Thanks, I was not aware of the rule change.
it does seem relatively minor, though. The big membership ridings in the west (heavily SoCon) will be under-represented. Quebec and central city Ontario(arguably more moderate) will still punch above their weight.
Notwithstanding that, I do agree with what most of you have said - the crazies are in control.
Not anymore. They changed it.
What system have they moved to?
The new rules will still cap each riding's value at 100 points — but those ridings with fewer than 100 members will be worth only as many points as the number of ballots cast. That means a riding with 500 members will still be worth 100 points, but a riding with 50 members will be worth 50 points.
If Erin O'Toole was deemed too far left, there is no hope in hell for Charest.
When was the last time that someone became Prime Minister of Canada for the first time in his mid-60's?
Paul Martin in 2003.
You're right -- I had forgotten about Paul Martin. But he's been the exception to the rule in modern history, and he didn't last long, did he?
Chrétien was 59 when he became Prime Minister in 1993, and he won his last majority in 2000 at age 66. So Martin wasn't as much of an outlier at the time as we might think.
It would be hysterical if Poilevre ended up losing on the votes of rural Western ridings, because they got mixed up and decided "we can't let another goldurned francophone be leader", wouldn't it?
It would be hysterical if Poilevre ended up losing on the votes of rural Western ridings, because they got mixed up and decided "we can't let another goldurned francophone be leader", wouldn't it?
Enter Tamara's Maverick Party. In the last federal election we had a candidate from this party running. They came in just ahead of the Marxist Leninist but way behind the PPC. The CPC came in a respectable second to the NDP while the Liberal's came in third. At this point around here both the centrist CPC and the Bernier led PPC seems to have way more traction than the honkies.
"Maverick strives to achieve greater fairness and self-determination for western Canadians through fundamental change, or the creation of an independent nation.
Through advocacy and education, we are here for you, and every other western Canadian, inside Ottawa and out.
We are the West's Federal Party"
It would be hysterical if Poilevre ended up losing on the votes of rural Western ridings, because they got mixed up and decided "we can't let another goldurned francophone be leader", wouldn't it?
The Conservative leadership timeline strikes me as a compromise between a long and a short race. Vote is on Sept. 10 but membership deadline is June 3, 99 days earlier. In 2020, the (original) gap between cutoff and voting day was 51 days, in 2017 it was 60 days.
https://twitter.com/EricGrenierTW/status/1499370076088246276?s=20&t=7AJX...
According to the CBC Jean Charest, Patrick Brown and Leslyn Lewis will all be announcing their candidacies this week. I think Lewis and Brown both have a better chance of winning than Charest, who must be living in an alternate reality. If I had to bet today, I'd put my money on Lewis or Poilievre.
Mine's on Poilievre. Party executive is still desperately trying to turn the party into the PCs but they lost that option when they joined with C.A. under Harper.
Leger Poll of Conservative voters
March 10, 2022
Mine's on Poilievre. Party executive is still desperately trying to turn the party into the PCs but they lost that option when they joined with C.A. under Harper.
Thanks to MacKay.
Lewis the only one who's been mentioned who could beat PP.
Not sure if Lewis can win but she will make a dent on Poilievre's social conservative support. The best thing about that would be for both of them to try to outdo each other in gaining those votes and alienating most Canadians in the process.
Not sure if Lewis can win but she will make a dent on Poilievre's social conservative support. The best thing about that would be for both of them to try to outdo each other in gaining those votes and alienating most Canadians in the process.
They will both still alienate swing voters. It's delicious. We should be enjoying the show. This is a win for progressives.
Not sure if Lewis can win but she will make a dent on Poilievre's social conservative support. The best thing about that would be for both of them to try to outdo each other in gaining those votes and alienating most Canadians in the process.
The problem with that scenario is when one of them gets dropped, the other grabs the vast majority of their votes. And if both of them make it to the final ballot (which I don't think is likely), well ------
My prediction - Pierre Le Pew will win.
