BC Polls

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Tue, 2023-12-05 10:22

epaulo13

drift...

‘Spend as Much Lifting Our People Up as Pushing Them Down’

BC Green Party MLA Adam Olsen is calling on B.C.’s minister of public safety to form a special policing unit dedicated to investigating the suspicious deaths and disappearances of First Nations people in the province.

Olsen, who is from the Tsartlip First Nation and represents Saanich North and the Islands, said he’d like to see B.C. investing as much in protecting First Nations people as it does in policing opposition to resource development — opposition that is frequently Indigenous-led and generally occurs in remote areas, such as the Wet’suwet’en opposition to the Coastal GasLink pipeline through northern B.C.

In 2017, the RCMP formed the Community-Industry Response Group, or C-IRG, to enforce protest-related injunctions granted to industry. Over the past five years, the force has spent more than $60 million on the unit, according to records obtained through access to information laws.

Most of that went to break up demonstrations against pipelines and old-growth logging. Under its policing agreement with the RCMP, B.C. is responsible for 70 per cent of that cost, roughly $42 million.

quote:

“We’ve seen this minister of public safety’s response to protecting the premier’s pipelines. He stood up a special unit called the Community-Industry Response Group,” Olsen said. “When will the minister of public safety spend as much lifting our people up as he is spending pushing them down?”

....end drift.

Tue, 2023-12-12 02:48

#53

jerrym

With the NDP 18% ahead of the BC Conservatives and 27% ahead of the UCP according to the latest Abacus Data poll, John Rustad suggested last week that the Cons and UCP work together to defeat the NDP in the next election. With just ten months to go before the election, a merger might be difficult to achieve. Also if they merge would BCU MLAs be willing to risk losing their nominations to more popular but non-elected Conservatives? Would Cons be willing to accept most of their MLAs being BCU MLAs who didn't want them when they are rising in the polls and when the Cons could bump many of BCU MLAs out of office in an election? Also the backroom boys in both parties may not like the threat to their position in the pecking order that comes with a merger. Both parties would also have to go their membership first. While the business community may push a merger to achieve its interests by withholding donations until they merge in the subsequent election, I don't think this is likely to work in the short time frame for the 2024 election. The deep anger generated by the political split has not even scabbed over yet and may require two new leaders, one from each party, to make reconciliation possible. But it is still possible that they might work out some kind of agreement to fight together against the NDP.

Mon, 2023-12-18 19:05

#54

jerrym

Angus Reid Poll Nov. 24 - Dec. 1 2023

Yet another poll showing the NDP with a large lead of 17% over the BC Cons and 22% over the BCU. One in three want province to have a major role in housing but two thirds prefer the decision to remain local.

NDP 42%

Cons 25%

BCU 20%

Greens 12%

Others 1%

As 2023 closes, British Columbians find themselves in a similar place as they opened the year – concerned with the rising cost of living and housing affordability and disapproving of the B.C. government’s response.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds residents just as critical in December as they were a year ago when it comes to government performance on those two key issues, while rent and mortgage costs trend persistently upward.

In December 2022, 12 per cent said the government was doing a good or very good job of handling housing affordability, while 15 per cent said the same of its cost-of-living management. Twelve months hence, those numbers are now 13 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.

The good, or at least better, news for the BC NDP: they appear to be the party most trusted to resolve these issues going forward. The party holds a 17-point advantage in vote intention over the second place BC Conservatives.

The bad news is trust in recently released housing policies is low, and the province’s push to assume jurisdiction over some municipal decision making when it comes to zoning has the potential to ruffle more than a few feathers.

After the province released new home building targets for 10 municipalities and introduced new legislation that eliminates single-family zoning, 45 per cent of residents say the province is not best to make housing decisions, preferring their own local or municipal government. That said, one-in-three (32%) say the province is better suited to make these calls.

In municipalities with more than 5,000 residents, the province’s zoning policy will now be in force. British Columbians are divided evenly over the perceived effectiveness of this, with 44 per cent saying it will help, and 41 per cent saying it will be ineffective in addressing the housing deficit.

government was doing a good or very good job of handling housing affordability, while 15 per cent said the same of its cost-of-living management. Twelve months hence, those numbers are now 13 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.

The good, or at least better, news for the BC NDP: they appear to be the party most trusted to resolve these issues going forward. The party holds a 17-point advantage in vote intention over the second place BC Conservatives.

