% (+3)
PPC: 4% (-1)
Nanos Research / March 31, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone (% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Leger Poll April 10 2023
Canada
CPC: 34%
LPC: 30%
NDP: 21%
BQ: 8%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 3%
Other 1%
BC
CPC: 31%
LPC: 30%
NDP: 31%
Greens 4%
Ontario
CPC: 35%
LPC: 32%
NDP: 24%
Quebec
CPC: 17%
LPC: 32%
NDP: 13%
Bloc 33%
Alberta
CPC: 55%
LPC: 22%
NDP: 17%
Best PM
Trudeau 23%
Poilievre 21%
Singh 17%
https://legermarketing.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Le...
Best Prime Minister Nanos April 7
Poilievre 26.9%
Trudeau 25.9%
Singh 18.1%
Blanchet 3.7%
May 3.3%
Bernier 2.2%
https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Political-Package-2023-04-14...
Nanos Poll April 14 2023 (% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Canada
CPC: 34% (0%)
LPC: 31% (-2%)
NDP: 21% (+3%)
BQ: 6% (-2%)
GPC: 5% (+3%)
PPC: 3% (-2%)
https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1648824538946506753
Nanos Research / April 21, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone (% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
CPC: 34% (-)
LPC: 31% (-2)
NDP: 21% (+3)
BQ: 6% (-2)
GPC: 4% (+2)
PPC: 3% (-2)
https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1651384206755258371
From April 28 to May 3, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,750 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this analysis, I update our regular tracking of opinions and attitudes toward Canadian politics with a specific focus on the Liberal Party as its policy convention is set to begin in Ottawa today.
Conservatives and Liberals remain statistically tied.
If an election was held at the time of the survey, the Conservatives would get 33% of the vote (unchanged from our last survey) the Liberals would get 31% (unchanged) and the NDP is in third at 19% (up 1). The BQ is at 7% nationally, the People’s Party at 5% and the Greens at 4%.
Regionally, the Conservatives have a slight lead in BC and a large lead in the Prairies. The Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied in Ontario while the Liberals and BQ are statistically tied in Quebec. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have a 9-point lead over the Conservatives. All of these results are in line with your previous survey.
The Liberals are slightly ahead of the Conservatives among those under 30 while the Conservatives have a 10-point lead among those aged 45 to 59. The parties are statistically tied among those aged 30 to 44 and 60+.
We find a large gender gap in vote intentions. The Conservatives lead by 9 among men while the Liberals are ahead by 4 among women. NDP support is 9 points higher (24%) among women than it is among men (15%).
https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-polling-abacus-data-may-2023/
Nanos poll May 12 2023
Federal Polling:
CPC: 36% (+2)
LPC: 27% (-6)
NDP: 22% (+4)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 4% (+2)
https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1658505361614053376PPC: 4% (-1) Nanos Research / May 12, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone (% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Nanos Research / May 26, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone (% Change Compared With 2021 Federal Election)
CPC: 33% (-1)
LPC: 28% (-5)
NDP: 24% (+6)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 4% (+2)
PPC: 3% (-2)
https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1663634022134677507
Those Nanos polls are showing an erosion in Liberal support (mainly going to the NDP).
Meanwhile, today's Léger poll shows the Liberals in the lead. So who knows what is going on.
LPC 33%
CPC 31%
NDP 19%
BQ 8% (34% in Qc)
GPC 6%
PPC 2%
Who knows? However, for the third consecutive poll Nanos, the latest dated June 2nd has the NDP at 24%. The Liberals had trailed the Cons for 21 consecutive polls by numerous polling companies before Leger produced a poll with the Liberals in the lead by 2%. In the latest June 2nd Nanos poll they trail the Cons by 3% and are just 5% ahead of the NDP. Right now, the polls generally speaking, seem to be in a holding pattern.
Nanos Research / June 2, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone (% Change Compared With 2021 Federal Election)
CPC: 32% (-2)
LPC: 29% (-4)
NDP: 24% (+6)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 4% (+2)
PPC: 3% (-2)
Others --
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
According to the latest Angus Reid poll, the Liberals are losing support because of economic conditions, with the NDP picking the greater share of this support (15% of disaffected Liberal voters overall) while the Cons are picking up 5%, with the strongest drop-off in Liberal support being among the most fiancially stressed by the cost of living.
The Bank of Canada raised its touchstone interest rate 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent this week, the first such hike since January, returning the cost of borrowing to a level not seen in more than 20 years.
The latest increase, made in an ongoing attempt to curb persistent inflation, is bad news for both mortgage holders and renters, and new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute also reveals the amount of damage it has been doing to the governing Liberals politically.