Tags: All Images
I predict Pierre Pilote.
Praise the lord!
Someone seems to have a messiah complex!
Peter MacKay will not run for Conservative leadership:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/peter-mackay-conservative-leadership-1.6383246
Jean Charest came to Calgary and immediately got COVID seems about right
https://twitter.com/rtaylor_work/status/1503572267740979202?s=20&t=NLW64...
2 more Con MPs join the ranks of no-hopers in the leadership race.
They ar running for cabinet spots. Marc Dalton is clearly going for the BC honkie vote, we will see how many new members that stance gets him.
In an announcement video posted to Twitter, Dalton said one of his first steps as leader would be to call for a national inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic, including into what he described as the degree of political motivation in government health measures and coercive government actions.
Former Ontario Premier Mike Harris endorses Jean Charest:
Hopefully that opens some eyes among those thinking of Charest as the "moderate" in this race.
Polieivre is so far right he's even too much for Harris.
The answer to the thread title's question is "probably on the first ballot".
Although no fan of the author, after reading the following, Charest shouldn't even last as a participant to the end of the leadership campaign. Not because of the company he lobbied for, but because of his BS. On the other hand, it is a Conservative leadership race, so maybe Charest will fit right in with them.
The Comprador in the Conservative leadership race keeps digging. Here's the bedrock Jean Charest is about to hit.
I've done some digging of my own. It turns out the whole thing is greasier than I thought, and I thought it was pretty greasy to begin with. . .
https://therealstory.substack.com/p/weekend-newsletter-special-the-compr...
Posted without comment.
https://therealstory.substack.com/p/welcome-to-jean-charests-world-the?s=r
Posted without comment.
https://therealstory.substack.com/p/welcome-to-jean-charests-world-the?s=r
I have trouble reading that style of pearl clutching newletter. Does he ever get to the point?
Yea, technology without severe controls over it, is such a marvelous thing, isn't it?
How absurd!
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/03/31/who-made-the-fake-do...
Charest blasts Poilievre for supporting Freedom Convoy: 'Laws are not a buffet'
Conservative leadership hopeful Jean Charest is turning up the heat against perceived frontrunner Pierre Poilievre, taking him to task for his support of the trucker protests that took over downtown Ottawa and led to blockades at border crossings.
“I have a competitor by the name of Mr. Poilievre who supported, as you know, the blockade,” Charest told CTV Morning Live on Friday. “And if you want to be a leader in this country and a legislator, you can’t make laws and break laws.
“Laws are not a buffet table, if you’re a legislator, from which you choose what you want. Because what you’re really saying to people is I’m above the law,” Charest added in a separate interview with CTV News.
“You can’t be a leader of a party and the chief legislator of the country, as prime minister, and support people breaking the laws. That disqualifies you.”
(Video at link):
Is he helping Poilievre on purpose?
Liberals are just panicking because Poilievre has a lock on it, and stands a very good chance of winning on the first ballot.
Poilievre-mania!!! However, this doesn't seem to extend beyound the Con core as a Leger poll found in a contest against Trudeau the election result would be very similar to O'Toole's.
Around 1,000 people turned out to see Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre at a rally in Lindsay, Ont. At an event last week in Oldcastle, he turned out 1,200. These are not major urban centres and Poilievre is attracting the kinds of crowds that usually only turn up in Metro Vancouver or the GTA.
“The crowds Pierre Poilievre is attracting to his rallies — they’re off the charts, folks,” read a Sunday tweet by David Akin, a 20-year veteran of political reporting.
Going into this race, Poilievre was far from a household name. He was briefly shadow finance minister under Erin O’Toole and spent two years working some leftover cabinet posts in the final days of Stephen Harper (think Minister of Democratic Institutions). Before then, Poilievre was just a nine-year Tory backbencher with a ludicrously short commute to the House of Commons; his Carleton riding is roughly a 38-minute drive to Parliament Hill.