The bad news is trust in recently released housing policies is low, and the province’s push to assume jurisdiction over some municipal decision making when it comes to zoning has the potential to ruffle more than a few feathers.

After the province released new home building targets for 10 municipalities and introduced new legislation that eliminates single-family zoning, 45 per cent of residents say the province is not best to make housing decisions, preferring their own local or municipal government. That said, one-in-three (32%) say the province is better suited to make these calls.

In municipalities with more than 5,000 residents, the province’s zoning policy will now be in force. British Columbians are divided evenly over the perceived effectiveness of this, with 44 per cent saying it will help, and 41 per cent saying it will be ineffective in addressing the housing deficit.

There is one area of more agreement, with respect to short-term rentals. More than half (56%) say that

prohibiting short-term rentals at properties where the owner does not live will be effective in creating more long-term rental stock, while 36 per cent disagree.

More Key Findings:

As has been the case for all of 2023, cost of living (66%), health care (54%), and housing affordability (44%) are the top issues for B.C. residents.

42 per cent of would-be voters say they would support the BC NDP if an election were held, while 25 per cent would vote for the surging Conservative Party of BC. One-in-five would support BC United (20%), and 12 per cent would vote for the BC Greens.

Residents in the B.C. Interior are much more opposed to the idea of provincial influence on housing decisions (61% say it should remain local versus 21% provincial), while Metro Vancouver residents are most divided (36% versus 39%).

The fall legislative session in Victoria was one focused heavily on housing policy discussions. Persistent housing affordability challenges have frustrated many in the province. In turn, the provincial government, led by Premier David Eby, has taken matters into its own hands.

The BC NDP passed several housing related measures, including restrictions on short-term rentals such as Airbnb, changes to zoning laws, and additional targets that municipalities must meet to avoid penalties. This has led many in the province, including opposition BC United leader Kevin Falcon and some mayors, to criticize the province’s speed and potential overstepping of traditional jurisdictional boundaries. For their part, the largest group, but not a majority, of B.C. residents feel housing issues should remain under the auspices of municipal or local governments. Notably, Metro Vancouver residents are least likely to feel this way and are divided overall.

The sweeping measures brought in by the B.C. government are drawing mixed reviews from residents on whether or not they will be effective in addressing the province’s housing affordability crisis. A majority (55%) believe restricting short-term rentals to only where the owner lives will be effective at addressing housing affordability in the province, but one-third (37%) disagree. There is more disagreement that ending zoning for single family homes (44% effective, 41% not effective), and setting minimum building heights and density near transit (40% effective, 42% not effective) will generate the results the BC NDP government is hoping for:

Gauging support for new housing policies

The sweeping measures brought in by the B.C. government are drawing mixed reviews from residents on whether or not they will be effective in addressing the province’s housing affordability crisis. A majority (55%) believe restricting short-term rentals to only where the owner lives will be effective at addressing housing affordability in the province, but one-third (37%) disagree. There is more disagreement that ending zoning for single family homes (44% effective, 41% not effective), and setting minimum building heights and density near transit (40% effective, 42% not effective) will generate the results the BC NDP government is hoping for:

Top issues in the province and government performance

The government’s focus on housing comes as many residents select it as the top issue facing the province. More than two-in-five (44%) believe housing affordability is a top concern for B.C. That places it third behind inflation (66%) and health care (44%), but well ahead of street crime (21%), climate change (20%) and poverty (19%):

British Columbians are critical of the government’s performance on these top issues. Few believe it has performed well on health care (26%), inflation (14%) or housing affordability (14%). On the latter two issues, majorities in fact believe the BC NDP is performing “very poorly”

Zero improvement on top affordability concerns in 2023

As concerns over affordability has festered for more than 12 months, there appears to be little progress on the file in the eyes of residents. Last December, 15 per cent said the BC NDP was doing a good job on inflation, while 12 per cent said it was performing well on housing affordability. Current assessments of government performance on both issues are statistically similar:

BC NDP lead still comfortable
The BC NDP continue to lead in vote intent, but there have been shifts on the party’s right flank.

The Conservative Party of BC, long searching for relevance in the province, now finds itself in second place, with one-in-four saying they intend to vote for the party. One-in-five say they would vote for BC United.