This latest public opinion survey finds overwhelming concern among Canadians over the cost of living now correlating with a loss of voter support for the ruling party, particularly among its own support-base. Past Liberal voters appear to be moving elsewhere in search of relief.
The central bank’s rate hike has been called a “a disaster for many Canadians” by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, as he points the finger at government spending and budget deficits for causing the inflation that initiated the BoC’s response. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland countered that inflation is global in nature, and highlighted the strength of the Canadian economy overall.
Poilievre’s economic message appears to be resonating. Currently, 37 per cent of leaning and decided voters say they would vote for the Conservative candidate in their riding if an election were held, compared to 29 per cent support for the Liberals and 20 per cent for the NDP. Among those faring the worst financially – those “Struggling” on ARI’s Economic Stress Index – half (51%) would vote for the CPC while approximately one-third as many would vote for the Liberals (18%) or NDP (16%).
These economic concerns appear to be driving a dissatisfaction with the incumbent Liberals among its own party supporters. Among those who supported the LPC in 2021 41 per cent of the Struggling would not commit to supporting the party again, alongside 44 per cent of the Uncomfortable.
The overall trend for the Liberals is likely disconcerting to party strategists. In late 2021, after the party had succeeded in winning a minority government, 80 per cent of Liberal voters said they would support the party again if an election were held. This dropped to 72 per cent by the end of 2022 and has dropped to 67 per cent overall this month. Perhaps softening this blow, however, is the fact that the largest portion of these former Liberal supporters say they would vote for the NDP (15%), who have been supporting the minority Liberal government with a confidence-and-supply agreement since the last election.
Meantime, the opposition Conservatives retain much of their 2021 support, with 84 per cent of voters voicing an intention to return to the fold. The party’s overall vote intention proportion is largely unchanged over the past 16 months, hovering between 35 and 37 per cent nationally.
More Key Findings:
- Cost of living is the top issue chosen by 63 per cent of Canadians. Next is health care, chosen by almost half (46%), followed by housing affordability (30%) and climate change (25%).
- Ontario remains competitive between the Liberals and Conservatives. Two-in-five Ontarians (38%) say they would support the CPC if an election were held, while 35 per cent would vote for the Liberals.
- Vancouver and Winnipeg are dead heats, with a near exact number of residents in both saying they would support the CPC, Liberals, and NDP in an election (all receive between 30 and 32 per cent vote intention).
- The Liberals maintain an advantage in the Toronto core (42% LPC, 23% CPC), but are statistically tied with the opposition CPC in the surrounding suburban areas of the 905 (41% LPC, 39% CPC).
Part One: Top issues
There are three weeks left of sittings in the House of Commons until summer recess and the Liberal government has yet to pass its budget bill. The Conservative opposition, led by Pierre Poilievre, is threatening to block the budget by introducing hundreds of amendments and filibustering unless the Liberal government led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets its demands – halting increases to the carbon tax and setting out a plan to balance the budget.
Poilievre says Canadians “cannot afford” any additional increases to the carbon tax, which will affect the prices of gas, heat and groceries. He also says inflation, a persistent issue since the relaxation of public health restrictions beginning in early 2022, is being driven by government spending and debt. The Bank of Canada argues inflation is being caused by spikes in commodity prices, a surge in demand, impaired supply chains, and labour shortages as it hiked its key policy rate again this week.
Amid these ongoing fiscal challenges, a majority (63%) of Canadians believe the rising cost of living to be one of the top issues facing the country. This issue far outpaces health care (46%), housing affordability (30%) and the environment (25%) as a top concern.
This holds true across the country, as the rising cost of living is the top issue selected in every province. From B.C. to Newfoundland and Labrador, at least three-in-five and as many as three-quarters believe inflation is one of the country’s top challenges:
Cost of living is selected as the top issue facing the country by men and women of all ages – except women over the age of 54. Men, meanwhile, are more likely to be preoccupied with government spending and the deficit (see detailed tables for the full list of issues). ...
At least half of all age groups believe cost of living is a top issue facing the country. There is more disagreement on the issues of health care – which older Canadians are more likely to choose – and housing affordability – selected more commonly by younger Canadians. On the issue of government spending, Canadians over the age of 65 are twice as likely to care about it (17%) than those aged 18 to 24 (8%, see detailed tables).
Part Two: Economic stress and vote intention
Liberal vote retention slides
To fight inflation, the Bank of Canada began a series of interest rate hikes beginning in March 2022. While these increases in the cost of borrowing have had the desired effect of slowing inflation – more or less – it has also put pressure on mortgage holders and many other Canadians holding consumer debt. Renters, too, have felt the pressure, as their landlords have passed on their own increased borrowing costs.
After taking a pause for two rate cycles, the Bank of Canada hiked its key policy rate again this week, further increasing the cost of borrowing as the bank continues to attempt to bring inflation in line with its two per cent target. It also signalled that more rate hikes may be coming, a worrying sign for Canadians already struggling with their mortgage payments, credit card balances and other consumer debts.
These financial pressures come into play when it comes to Canadians assessments of the current federal government, and whether or not past supporters of the governing Liberal party would vote for them again now.
Past Liberal voters are much more likely to endorse the party again if they are in a better financial situation. Three-quarters (74%) of those who voted Liberal in 2021 and are Thriving financially say they would vote again for the Liberals. This falls to below three-in-five among the Struggling (59%) and Uncomfortable (56%).
Overall, two-thirds (67%) of those who voted Liberal in 2021 say they would vote Liberal again if there were an election today. Of the one-third who say they would place their vote elsewhere, half (15%) say they would vote NDP, while equal proportions would vote CPC (5%) or another party (6%). Approaching one-in-ten (7%) say they are undecided how they would vote:
Since the 2021 federal election, Liberal voter retention has been steadily declining. While the NDP have benefitted the most from this movement away from the governing party, there is an increase in the number of past Liberal voters who say they would vote CPC or another party, and among those who aren’t sure: ...
Part Three: Vote intention
Since Poilievre has taken over the Conservative party leadership, the CPC have held a lead in vote intent. Two-in-five (37%) Canadians say they would vote Conservative if an election were held today. Three-in-ten (29%) say they would vote Liberal, while one-in-five (20%) would vote NDP. These figures have been consistent since September last year:
Vote by Economic Stress Index
Canada’s economic picture may be playing a significant factor as Canadians weigh where they would place their vote in a potential election. Poilievre’s messaging around inflation, and warnings around the effects of further carbon tax increases, appear to be resonating with Canadians who are under financial pressure. Half (51%) of the Struggling by the Economic Stress Index say they would CPC if an election were held. The CPC hold a lead, too, among those who are Uncomfortable. Meanwhile, a plurality of the Comfortable and the Thriving would vote for the governing Liberal party:
Vote by region
In three key battleground provinces, the Liberals trail in current vote intention. The CPC leads the NDP by 10 points in B.C., while holding a slight edge over the Liberals in Ontario. The Bloc Québécois are the preferred party of a plurality of Quebecers.
Elsewhere, the CPC hold the lead in all three prairie provinces, while the Liberals are tied for the lead in vote intention, or hold it outright, in three of the Atlantic provinces:
Canada’s major metropolitan centres are home to some astonishingly close races. Consider that in both Metro Vancouver and Winnipeg – within ARI’s boundary definitions, home to 22 federal ridings – almost exactly three-in-ten residents in each say they would vote for the CPC, Liberals or NDP. The Liberals maintain a key advantage in Toronto core, while tied with the CPC in the surrounding suburban 905 region:
Vote by age and gender
Men prefer the Conservatives by wide margins. Women aged 35 and older are the most likely to say they would vote Liberal if an election were held today. Two-in-five women aged 18 to 34 say they would vote NDP, the only demographic where the NDP hold a lead in vote intention:
https://angusreid.org/bank-of-canada-federal-politics-liberals-conservat...
This sounds like it's the kind of moment where the Liberals would usually start banging on and on about "strategic voting". Anybody think this might be a year in which they'd be willing to try a "strategic voting" approach that worked both ways- that is, where they'd call on their supporters to vote for the NDP/Greens/BQ in ridings where those party's candidates would have the better chance of beating the Con candidate?
Or should I assume they will once again be saying "vote Red-even where we're dead!"?
Mainstreet Research Poll June 8 2023
Cons 35%
Libs 29%
NDP 21%
Bloc 5%
Greens 5%
PPC 2%
Others 3%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Abacus Poll June 13 2023
81% want a change of government but 31% don't like any of the alternatives
Only 20% think the Liberals should be re-elected
"This group (31%) – those who want change but aren’t completely comfortable with the alternatives – will decide the next election."
(% Change Compared With 2021 Federal Election)
CPC: 35% (+1)
LPC: 28% (-5)
NDP: 21% (+3)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 4% (+2)
PPC: 4% (-1)
Impressions of Party Leaders
Trudeau -19
Poilievre -8
Singh +6
Overall, 81% of Canadians believe it is time for a change in government. 20% believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. But among the 81% who want change, 31% say there isn’t a good alternative to the Liberals they are comfortable with.