Within Poilievre’s rallies, things are happening that are very out-of-character for a Conservative leadership race that is still four months away from its Sept. 10 finale. On Monday, Poilievre’s campaign posted a video of their candidate meeting a woman crying as she said “our faith is in you.” A Toronto Star reporter following the Poilievre campaign found that his rallies were disproportionately attracting supporters who had never before attended a political event.
This kind of public engagement basically never happens to Conservative leaders, much less mere leadership candidates. One of Justin Trudeau’s chief assets to the Liberal Party was his ease at marshalling adoring crowds. Jack Layton’s personal popularity was deemed critical to the NDP’s Orange Wave in Quebec in 2011.
Stephen Harper, Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole didn’t really do mass-rallies. And in fact, there’s an argument to be made that the Conservative Party under their tenure actively cultivated the opposite. “Harper has worked very diligently to be as bland and boring as an Alberta prairie,” declared VICE Media in a 2015 article bemoaning the fact that Harper was strangely immune to mockery. In the 2017 race to pick Harper’s successor, candidate Andrew Saxton even touted his “boring” nature as a counterweight to the slick celebrity of Justin Trudeau. “Boring gets the job done,” he said.
As to why this is all happening, the conventional wisdom is that Poilievre is bringing populism to a demographic that’s hungry for it. This was particularly on display during the events of Freedom Convoy. While then Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole was strenuously distancing himself from the protest and criticizing the Confederate battle flags in their midst, Poilievre was actively defending the protests’ aims in the House of Commons. Sean Speer, a former advisor to Stephen Harper, wrote in a piece for the National Post that Poilievre was giving voice to a disaffected generation of Millennials priced out of the housing market and denied the easy accreditation and lower cost-of-living given to their parents.
Poilievre’s magic touch does not seem to be extending to the Canadian public at large. A March Leger poll found that if a Poilievre-led Conservative Party fought a federal election, the Liberals would win at roughly the same proportions at which they beat Erin O’Toole. That same poll also found that Canadians would be slightly more likely to vote for a Conservative Party with Peter MacKay at the helm.
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-poilievre-mania-the-s...
Liberals are just panicking because Poilievre has a lock on it, and stands a very good chance of winning on the first ballot.
Charest immediately shot himself in the foot and lost the support of gun owners.
Poilievre will win the party vote and continue calling out Trudeau for his lack of ethics, hypocrisy, and bullshit.
And Canadians will continue to make excuses for Trudeau and ignore his behavior. Trudeau would win into the 2040s if he wanted.
Well Poilievre will get the convoy vote!
He sure will, Singh's brother included.
Don't this this has anything to do with Jagmeet Singh, nor his brother, as per this article, just more CBC innuendo, however, fill your boots.
Singh’s brother-in-law has asked for his $13K trucker convoy donation back, source says
As first reported by CBC News, the source said there was a “misunderstanding” in what the donation would be for, and once Singh’s brother-in-law, Jodhveer Singh Dhaliwal, understood the “true nature of this organization,” he requested his funds to be returned.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8542184/singh-covid-trucker-convoy-vaccine-ma...
Charest immediately shot himself in the foot and lost the support of gun owners.
Poilievre will win the party vote and continue calling out Trudeau for his lack of ethics, hypocrisy, and bullshit.
And Canadians will continue to make excuses for Trudeau and ignore his behavior. Trudeau would win into the 2040s if he wanted.
The only thing worse than Biden is Trump. The only thing worse than Trudeau is the new Conservative party. People aren't voting for Trudeau they are voting against Conservatives.
The NDP could benefit greatly as long as the Conservatives stay below the number they need to win. I predict they will. Attacking Trudeau will only send votes to the NDP.
Singh’s brother-in-law has asked for his $13K trucker convoy donation back, source says
The only thing worse than Biden is Trump. The only thing worse than Trudeau is the new Conservative party. People aren't voting for Trudeau they are voting against Conservatives.