Vote Intent - British Columbia (Decided and leaning voters)

Combined, the two right-leaning parties in B.C. would be statistically tied with the BC NDP. This is perhaps why there have been overtures in recent weeks between the two parties on potential cooperation heading into a fall election. Adding to the intrigue of a partnership between the opposition and the Conservatives is their relative combined strength among older voters, who tend to be more active in provincial elections. The BC NDP leads among all groups currently, with greater strength among voters younger than 35:

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2023.12.18_BC.pdf

Sat, 2024-02-03 01:22

#55

jerrym

Pollara Co. Poll Jan. 8-16 2024 BCU continues to fall further behind Conservatives with NDP over 50%

NDP 51%

Cons 23%

BCU 15%

Greens 10%

Others 1%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_British_Columbia_general_election

Sat, 2024-02-03 01:28

#56

jerrym

Research Co. Poll Jan 22-24 2024 Another poll with NDP 20%+ ahead of Cons who are 8% ahead of BCU again

NDP 46%

Cons 25%

BCU 17%

Greens 11%

Others 2%

Only 41% of BC Liberal voters in 2020 say they would cast a ballot for BC United if an election were held today.

The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) keeps a double-digit lead over its closest competitor in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 46% of decided voters would support the BC NDP candidate in their riding if a provincial election took place today, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in September 2023.

The Conservative Party of BC Is in second place with 25% (+6), followed by BC United with 17% (-3) and the BC Green Party with 11% (-1), while 2% of decided voters (+1) would back other parties or independent candidates.

The proportion of undecided voters across British Columbia fell from 18% in September to 13% this month.

“More than four-in-five voters who supported the John Horgan-led BC NDP in 2020 (83%) are staying with the party under a new leader,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Only 41% of voters who backed the BC Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson would cast a ballot for BC United.”

The BC NDP remains particularly popular in Vancouver Island (52%) and Metro Vancouver (47%). The BC New Democrats hold smaller leads over the BC Conservatives in the Fraser Valley (39% to 32%) and Southern BC (37% to 27%). In Northern BC, the two parties are virtually tied (BC Conservatives 40%, BC NDP 39%).

The BC NDP is leading across all three age groups in British Columbia. Among the opposition parties, the BC Conservatives do better with voters aged 18-to-34 (28%) and aged 35-to-54 (29%), while BC United is connecting well with voters aged 55 and over (27%).

As was the case in September, 39% of British Columbians (=) select housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (22%, =), the economy and jobs (17%, +5), crime and public safety (5%, -1) and the environment (4%, -2).

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby stands at 53% (+1) this month. The proportions are lower for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (34%, -2), BC Conservative leader John Rustad (32%, +7) and BC United leader Kevin Falcon (31%, +2).

Respondents to this survey were asked if they would consider supporting each of the four main provincial parties if they ran a candidate in their riding in the next provincial election. The BC Conservatives featured candidates in 10 of 87 constituencies in the 2017 provincial election, and in 19 of 87 ridings in the 2020 ballot.

Just over two-in-five British Columbians (41%, +4) would consider supporting the BC Conservatives. This rating is lower than what is observed for the governing BC NDP (54%, +3), but higher than the proportions of residents currently willing to vote for the BC Greens (34%, -1) and BC United (33%, +1).

About a third of British Columbians (32%, =) would like to see BC United and the Conservative Party of BC merging into a single party before this year’s provincial ballot, while 45% (+2) disagree and 23% (-2) are undecided.

A merger between the two centre-right parties would find the support of 56% of British Columbians who are planning to vote for BC United and 48% of those who are planning to back the BC Conservatives.

When British Columbians assess the leaders of the Conservative Party of BC and BC United, slightly more believe Falcon is better suited than Rustad to serve as official opposition leader after the next election (23% to 19%). The two contenders are practically tied when it comes to forming the provincial government (Rustad 20%, Falcon 19%).

Rustad is seen as the best option to attract five types of voters to his party: male voters (24%), voters aged 35-to-54 (23%), voters aged 55 and over (29%) and residents of Northern BC (26%) and the Fraser Valley (23%).

Falcon is ahead on five other categories: women (19%), voters aged 18-to-34 (21%), and residents of Metro Vancouver (25%), Southern BC (21%) and Vancouver Island (20%).

https://researchco.ca/2024/01/31/bcpoli-jan2024/

Wed, 2024-02-28 14:32

#57

jerrym

I am no big fan of 338Canada and its projections but even if it is off by 15 seats on the effect of polls on BC seat projections provincially, that would still represent a staggering massive record win in seat totals for the NDP. Seat projections by party are: NDP 81; BCU 7; Cons 3; Greens 2. (https://338canada.com/bc/) However, one must still remember the old political adage: "A week in politics is an eternity". Dividing the right works in BC for the center-left, just as dividing the center-left works for the Conservatives nationally.

