Pierre Poilievre Marches Further Rightward

The battle in the Conservative party is whether or not to adjust policy to gain seats in the east in order to gain power.

One faction considers winning power federally to be the primary goal of the party.  It's obvious the party can't win without moving towards the centre, in essence becoming the PC again. The more extreme elements have sunk the parties fortunes in the last three elections. They want a Harper that can control the social conservatives. 

Social conservatives felt betrayed by Harper. Then they were betrayed by Scheer and O'Toole. Supporters against the carbon tax and equalization were also betrayed by O'Toole. Their primary goal is to have representation for their views regardless of whether or not they win federally. They are prepared to be the Bloc of Alberta. 

The Conservative party isn't just split on policy. They have different goals. The PC side considers winning federally to be the primary goal. The rest consider conservative principles and representing Alberta/Sask concerns to be the primary goal. (wexiters, libertarians, social and fiscal conservatives). There is no point in winning as liberal lite. 

Pierre Poilievre seems to be the front runner by a mile and he has declared. Leslyn Lewis is also expected to run again to represent pro-life but not expected to win.

If Pierre Poilievre wins the party will not win the next election. 

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/02/04/Pierre-Poilievre-Drive-To-Power/

Poilievre’s Ayn Rand principles and defiantly right-wing politics may seem too extreme for general election success. But few of his political opponents are likely to sell him short. He is smart, well-spoken and fearless. He can also count on public fatigue with Liberal rule which, even if it doesn’t swing voters to the Conservatives, might at least depress Liberal turnout.

Which could easily lead to an NDP win. They could let the Conservatives do all the nasty attacks against Trudeau and the Liberals. It shouldn't be too hard to demonize Trudeau. Freeland would be tougher to attack but would still wear negativity to the Liberals as a whole. The next election is far enough away to be a change election. 

Liberal/NDP voters are willing to vote for each other's parties to block the Conservatives. Polls leading up to the election tell them which way to go. Under Poilievre the might do so poorly they are guaranteed to lose putting the NDP and Liberals neck in neck.

Why the left shouldn’t underestimate Pierre Poilievre

quote:

And the leading Blue Tory? That would be Pierre Poilievre, an MP who represents the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton. Poilievre is a compelling, sharp speaker who has a considerable social media presence and is idolized by Conservatives across the country, particularly among the younger set. He is a relentless questioner in Parliament who sometimes gets the better of Justin Trudeau. Perhaps most importantly, Poilievre gets a lot of play in the media, and has been floated as the leadership favourite in multiple publications. Assuming Poilievre is not derailed by personal concerns, he could very well be the Conservative leader by this summer or fall.

Frankly, this should be terrifying to the Canadian left.

Poilievre is a truecblue conservative hardliner who is constantly pushing right wing talking points. Other Conservative MPs typically maintain an arm’s length relationship with reactionary think tanks and advocacy organizations—not so with Poilievre. He frequently tweets stories from the Fraser Institute, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, and other right wing groups. He also peddles right wing talking points in Parliament; his latest push is to characterize recent stimulus spending as “printed money,” demanding spending cuts as a solution to inflation concerns.

Fitting with his youthful appearance, Poilievre is essentially an unreconstructed Conservative activist, someone who idolizes Margaret Thatcher and Jordan Peterson. He’s not a “compassionate Conservative” like O’Toole, or a sort of tepid populist like Doug Ford. Poilievre is a reactionary austerity monger in the mold of a Jason Kenney, someone who will fight unions, suffocate the public sector, and cut welfare, even if those policies prove highly unpopular.

Pondering wrote:

Liberal/NDP voters are willing to vote for each other's parties to block the Conservatives. Polls leading up to the election tell them which way to go. Under Poilievre the might do so poorly they are guaranteed to lose putting the NDP and Liberals neck in neck.

I think you’re right about Liberal/NDP voters being willing to vote for each other's parties to block the Conservatives. That’s why I think that the Liberals would likely have to fall into 3rd place in order for the NDP to win the next election.

JKR wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Social conservatives felt betrayed by Harper. 

Where’s evidence for that? I haven’t seen any.

