Here's more details from the Angus Reid poll reflecting the differences in Charest and Poilievre support and the increasing dissatisfaction with the Trudeau Liberals.
https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/2022.07.24_CPC_Race.pdf
The distribution of potential votes is further illuminated when looking at vote retention. Broadly, Poilievre retains the core share of the Conservative vote, but pulls few past voters of other parties. Charest, on the other hand, retains fewer past Conservatives – with one-in-eight (12%) moving their vote to the PPC – but draws in nearly one-in-five (17%) past Liberal voters and one-in-ten of those who voted for the NDP in the fall.
Age and gender a factor
There is also a variation in the vote intention between the two candidates along age and gender lines. Both hold a significant potential advantage over the Liberals with men. But Charest closes the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives among women.
Poilievre draws in a larger share of younger potential voters than Charest. Charest on the other hand is more popular with those over the age of 54, an age group with a higher propensity to vote:
Both men competitive in Ontario, Charest holds advantage in Quebec
Poilievre receives a larger share of vote intent in the Prairies than Charest, but elections for the Conservatives have been won and lost outside of that stronghold. In Ontario, both earn the vote intent of around one-third of potential voters, putting them near the Liberals. However, Charest garners a larger share of vote intent in Quebec (26%) than does Poilievre (21%):
Poilievre’s policies resonate more with past CPC voters
Poilievre and Charest have charted distinct courses for the Conservative party. ARI surveyed Canadians on some of the key policy proposals both candidates have made throughout the campaign and on their campaign websites.
Overall, Canadians are more likely to opine that Poilievre’s proposals – cancelling the carbon tax, defunding the CBC, firing the governor of the Bank of Canada, supporting the trucker convoy protests, embracing Bitcoin – are bad ideas than good ones. Half are not in favour of cancelling the carbon tax and defunding the CBC. Double the number of Canadians call firing BoC governor Tiff Macklem a bad idea (46%) than a good one (23%). Support is much lower for supporting the Freedom Convoy and cryptocurrencies (Poilievre has been criticized for promoting Bitcoin as a way to “opt out of inflation” in May, weeks before the cryptocurrency market tanked.)
However, speaking to Poilievre’s appeal to past Conservative voters, his ideas are viewed much more favourably among those who voted for the CPC in the 2021 general election. Four-in-five in that group call stimulating oil and gas industry growth by cancelling the carbon tax and other anti-energy laws a good idea. Two-thirds (67%) of past CPC voters want to see CBC funding redirected elsewhere. Still, fewer than half of Conservative voters call firing Macklem or supporting the convoy protests a good idea. Few (13%) say so of embracing Bitcoin.
Among those who last voted Liberal, NDP or BQ, few call any of his policies good ideas:
Charest’s policies have more cross-partisan appeal
ARI also presented Canadians with five key Charest campaign promises. Fully two-thirds (66%) say making it illegal to blockade critical infrastructure is a good idea to pursue. Charest criticized Poilievre for his continued support of protesters in Ottawa in earlier this year, even suggesting Poilievre should be disqualified from the race for doing so.
Two other ideas generate much more support than opposition from Canadians. Increasing national defense spending to 2.0 per cent of GDP (57% good idea, 20% bad) and cancelling the federal carbon tax to replace it with an industry specific version (43% good idea, 27% bad) are both relatively popular.
The allowance of more private health care delivery is controversial. Charest has proposed allowing provinces to increase the capacity for private care, something that 40 per cent of Canadians view as good policy and 43 per cent view negatively.
One other campaign proposal that has turned heads is a new equalization formula specifically for Alberta. This addresses a long-held critique from Albertans that they give more than they get in federation. Details are sparse to date, but Charest claims he would make equalization “fair” for the oil producing province. One-in-three Canadians (35%) say this is a good idea, while one-quarter disagree (22%). Perhaps unsurprisingly, the policy receives great enthusiasm in Alberta (see detailed tables):
While Charest has not connected as closely as Poilievre has with the Conservative base, four of his publicly available proposals are receive majority support among this group. Comparatively, that is only the case for two of Poilievre’s.
Support for Charest’s five ideas is also significantly higher among all other partisan groups compared to Poilievre’s:
Part Three: The Trudeau Factor
Two-in-five approve of PM
As the Conservatives decide the direction of their party, the Liberals’ leader maintains a stable level of (dis)approval. Two-in-five (38%) say they approve of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, while approaching three-in-five (56%) do not. Trudeau’s approval has remained consistent in 2022, after a more dynamic 2021:
Trudeau and the Liberals are in a secure position of governance despite a minority in parliament because of a confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP. However, approval of Trudeau among those who voted for the NDP in the fall is split: similar numbers give the prime minister a thumbs-up (46%) as a thumbs-down (45%). Even among past Liberal voters, approval is not unanimous. One-in-six in that group disapprove of their leader.
Nearly all who voted CPC in the fall disapprove of Trudeau (96%). They are joined by two-thirds (66%) of past Bloc Québécois voters:
In Ontario, more than two-in-five (43%) approve of Trudeau, the highest measure in the country. That doubles the lowest mark, seen in Alberta (20%). However, at least half of respondents in all regions of the country disapprove of the prime minister:
Almost one-in-five 2021 Liberals say it’s time for a change in government
More than half (55%) of Canadians believe it’s time for a change in government, despite being less than a year removed from the 2021 election. One-third (33%) disagree.
Notably, past Bloc voters are more divided on this question than those who voted NDP. Despite sharing some of the power of the current government through the confidence-and-supply agreement, half (49%) of past NDP voters say it’s time for a change in government. They are joined by one-in-six (16%) of those who voted Liberal.
Still, seven-in-ten (69%) Liberal voters say it’s not the right time to change government. Nearly all (93%) past Conservative voters disagree:
