Pierre Poilievre Marches Further Rightward

Paladin1 wrote:

 The Liberals will win a few elections in a row, then the Conservatives will win a couple, then back to the liberals. 

We don't have a Conservative party. The sheep's clothing is falling off the wolf revealing the Reform/Ca party.

• ​Seventy-three per cent of Canadians, for instance, are satisfied with the way democracy works in Canada.
• Eighty-nine per cent strongly or somewhat agree that more should be done to promote the equality of women.
• Seventy-seven per cent strongly or somewhat disagree with the suggestion that discrimination against Indigenous people isn't a problem.
• And 68 per cent strongly or somewhat disagree with the claim that discrimination against Black Canadians isn't a problem.
• Eighty per cent of Canadians strongly or somewhat agree that immigration has a positive impact on the economy 
• 65 per cent disagree with claims that immigration rates are too high.
• Seventy-three per cent say governments should act to reduce the gap between the rich and poor 
• 74 per cent strongly or somewhat support the federal equalization program (including 57 per cent in Alberta).
• 69 per cent of Canadians believe there is "solid" or "conclusive" evidence of global warming
• 75 per cent believe the primary cause of climate change is human and industrial activity that consumes fossil fuels.

Conservative policy and campaigning is on the wrong side of these issues. 

Academic research suggests that the major federal parties have become more ideologically distinct and that Canadian partisans are more consistent and have self-sorted along left-right lines. Partisans on the left and right also seem to view each other more negatively than they used to — what's known as "affective polarization."

It's an interesting way of framing it when it applies only to the Conservative Party. The Liberals and NDP have not become more ideologically distinct from one another. It is the Conservative Party that become more ideologically distinct from the Liberals and NDP.

Stewart Prest, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University, pointed to such splits in November when he argued that the dividing lines in last fall's federal election didn't run down the middle of the political spectrum — they ran right through the Conservative Party.

In other words, if Conservative politicians seem particularly concerned about divisions in the country, it might be because they're the ones experiencing them most directly.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-the-liberals-are-winni...

So, this raises the question: Why are older Canadians suddenly keener to support Trudeau’s Liberals than in recent months? As Occam’s razor rule of parsimony wisely states, sometimes the simplest and most obvious explanation is the correct one. From the graph above, it appears that the Liberal Party started distancing itself from the Conservatives in February, which coincided with many senior voters in Canada getting their first jab.

As of this writing, over 79 per cent of Canadians aged 70 to 79 years old and 87 per cent Canadians over 80 years old have received at least a first dose of the vaccine, according to the Public Health agency of Canada. After a slow start to its vaccine rollout in February and March, Canada now has one the fastest vaccination rates in the world, and trails only the United Kingdom and the United States among G7 countries (see graph below).

The problem is not just FPTP. Westminster parliamentary democracies were designed to keep the status quo in power. We need a completely rewritten constitution if we want to have democratic decisions made by our political class. Currently close to two thirds of the people get a government they didn't vote for and every single party will sell its soul for a majority government, i.e. a dictatorship for four years.

In times of real war Canadians have formed Unity governments to focus solely on fighting the enemy. I wish we could all insist that the parties do the same today to fight the climate chaos enemy.

Don Martin: The personal antipathy between Charest and Poilievre is damaging the Conservatives beyond repair

April 12, 2022

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-the-personal-antipathy-between-charest-and-poilievre-is-damaging-the-conservatives-beyond-repair-1.5858955

Paladin1 Also true. It does seem like Liberals aren't all happy with Trudeau. The threat of the conservative boogyman is enough to keep them voting red. [/quote]</p> <p>I’m 90% sure that this deal with the NDP is intended to keep Trudeau in power until 2025 at which point he will retire just in time for Freeland to run a leadership campaign followed by the federal general election.</p> <p>If as seems likely Poilieve wins the Conservative leadership he will spend the next 3 years very successfully making Trudeau look like the ass that he is. It also makes Poilievre look like a bully. The optics of attacking Freeland as viciously would not go over well. That will handicap Poilievre.</p> <p>[quote=Paladin1 wrote:

Maybe we should get rid of voting for local MPs and just vote on the prime minister. 

I would prefer for MPs to drop party affiliation and to vote for a team of PM + top cabinet ministers none of whom would be MPs. The PM could not fire cabinet ministers. Junior cabinet posts would be chosen from independently elected MPs. Totally pie in the sky but I think it would produce a much better outcome.

Paladin1 wrote:

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest some people don't trust the police and would be more comfortable with an anonymous hotline. Perhaps especially people new to Canada from countries where the police are corrupt. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/8373704/barbaric-cultural-practices-conservatives-2021/

The Conservative MP leading outreach efforts for leader Erin O’Toole says a six-year-old promise to create a ‘barbaric cultural practices’ hotline still hangs over the party’s attempts to rebuild relationships with racialized communities today….

Before the election, Harper spent his final months in office pushing culturally divisive policies. Those included a bill banning face coverings from being worn during citizenship ceremonies, a measure Uppal promoted….

The emphasis on outreach follows the disappointment and frustration many Conservatives felt after failing to make inroads in the Greater Toronto Area — home to many immigrants and racialized Canadians — as during the Sept. 20 election. Party brass were also shocked when long-serving Conservative incumbents were defeated in ridings like Richmond, B.C., and Ontario’s Markham-Unionville, home to many voters of Chinese descent.

Balpreet Singh, a lawyer and spokesman for the World Sikh Organization in Canada, says…

Singh believes there’s room for the Conservatives to grow their support in Sikh-populated areas like Brampton, Ont., given how many community members like the party’s fiscal policies. But he says the promises from the 2015 campaign create unease.

“It was felt even though those were targeted at the Muslim community that the Conservatives were not hesitant to play the race card, the xenophobic card when it was felt to be to their advantage, and that’s unacceptable,” he said….

“It’s shocking that the words ‘Islamophobia’ and ‘racism’ didn’t appear in the Conservative platform given the conversations we’re having now in Canada.”…

Konanur says many have the impression the Liberals and NDP are more friendly than the Conservatives on immigration matters, but added that many clients see their social values better reflected by Conservatives.

Uppal says over the years he’s heard feedback from those in different racialized communities that they like the Tories position on taxation and supporting entrepreneurs, “and yet they say, ‘But we just don’t feel like we can connect with you.”’

“Maybe it’s a matter of tone,” he says. “I think it’s a matter of rebuilding some of those relationships.”

Harper and Ford used social values as a means of appealing to immigrants but those same social values are the ones that repel swing voters. Entrepreneurs may want lower taxes and more support but immigrants in general want social supports and well-funded health and education systems and family reunification and support for refugees.

The Liberals know there is a streak of anti-immigration within the Conservative demographic.  The Liberals exploit it. 

The same game goes on Canada just as it does in the USA. Canadian power brokers will privately decide who will best ensure there is no actual redistribution of wealth, basically no taxes for the rich, and who will give them the most government contracts, and the die will be cast. 

If the Conservatives, having done as well as they did, and Paladin1 is corrrect in that more Canadians supported Conservatives than the Liberals, in both previous elections, with what were supposedly totally unelectable leaders like Scheer and O'Toole, my strong hunch is that come next election, the savant Liberals will be doing a lot of shredding before next election day. 

NorthReport wrote:

<p>The same game goes on Canada just as it does in the USA. Canadian power brokers will privately decide who will best ensure there is no actual redistribution of wealth, basically no taxes for the rich, and who will give them the most government contracts, and the die will be cast.&nbsp;</p>

<p><span style="font-size:1em">If the Conservatives,&nbsp;</span>having&nbsp;done as well as they&nbsp;did, and Paladin1 is corrrect in that more Canadians supported Conservatives&nbsp;than the Liberals, in both previous elections,<span style="font-size:1em">&nbsp;with what were supposedly&nbsp;totally unelectable leaders like Scheer and O'Toole, my strong hunch is that come next election, the savant Liberals will be doing a lot of shredding before next election day.&nbsp;</span></p>

The Conservatives lost all three elections even with a rising popular vote. Scheer was chosen to be electable, Harper 2.0. O'Toole moved to the centre to become electable and still lost. Moving farther right will lead to greater losses even as it cements support in the prairies.