2012 when they realized that Harper still wasn't going to allow debating when life starts nor sex selective abortion. He had placated them with cutting off international funding for abortions. While Harper had minorities the grumbling was kept to a minimum because they knew they didn't have the votes to pass legislation. Once he had a majority they fully expected change. The whole point of being quiet was to get the majority which would allow the Conservative party to act alone.

They have lost the battle on sex education and LBGTQ rights. Abortion is their last stand and the most important. No other developed country has no laws on abortion. When Campaign for Life has polls done a clear majority of Canadians are against sex-selective abortion and abortion beyond the first trimester therefore their position isn't radical. They want at least the opportunity for debates in the House. During Harper's majority the discontent was increasing. That was when they did polling. Harper still resisted all efforts..

Just before Trudeau won Harper turned hard right dog-whistling to the base. He tryed to appeal to anti-immigrant conservatives but it was too late.

Scheer won the party leadership based on his appeal to social conservatives. After he lost their theory was that he didn't stand up for his (their) beliefs. He should have defended them. He had to go.

O'Toole promised not to muzzle socially conservative MPs. He also promised to scrape the Carbon Tax which is seen as an attack on the west. Then he kicked Derek Sloane out.

So now the head honchos are trying find another Harper that can convince the social conservatives to be quiet so they can win elections. The reason they won't do that since Harper is because he continued to silence them once he got his majority. Now they want a leader who will at minimum allow the debates to happen in the House.

I remember what was going on within the Conservative party regarding abortion rights because it is a top issue for me. I actively research what is happening within the party concerning it.

Pierre Poilievre is not their first choice but..
https://www.voteprolife.ca/find/view/mp/province//id/234/name/pierre-poi...

In a subsequent interview with the Toronto Star, a Poilievre spokesperson clarified that Pierre would allow MPs to vote their conscience on abortion-related private members bills, but that they would not be "adopted" by his government, and that he would personally vote against any such bills.

He won't be their first choice. That will be Leslyn Lewis. They will flip to a candidate that will promise free speech.

Trudeau is not going to lead the Liberals into the next election. He barely came out of this one with his government intact and his bosses do not take failure lightly.

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Trudeau is not going to lead the Liberals into the next election. He barely came out of this one with his government intact and his bosses do not take failure lightly.

I agree. I think they might push for Freeland but you never know. Trudeau doesn't have to resign even if the party wants him to.

On another note, Poilievre announced that he was running for Prime Minister rather than the leadership of the Conservative party.

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Trudeau is not going to lead the Liberals into the next election. He barely came out of this one with his government intact and his bosses do not take failure lightly.

You're smarter when it comes to politics by a long shot but I still find it hard to agree with your prediction.

He's built up a cult following and injected himself into the soul of the Liberal party. He IS the party. Who would dare go up against the Trudeau dynasty? He's got many loyal Samurai ready to fall on their swords for him.

JKR wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Just before Trudeau won Harper turned hard right dog-whistling to the base. He tryed to appeal to anti-immigrant conservatives but it was too late.

Do you think their base and the anti-immigrant conservatives didn’t continue voting for the Conservatives? I think they stuck with the Conservatives. The PPC Party is vying for those right of centre votes which increases the chances of the Conservatives choosing a person on the right flank of their party to fend off Bernier. If parties like the PPC, Greens, and NDP do well in the next election we could end up with a party winning the election with less than 30% of the vote. A phoney FPTP “majority” government could even be established with under 1/3rd of the vote.

Turning right to save his base cost Harper the election but not doing so would also have cost him the election. He wouldn't have done it unless he was losing support to the PPC. I agree that the next leader will have to be firmly on the right. Commentators seem to think there is no one who could beat Poilievere.

Liberal and NDP voters will swing to whichever party looks most able to beat the Conservatives. Poilievere will unite them against him.

Trudeau's popularity is at best tepid as shown consistently in polls and the thumping he took in the popular votes in the last two elections.

There is both a real visceral dislike of him as well as a large body of voters who are uneasy at his ethical lapses and entitlement. The latter may reluctantly vote for him but may really cheer someone like PIerre P who goes for Trudeau's throat.