338Canada's individual riding projections can be seen at this url, https://338canada.com/bc/districts.htm

Thu, 2024-03-14 01:24

#58

jerrym

Premier Eby at 48% ranks third in Premier Approval in the latest Angus Reid poll on March 11, behind only Premiers Kinew and Moe respectively.

BCNDP leader David Eby is approved of by approximately half of residents (48%) ahead of an expected October election. This proportion has remained unchanged for well over a year now. Eby’s government announced significant new expenditures on housing and affordability relief in its 2024 budget which will portend more than a $7-billion deficit for 2024/25 (approximately double the projection outlined in the 2023 budget). Some critics have referred to as the party’s election platform. Much of the intrigue in the electoral contest will depend on a divided opposition, which has given the NDP a comfortable lead in vote intention thus far:

https://angusreid.org/premier-approval-march-2024/

Wed, 2024-03-20 21:26

#59

jerrym

Angus Reid Poll Feb. 28-March 6 2024

Here's the good and bad for the NDP:

Quote:
The good? The party doubles both of its closest rivals in vote intention (43% NDP, 22% BC United, 22% Conservative Party of B.C.) and is the preferred party to lead on a host of top issues facing the province, including the cost of living, and health care. The bad? For four of the five top issues facing the province, at least seven-in-ten residents say the government is doing a poor job on each. Amid this, fully half (51%) of residents say it’s time for a change in government.

Provincewide

NDP 42%

Cons 22%

BCU 22%

Greens 12%

Others 1%

Metro Van.

NDP 50%

Cons 15%

BCU 20%

Greens 12%

Lower Main./Fraser Valley

NDP 35%

Cons 28%

BCU 29%

Greens 8%

Van Island/North Coast

NDP 41%

Cons 19%

BCU 18%

Greens 22%

Interior/North

NDP 42%

Cons 32%

BCU 19%

Greens 7%

There are no shortage of story lines ahead of an expected October provincial election in British Columbia. Premier David Eby will be looking to win his first elected term, after taking over the position from John Horgan in 2022. BC United will be hoping to overcome a precipitous fall in the polls, and the previously single digit polling provincial Conservative Party will hope to prove that they are indeed more than a spillover choice from the surging federal brand.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds conditions comfortable yet potentially concerning for the governing BC NDP. The good? The party doubles both of its closest rivals in vote intention (43% NDP, 22% BC United, 22% Conservative Party of B.C.) and is the preferred party to lead on a host of top issues facing the province, including the cost of living, and health care. The bad? For four of the five top issues facing the province, at least seven-in-ten residents say the government is doing a poor job on each. Amid this, fully half (51%) of residents say it’s time for a change in government.

Nonetheless, a fractured opposition and a muddled political picture has the BC NDP coasting, at least for now. This, as BC United leader Kevin Falcon and Conservative Party of B.C. leader John Rustad both fail to break 25 per cent in favourability. With election talk likely to continue to ramp up, both leaders will have an opportunity to meet and convince voters to make their party the real threat to the incumbent BC NDP.

More Key Findings:

The Lower Mainland/Fraser Valley region is the most competitive in the province. Here, 35 per cent support the BC NDP, 29 per cent support the B.C. Conservatives, and 28 per cent support BC United.

Metro Vancouver is a BC NDP strength. Half of residents say they would vote for the party in this region, with the B.C. Conservatives a distant second place (20%)

Men are relatively divided in their vote intention, with two-in-five (38%) saying they would vote for the incumbents and one-quarter supporting each of the Conservatives (26%) and BC United (27%). Women are three times as likely to support the BC NDP than any other party.

Half of would-be voters say they are voting to block a party they dislike rather than to support one they do like. Even among those support the incumbents, just 55 per cent say they are voting for the party because they like what it stands for, while 45 per cent say they simply dislike the other options more.