Those who want change but say they are not comfortable with any of the alternatives to the Liberals are:
- Slightly more likely to be women than men (55% to 45%)
- 45% voted Liberal in 2021. 21% voted NDP and 13% voted Conservative.
- 50% self-identify as being centrist, 36% are on the left side of the spectrum and 14% are on the right.
- 28% have a positive impression of Justin Trudeau while 41% have a negative one. 29% have a neutral impression of the Liberal leader
- 27% are currently undecided when asked how they would vote today, significantly higher than the other two groups (those who want change and think there’s an alternative and those who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected)
More interesting is how these three groups say they would vote if an election was today.
Among those who want change and think there’s a good alternative, 56% would vote Conservative, 25% NDP and 6% would vote Liberal.
Among those who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, 77% would vote Liberal, 11% NDP, and 6% BQ. Only 2% would vote Conservative.
Among the 31% who want change but don’t think there’s a good alternative they are comfortable with, 33% would vote Liberal, 22% NDP, 19% Conservative, and 14% BQ.
This group – those who want change but aren’t completely comfortable with the alternatives – will decide the next election. And right now, enough of them are staying with the Liberals giving them a shot at re-election. If any of the opposition parties can make themselves more appealing, that becomes a dangerous place for the Liberals.
Despite the desire for change, 46% of adults say they would consider voting Liberal, an accessible voter pool that hasn’t changed much over the past two and half years. This means while there is a desire for change, many haven’t completely closed the door to voting Liberal.
Current Vote Intention
If an election was held today, the Conservatives would get 35% (up 2 since mid-May), the Liberals at 28% (down 2), the NDP at 21% (up 3) with the BQ at 7% nationally. Numerically, this is the lowest we’ve had the Liberals over the past year.
Regionally, the Conservatives are ahead in the Prairies, are statistically tied with the NDP in BC, statistically tied with the Liberals in Ontario, and are at 30% in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are statistically tied with the BQ in Quebec and ahead in Atlantic Canada.
By age, the NDP is numerically ahead among those under 30 but its support shrinks among older age groups. The Liberals get about 25 to 30% across all age groups while the Conservatives lead among those 45 and over.
Party Leader Impressions
Impressions of Justin Trudeau are largely unchanged from last month. 30% have a positive impression while 49% have a negative impression for an overall score of -19. Trudeau’s scores across the country are -22 in BC, -42 in Alberta, – 49 in SK and MB, -16 in Ontario, -6 in Quebec, and -4 in Atlantic Canada.
Both positive and negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre have increased over the past month. Today 32% have a positive impression while 40% have a negative impression for an overall score of -8. Over the past 6 weeks, Mr. Poilievre’s negatives have risen by 5 points from 35% in early May to 40% today. Poilievre’s scores across the country are -4 in BC, +15 in Alberta, +5 in SK and MB, -5 in Ontario, -31 in Quebec, and -10 in Atlantic Canada.
Jagmeet Singh remains the most popular leader in the country with 38% having a positive impression (up 4 in 6 weeks) and 32% having a negative view for a score of +6. Singh’s scores across the country are +16 in BC, -13 in Alberta, -7 in SK and MB, +7 in Ontario, +5 in Quebec, and +28 in Atlantic Canada.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “The opinion environment for the Liberal government is quite challenging. 80% of Canadians say they want change and only 20% think the government deserves to be re-elected.
Despite this, the Liberals are still competitive because about 1 in 3 Canadians who want change, don’t feel there’s an acceptable or comfortable alternative to the Liberals. Most of them are voting for an opposition party, if an election was held today, but not all of them. A third is sticking with the Liberals, despite wanting change.
This dynamic indicates a complex and nuanced political environment in Canada, reflecting a broad dissatisfaction with the current Liberal government, yet also a degree of apprehension about alternatives.
While it might seem like a grim outlook with 80% of the populace desiring change, the Liberals can find some solace in the fact that a notable fraction of those yearning for change still doesn’t see a viable alternative. This can be seen as a testament to the government’s relative stability or the perception of the Liberals as the lesser of multiple evils. However, this shouldn’t invite complacency, but rather it should serve as a wake-up call to address public discontent. The Liberals need to reexamine and realign their policies with public sentiment to re-establish trust and strengthen their electability.
For opposition parties, these results are both an opportunity and a challenge. The desire for change signifies widespread discontent, creating a political vacuum that they can fill. However, the inability of a substantial fraction of voters to identify a comfortable alternative underscores a failure on the opposition’s part to present a compelling, viable vision for leadership. To capitalize on this scenario, opposition parties need to effectively communicate their policies, presenting clear, tangible alternatives to the current government’s approach. The closer we get to an election, the more the acceptability of the opposition parties will be under scrutiny.