Hopefully when they focus on how truly vile PP is they will then look seriously towards the NDP.

Within hours of his video going online, over a dozen MPs announced they were endorsing the Ontario MP, a strong showing of force that is undoubtedly aimed at intimidating any would-be contestants and getting a first-mover advantage.

And Poilievre has plenty of advantages in this race. So, what’s his path to victory?

https://www.thewrit.ca/p/pierre-poilievres-path-to-win-the

nicky wrote:

Trudeau's popularity is at best tepid as shown consistently in polls and the thumping he took in the popular votes in the last two elections.

There is both a real visceral dislike of him as well as a large body of voters who are uneasy at his ethical lapses and entitlement. The latter may reluctantly vote for him but may really cheer someone like PIerre P who goes for Trudeau's throat.

Hopefully when they focus on how truly vile PP is they will then look seriously towards the NDP.

I'm disappointed that the NDP has become liberal lite but at the same time it is increasing their chances of electoral victory as the obvious alternative if it can't be the conservatives.

Poilievre is a pit bull and very good at exposing Trudeau's character. I hope the NDP lets the Conservatives take the lead in tearing down the Liberals. The NDP doesn't have to get their hands dirty. They can focus on presenting a positive path forward for Canada. Let Poilievre destroy the Conservative party and Trudeau.

The one problem might be Freeland becoming leader right before the election. Trudeau wears the liberal history of 2015 onwards.

She would be much more difficult to attack because her hands are quite clean and she is a woman. Poilievere would be judged more harshly attacking her than Trudeau. She would also be the first female elected Prime Minister. That will stack the deck in her favor. People will be predisposed to give her the benefit of the doubt.

I can't imagine Trudeau getting a job that requires him to act intelligently. Maybe he can make money doing speechifying.

He will repel centrists even more than Harper, Scheer and O'Toole did.  Harper lost centrists in his last run. Scheer and O'Toole lost because they were too far right. Poilievre is even farther right. The social conservatives and libertarians love him.  He will do a great job of attacking Trudeau and humiliating him if he is still leader. It won't make him popular. People don't like bullies. It doesn't come across as strong or trustworthy. 

I think Poilievre's chances of winning a leadership election could suffer a blow if Conservative members start disliking the freedom denying convoy’s blockades. Now that the freedom denying convoy is becoming very unpopular Conservatives are starting to call for an end to their blockades. Maybe a relative moderate like someone like Peter McKay could win the leadership race if the freedom denying convoy turns into an albatross around the necks of Conservative right wingers?

The election will be won in Southern Ontario. The economy of the area is taking a big hit. The truckers that are very underrepresented in this "truck convoy" are from the South Asian community. If the immigrant communities in that area think that the Liberals have failed them they might look to the NDP just as quickly as to the Conservatives. Especially a Conservative party listing heavily to the racist, Republican side of the spectrum.

He might even convince Mulcair to run for the CPC.

Charest is also still widely loathed in Quebec. I don't see him picking up many votes here. His former provincial coalition (basically, all non-separatists before the CAQ existed, except for in 2007 when he got a minority) was made up of federal Liberal voters in Montreal and the mix of Liberal/Tory/Bloc who have crossed to the CAQ in the regions and would shudder at his name coming back. At a time when the Tories are trying to distinguish themselves from the Liberal-NDP support of the Emergencies Act, they'd be bringing in a leader who used his own ad-hoc provincial version of that during brutal crackdowns on students and other dissidents a decade ago. And not to put too fine a point on it, but he's far too French to bring in the bigots that are a vital part of the base.

The Conservative leadership voting system gives equal weight to each riding regardless of membership.

this gives Quebec great weight and May be of great advantage to Charest.

Debater wrote:

When was the last time that someone became Prime Minister of Canada for the first time in his mid-60's?

Paul Martin in 2003.

JKR wrote:

josh wrote:

Not anymore.  They changed it.

What system have they moved to?

The new rules will still cap each riding's value at 100 points — but those ridings with fewer than 100 members will be worth only as many points as the number of ballots cast. That means a riding with 500 members will still be worth 100 points, but a riding with 50 members will be worth 50 points.