Eby’s positives dwarf views of relatively unknown opposition

When David Eby took over the NDP leadership for his predecessor John Horgan, he had big shoes to fill. Horgan’s personal approval rating remained perennially in majority territory, a tough feat to replicate for most provincial leaders. Eby has yet to reach these levels. Recently, his government has faced pushback over a number of policy proposals. After announcing the implementation of changes to the BC Land Act, Eby announced that would no longer proceed. Some municipalities have also resisted changes to short-term rental rules.

Eby’s personal approval levels have remained consistently between 46 and 48 per cent for more than a year. Opposition leader Kevin Falcon faces a tougher challenge. Between October 2022 and now, his favourability has moved from 17 per cent to 21 per cent. He and Conservative Party leader John Rustad both fail to reach the one-quarter mark on that measure. Rustad and Falcon are no strangers, having served as colleagues for more than a decade, as far back as under Gordon Campbell’s B.C. Liberals. Rustad was removed from caucus in 2022 and left the party after posting climate change denying information on social media. He went on to take over the B.C. Conservative Party shortly thereafter:

Regional strengths and weaknesses

Eby’s strength resides in Metro Vancouver, but it is worth noting that he exceeds two-in-five in approval across the province. John Rustad resonates most in the Interior and North region, where his favourability jumps to 33 per cent:

Part Two: The issues

The provincial Conservative Party and opposition BC United have flirted with merger talks, but with just seven months until an expected election, time is running out for cooperation. This, as the BC NDP faces heavy criticism on many of the top issues facing the province.

Cost of living, health care, housing affordability cause most pain

For a majority of residents in the province, the cost of living and health care are the most pressing issues. Two-in-five also choose housing affordability, while street crime and public safety also eclipses the quarter mark:

In terms of provincial performance, the government has few bright spots. Relationships with the federal government and Indigenous groups are the two most highly applauded areas of governance (neither area identified as a top priority by British Columbians, however), while residents are divided over provincial performance on fighting climate change.

More troubling for the incumbents, on the other four top issues in the province (outside of climate change) at least 68 per cent say the government is performing poorly:

Despite poor reviews, NDP still most trusted on key issues

With the cost of living and health care dominating British Columbians’ priorities, it is notable that the BC NDP remains the top choice on both issues. Two-in-five say they trust the government most on health care, which has been a significant budgetary focus in recent years. Despite investments, wait times and access continue to challenge residents.

The growing cost of living has also been a top-of-mind concern in the post-pandemic environment. On this issue, one-in-three prefer to have the BC NDP continue to govern. Similar numbers of residents prefer both the BC Conservatives and BC United, while many are disenchanted with all options:

On other top issues, residents offer slight preference to the BC NDP, but are much more divided between the four major parties or outright dismissal of all options:

Part Three: Vote intention

If there is any sign in these data that portend a challenge in October for the BC NDP, it may be this: half of the province feels that it is “time for a change” in government. Governments have sustained their position in power with this sentiment, with Ontario perhaps the best recent example, but it does exemplify the threat a merger between BC United and the BC Conservatives would pose.

Divided opposition gives BC NDP comfortable lead

If this is, indeed, the slate of parties and leaders to run in an expected October election, the BC NDP appears in a comfortable position. Currently the incumbent party doubles both of its closest rivals:

Regional projections are particularly interesting in the Lower Mainland/Fraser Valley region where three parties receive 28 per cent or more of the vote share. The BC NDP stronghold appears to be Metro Vancouver, but it also holds a double-digit lead in both the Island/North Coast and Interior regions:

The BC NDP lead across all ages and among both men and women. Men, however, are much more divided than women, with more than one-quarter of each supporting the B.C. Conservative Party and BC United respectively.

Half voting for a party, half against one

One trend appears to unite British Columbians across all political affiliations. At least 45 per cent of all voters say they are voting against a party rather than for one. Those most enthusiastic about their own choice are New Democrats, but even that party’s supporters are relatively divided on this question:

https://angusreid.org/bc-spotlight-election-2024-rustad-falcon-eby/

Mon, 2024-03-25 15:06

#60

jerrym

Mainstreet Research Poll March 18-19

NDP 39.6%

Cons 34.2%

BCU 14.5%

Greens 9.6%

Others 2.1%

A new poll from Mainstreet Research asked BC Voters about how they would vote in the next Provincial and Federal elections. If an election were held today, four in ten BC electors would vote for the Governing NDP (39.6%) with over a third saying they would vote for the BC Conservatives (34.2%) and less than two in 10 would vote for BC United (14.2%) and less than one in 10 for the BC Greens (9.6%).