Canadians may well cheer Poilievre's devastating attacks on Trudeau. He's a clever and effective attack dog. It won't translate into winning the PM position. 

Conservatives changed the voting system to reduce the weight of smaller ridings but the reason for giving equal weight to all the ridings was to make sure western Conservatives, (Reform and CA) didn't dominate the party to the exclusion of the PC Conservatives. 

Maybe Peter MacKay could have convinced swing voters the party was moderate enough to goivern but Poilievre will send them running to the Liberals and the NDP. 

Interesting.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/04/12/patrick-brown-vows-i...

It seems like many, many politicians want to campaign on the left, and government on the right. Who knew!

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/04/12/jean-charest-raises-...

My hunch, which is getting stronger by the minute, is that Trudeau is done like dinner and will be replaced by the Liberals before the next election.

Screw global warming Poilievre tells 5,000 supporters in Calgary last nite.

Pierre Poilievre tells Calgary supporters he'll build pipelines in all directions

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/poilievre-calgary-rally-1.6418474

Useless poll as Poilievre has to ensure he secures the Conservative leadership first, and hasn't even begun to address Canadian voters yet. He's only warming up in batter's practice. Let's talk polls in six months, or even a year from now.

NorthReport wrote:

 

My hunch, which is getting stronger by the minute, is that Trudeau is done like dinner and will be replaced by the Liberals before the next election.

I wish I could agree with you but I see Trudeau lasting another 10 years if he wants.

People comment that the Conservatives are just picking bad candidates. It doesn't matter who the Conservatives put in the seat, the only thing that will dethrone Trudeau is if Liberal voters want him dethroned. He's untouchable.

JKR wrote:

Sounds like Charest might be to the left of Mulcair!

Debater wrote:

Don Martin: The personal antipathy between Charest and Poilievre is damaging the Conservatives beyond repair

April 12, 2022

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-the-personal-antipathy-between-charest-and-poilievre-is-damaging-the-conservatives-beyond-repair-1.5858955

But Charest lowered the bar to limbo backbreaker levels when he told CTV on Sunday that Poilievre’s support for the Freedom Convoy ‘disqualifies” him from leadership contention.

Charest is correct. And the so-called freedom convoy should be in quotes, not disqualifies.

It's so obvious that the Conservative contest is turning out to be a coronation for Poilievre, and all indications are that he will win on the first ballot

Conservative Leadership race
Poilievre 43%
Charest 18%
Brown 5%

Leger poll

Elections aren't decided by crowd size, despite what people like Donald Trump think.

Paladin1 wrote:

I tend not to believe people when they say debates are their deciding factor for who they vote for but if that's truely the case Poilievre will destroy Trudeau in debates. Poilievre is smart, thinks fast on his feet, and is skilled at debating. Trudeau on the other hand doesn't even answer questions, he responds to them with typical poli-speak.

I think first consideration is that people are mainly considering 2 parties. Liberal/Conservative or Liberal/NDP although out West I imagine it’s either Conservative only or Conservative/NDP

I watched Trudeau’s first debate in 2015 and he did not do well. He still came off as good enough to be a plausible leader. Once you pass the hurdle of plausibility the top 1-3 talking points of the leaders matter as well as how much support they are perceived to have as election day nears. It seems many swing voters only tune in the last week and voters are motivated to vote to keep a party out. That is what is happening to the Conservatives. People are voting literally against the Conservatives. We saw that in 2015 when the NDP almost won. The Conservatives have the strongest base but the smallest potential voter pool.

Paladin1 wrote:

"No one believes you Mr Trudeau" really hit home with a lot of Canadians

I am sure that will resonate but that doesn’t mean it will earn more support for the Conservatives. The benefit is more likely to go to the NDP in most provinces.

Poilievre is an excellent attack dog and even manages to inject some humor into them. On the other hand attack dogs don’t make good Prime Ministers and his policies will rule him out. People do not remember the Freedom Convoy with affection. We were embarrassed on the world stage, made to look like our national security is the equivalent of keystone cops. Borders were blocked causing job losses. It will be remembered in 2025. Clips will be shown of Conservatives supporting it.

Paladin1 wrote:

Take a look at the crowds he's already pulling. The Liberals are going to have a hard time with their typical "just white men" tactic.

They don’t need it. If people were going to vote based on their race the blackface would have ended Trudeau.

Liberals hold all the cards. They control the majority of Canada's media, they have Pierre Trudeau's son Justin as their leader, they always campaign on the left to get the people's votes, and govern on the right to benefit their corporate masters. And yet Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre is off to a lightning start, has pulled away from the rest of the pack, with more that double the of support of his nearest leadership rival, and is now amassing crowds, the likes of which were familiar to Jack Layton. There is no question Liberals are seriously worried, and Liberal talking points about crowd size doesn't mean that much, are just that, Liberal talking points. Now that New Democrats have secured universal dental and pharma care for Canadians, perhaps a lot more Canadians in the next election will want to thank and/or reward the NDP with their vote.   

Tied already, and although it is a foregone conlusion that Poilievre will be the next Conservative leader. First things first, as he hasn't even begun to present himself to all Canadians yet.  Truly amazin'! 

 https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-april-2022-polling-update/

Margin of error, Liberal connected pollster, and Conservatives are leaderless at the moment, but fill your boots.

The Conservatives are down 3 points from the election they lost. The Liberals are up two points from the election they won. The Conservatives have a very solid base. That isn't their problem. They already have all the supporters that Poilievre would be popular with. I don't know about Charest but to win the party needed a more centrist leader. Conservative numbes may grow between now and the election but when election day comes around they will drop back to their base. I don't believe they can even win a minority but if they did the Liberals and NDP could block them. Last time around that track Dion was kneecapped by his own party when he tried to make a deal with the NDP. Deals with the NDP are no longer off the table. If the Conservatives won a small minority I think the NDP would make another deal to keep the Liberals in power. Something on basic income or housing would do the trick. The BC example changed things. 

NorthReport wrote:

Can't they pay with bitcoins?

LOL

Accessible voter pools are key. The following chart compares 2019 to July 2021. 

These numbers are very soft and rounded but they give enough an indication to read the writing on the wall.

Liberals won the election with 31%, Conservatives lost with 34/35%.

The Liberal voter pool was 56%, The Conservative at 41% which was a 7 point drop from 2019. Bad because it trended down but it still indicates potential that they were at 48% in 2019.

So Liberals, pool 56%, won election with 31% for a difference of 25%. It is unlikely for a party to win the entire pool of people who would even consider voting them but the Liberals don't need to gain to win. 31% was sufficient. If they earn a larger percentage it gets them closer to a majority.

The Conservatives lost the election with 34% with a potential voter pool of 41% for a difference of 7%. Even taking the 2019 numbers would result in a spread of only 15%.

That would give the Conservatives more legroom (15%) but then you hit the split. Satisfy one group lose the other. Conservatives have support across the country but the centre/east is dominated by PC types that are actually conservative in the meaning of the word. The prairies have more radical views. 

https://i0.wp.com/abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Slide8.jpg?w=...

JKR wrote:

Like it or not, the electoral history of Canada, at the federal level, is that the Conservatives obtain power when the voters get very fed up with the Liberal government of the day. Once that anger at the Liberals fades away the Liberals resume power and the cycle repeats itself. This is why the Liberals have been in power 2/3rds of the time. This will probably change one day but currently I don't see much sign of a change.