From a broader perspective, this situation illustrates a common dilemma in many democracies: the desire for change coupled with the fear of the unknown. While change is often seen as a positive, progressive force, it can also introduce uncertainty. When voters are unsure of the alternatives, they may opt for the status quo, even if they’re dissatisfied with it. This dynamic can stagnate political landscapes and force a more polarizing, negative type of politics.”
https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-polling-abacus-data-june-2023/
Nanos Research / June 13 (% Change Compared With 2021 Federal Election)
CPC: 32% (-2)
LPC: 30% (-3)
NDP: 23% (+5)
BQ: 6% (-2)
GPC: 5% (+3)
PPC: 3% (-2)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_fede...
Conservatives lead Liberals by 10% in latest Abacus poll.
From July 20 to 25, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,486 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. In this survey, we oversample Ontario to a total of 1,004 and Atlantic Canada to 435 .
As the Prime Minister is set to substantially shuffle the Cabinet this morning, the Conservatives have opened up a 10-point lead over the Liberals – 38% to 28% – with the NDP in third at 18%
Since the end up June, the Conservative vote share is up 4, the Liberals are down marginally by 1 while the NDP is down 2.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in BC, Alberta, and in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Poilievre’s Conservatives lead by 6 in Ontario and are tied with the Liberals in Atlantic Canada. Note, we oversampled Atlantic Canada to get a better sense of things in that region and the once Liberal advantage on the east coast seems to be at risk.
The Liberals trail the Conservatives across all age groups, including those under 30. The Conservatives have a 14-point lead among men and a 4-point lead among women.
A few other key finds from the survey:
The federal government’s approval rating is down slightly from the end of June – 32% approve while 51% disapprove. 32% is the lowest approval score we’ve measured since July 2021.
Impressions of the federal leaders are consistent with what we found at the end of June. Justin Trudeau is at -22 (29% positive vs. 51% negative), Pierre Poilievre is -6 (31% positive vs. 37% negative), while Jagmeet Singh is +5 (36% positive vs. 31% negative).
About half of Canadians want a change in government and feel there are good alternatives to the Liberals. This is up 3 since the end of June. 19% say they think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, down 2. The remaining 31% say they think its time for a change, but don’t feel there’s a good alternative.
Among those who think it’s time for a change and think there’s a good alternative, 59% are voting Conservative and 21% are voting NDP. The Conservative share among this group is up 4 since June while the NDP share is done 3. The Conservatives may be consolidating the “change” vote.
Among those who think it’s time for a change but don’t think there’s a good alternative, the Liberal vote share is up, 33% would vote Liberal (+4), 23% would vote Conservative, 19% would vote NDP and 15% would vote BQ.
Among those who think the Liberals and Trudeau deserve to be re-elected, the Liberals get 78% of committed voters compared with 11% for the NDP and 3% for the Conservative.
The top issues of concern are largely unchanged from last month. 72% rate the cost of living as a top 3 issue, followed by healthcare (down 3), housing affordability, the economy, and climate change. Of note, those putting climate change in their top 3 has increased by several points over the past few months.
Also of note, 14% put immigration in their top 3 issues, up 3 points since the end of June.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO: Despite vote share gains in some recent by-elections, the national picture remains quite challenging for the federal Liberals and Prime Minister Trudeau.
Only 19% think the government deserves to be re-elected. They trail the Conservatives by 10 points nationally having lost their advantage in Atlantic Canada, likely losing their lead in Ontario, and trailing the Conservatives badly in BC. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton region in Ontario, the Conservatives lead by 12 in this latest poll.
The Prime Minister’s negatives remain elevated all while the cost of living, healthcare, and housing are in focus for most Canadians.
Today’s cabinet shuffle needs to signal that the government is responding to these concerns and the government should relentlessly focus on those issues.
For the Conservatives, while these results might feel good, there’s evidence that neither Poilievre or the party as a whole is making much progress comforting Canadians with the idea of a future Conservative, Poilievre-led government. This remains a real and present danger for the Conservatives.
1 in 3 Canadians continue to say they want change but don’t feel comfortable with the alternatives. The Conservatives have actually lost ground among this group. Poilievre’s personal numbers haven’t moved and remain better than the Prime Minister’s but many still don’t have a firm sense of him or what he stands for – more to come on that front shortly.
https://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-lead-by-10-on-the-heels-of-the-feder...
