O'Toole's popularity has dropped sharply from 91% at the election date to 59% among Conservative voters and from 38% to 24% among voters in general. This has resulted in the Cons dropping below the Libs 35% to 29%, even though they had a greater voter share in the election, winning 33.74% to the Liberals 32.62% then. It appears that O'Toole's shift to the centre right has not attracted many new voters and has alienated part of his base. Even more troubling for O'Toole is that his disapproval rate among Conservatives has grown from 8% at election time to 31% today.
Trudeau still has a negative approval rating, with with 54% disapproving to 38% approving for a -16% rating, which is in the same ballpark as at election time. So the increase in Liberal support has come from the failure of O'Toole to win the confidence of voters, thanks in part to his avoiding answering some questions, such as which Cons are not vaccinated, and a drop in approval within his own base. O'Toole shift towards the centre is even alienating part of his base and he is now even less popular than Scheer when Scheer quit the leadership.
The NDP is at 20% compared to 17.82% during the election, so the polls shows the Liberals and NDP have grown by approximately the same percentage in voter support. Singh is the most popular leader with 52% approval.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute show Canadians – including those who supported the CPC in September’s federal election – have cooled on O’Toole significantly.
Among past CPC voters favourability towards the leader has plummeted faster – 22 points over two months, from 81 per cent at the beginning of October to 59 per cent at the end of November.
O’Toole’s favourability among all Canadians, which peaked at 38 per cent in the days before the election, has dropped to a new low of 24 per cent.
Facing internal strife and scrutiny over the vaccination status of his caucus, the embattled Conservative chief is today less popular than former leader Andrew Scheer was when he was forced out of the job two years ago.
On the opposite side of the Commons, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s governing Liberal party has enjoyed a modest bump in vote intention since September, rising five points to 35 per cent
However, after failing to secure a majority in back-to-back elections, speculation has begun about Trudeau’s own future as leader of the party, and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, named this week to Forbes’ 100 Most Powerful Women List, has been suggested as a potential replacement. Trudeau, for his part, has said he intends to be at the party’s helm for the next election.
Whoever leads the party into the next election, the Liberals currently hold a six-point advantage in vote intention over the rival Conservatives after a hotly contested campaign two-and-a-half months ago.
More Key Findings:
- One-in-three strongly disapprove of Trudeau, while six per cent strongly approve of him.
- O’Toole favourability is lower among Conservatives now than Scheer was at same time post-election in 2019.
- Liberal support is buoyed by women while the CPC suffer from the shift to the PPC among younger male voters.
While NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet have both seen their favourability ratings hold steady in the wake of the last federal election, CPC leader Erin O’Toole has seen his plummet as he reckons with dissent within his party.
Efforts to rebrand the Conservative Party as more progressive are, in particular, facing resistance and have reignited old ideological and regional schisms. Debates over whether O’Toole should step down as leader that had been percolating since the election took on new meaning recently when Sen. Denise Batters – who was kicked out of the of the national caucus by O’Toole – launched a petition to expedite the leadership review process.
Party insiders have hinted that those who want O’Toole ousted are reaching out to the rank-and-file in an effort to curry favour in preparation for a possible leadership contest. For his part, O’Toole has vowed to keep fighting. This at a time when his favourability has dropped to 24 per cent – from a peak of 38 per cent in September:
https://angusreid.org/otoole-favourability-federal-politics-december/