The NDP could benefit greatly as long as the Conservatives stay below the number they need to win. I predict they will. Attacking Trudeau will only send votes to the NDP.
Conservatives en masse aren't going to start voting NDP because someone attacked the Liberals.
Conservative swing voters move to the Liberals if they think the Conservatives won't win. NDP voters move to the Liberals if they think the Conservatives might win. As we saw in 2015, when Liberals loose hope they take a serious look at the NDP. Muclair was in first place for the blink of an eye but it showed willingness to go NDP. The NDP/Liberal deal is popular and through it they are gaining more credibility.
The NDP and the Greens overthrew the elected conservative Liberals in BC because between them they had a majority even if it was just one seat.
If by any fluke the Conservatives win a minority the Liberals and NDP already have a working relationship that can overthrow them as happened in BC.
We don't elect political parties or PMs. Theoretically every single MP could be independent. It is the MPs who choose who the PM will be. That has always been the leader of the party with the most seats but it isn't the law. The person who appears to command the most support in the HoC makes a throne speech (through the GG) which can then be rejected by the MPs. If Liberals and NDP MPs decide to throw their support to one of their two leaders it is perfectly legal and more democratic than minority governments governing as though they are majorities.
An interesting factor is that Trudeau called Singh to congratulate him on the birth of his child so they started talking directly and this plan was born. The precedent of cooperation to maintain power has now been set.
Meanwhile the Conservative party is imploding. Freemarket libertarians convinced traditional conservatives that they were on the same side by championing religious freedoms, parent's rights and the freedom to present legislation on abortion and LBGTQ rights.
The business conservatives now want the social conservatives and freedom convoy types to accept that they have to let the party be more moderate and centrist.
That isn't going to happen because their priority is not the party winning power. Their priority is to promote what they believe in. There is no point in winning just for the sake of winning.
Pierre Poilievre, unless something very dramatic happens, is the next leader of the Conservative Party. He will spend the next 3 years attacking Trudeau. In 2025 the Liberals will likely have a new leader but if not Poilievre will send Liberal voters fleeing to the NDP if they fear they can't win, as they did in 2015 for a short time.
I feel many are so hyper-focused on keeping the liberals in power at all costs they don't seem to register the rot inside the party, or hold them accountable for their behavior and actions.
My hunch is that it is just that most people here had enough with Harper and want to keep the Conservatives out. Period.
Harper was a moderate compared to Poilievre
I feel many are so hyper-focused on keeping the liberals in power at all costs they don't seem to register the rot inside the party, or hold them accountable for their behavior and actions.
Everyone wants to pretend this isn't a new party formed in 2003 but that is what it is. Slapping the Conservative name on it does not make it a revival of the Progressive Conservative party. The masquerade is over. The new not-Conservative party will never win another election. Like in BC and Quebec, the Liberal party will become the home of the former PCs. The current Conservative party will be the home of free marketers and social conservatives. The NDP is becoming the new Liberal party or rather the old Liberal party.
You aren't getting it. Very few people support the Liberals.
You know what's worse than blackface? A barbaric practices hotline.
There are also honour killings that happen in our larger cities as well as family abuse against women because of "honour".
Everyone wants to pretend this isn't a new party formed in 2003 but that is what it is. Slapping the Conservative name on it does not make it a revival of the Progressive Conservative party. The masquerade is over. The new not-Conservative party will never win another election.
The NDP is becoming the new Liberal party or rather the old Liberal party.
This is a good article about Poilievre.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-conservative-leadership-1.641...
Very soon expect the Liberal party to start screaming about Trump and trying to push a narrative that Poilievre will be the next Trump and turn Canada into the US. Typical tactics. I think he's going to go far drawing on anti-Trudeau sentiment.
The federal political history of Canada seems to roughly be 20 years of Liberal governments followed by 10 years of Conservative governments. Rinse. Repeat. I think we seem to currently be following that pattern.