The gender divide is quite clear in BC in Provincial vote intentions with BC Conservatives holding a 9 point lead among male voters while trailing the NDP by 20 points among female voters. Similarly along regional lines, the BC Conservatives lead in the interior by 10 points, are tied with the NDP on Vancouver Island and trail the NDP by 11 point in greater Vancouver.

When asked about the next Federal election, the results point to a federal Conservative rout with almost 1 in 2 voters supporting Pierre Poilievre and the Federal Conservatives (49.6%). The Liberals place second with just over two in ten supporting (22.8%) and the NDP third with just below two in ten (19.4%).

There is a similar gender divide although the Conservatives lead Liberals among female voters by just 6 points, that lead among male voters is more than 45 points. Support for the Liberals is highest in greater Vancouver (26%) and highest for the NDP on Vancouver Island (22.7%).

“This deeper dive in to federal vote intentions in BC is consistent with our latest National polls” said President & CEO of Mainstreet Quito Maggi. “The Provincial numbers are interesting and continue to suggest that the BC United rebrand experiment is a failure” he added. “This is our first snapshot of BC of 2024 and is consistent with our last BC poll of 2023 that showed BC United in third. As voters come closer to an election, that support continues to erode benefitting both the NDP and the BC Conservatives.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/poll/mainstreet-british-columbia-march...

Mon, 2024-03-25 15:36

#61

jerrym

The Mainstreet poll shows the NDP just 5% ahead of the Conservatives. While all six polls since November 22 show the Cons ahead of the PCs with the exception of one of two Angus Reid polls (that one poll showed the UCP and Cons tied), this is the first to show a 20% gap between the Cons and UCP. The largest previous lead for the Cons over UCP was 9%, raising questions about whether the Mainstreet was a blip or a result of the polling method. Mainstreet has had wide discrepancies in the past from actual election results in quite a few instances, with these discreapancies always being in favour of the most conservative party. The most famous case being Naheed Nenshi's Calgary mayoral election where Mainstreet showed Nenshi losing by 17% when he ended up winning by 16.8% (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/mainstreet-calgary-poll-nenshi-bi...)

One of the problems with the poll is that Mainstreet was polling for both the federal and provincial BC Conservatives at the same time, so Poilievre's popularity may have contributed to some of the rise in their provincial cousins. Also the federal Conservatives at 49% are higher in BC than in other federal polls by other pollsters.

Having said that, there is the far from unlikely possibility of a stampede to the right-wing party with the best chance of beating the NDP, something that has repeatedly happened in the past in this province.

However, with the BC Conservatives attacking the government on anti-vax, climate change denial, anti-trans kids, and anti-UNDRIP policy (the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples) adopted by the NDP government, there is a substantial part of the BC population opposed to this agenda.

But there seems to be a complacency in the NDP, as all three of their main opposition parties have nominated large numbers of candidates, while the NDP has not nominated any, saying that there are many people seeking NDP nominations and they want to give everyone a chance to enter the party nominations process. While this has its advantages, it also means that the other parties have their candidates out their campaigning while the NDP is not even running nomination elections.

Sat, 2024-04-06 18:54

#62

jerrym

A new Leger poll shows the NDP with a 17% lead on March 22-24, instead of Mainstreet Research's 5% lead over the Cons in its March 18-19 poll. Mainstreet has frequently had wide discrepancies in the past in its polls from actual election results, with these discreapancies always being in favour of the most conservative party. The most famous case being Naheed Nenshi's Calgary mayoral election where Mainstreet showed Nenshi losing by 17% when he ended up winning by 16.8% (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/mainstreet-calgary-poll-nenshi-bi...)

However, there are issues that could reduce the NDP lead including the cost of living and the closely related housing issue, healthcare especially among the elderly, and the axe the carbon tax campaign.

Leger Poll March 22-24 2024

NDP 43%

Cons 26%

BCU 18%

Greens 11%

Others 2%

As British Columbia gears up for the October provincial election, the latest Leger polling data indicates a sustained, substantial lead for the BC NDP under the leadership of David Eby, with a robust 43% of support among decided voters. This reflects a stable support base, despite the increase in vote share from the BC Conservatives.

BC United faces a formidable challenge as it attempts to recover from a decline in poll standings now at 18%, while the BC Conservatives experience a notable surge in voter support, standing at 26%. The rise of the BC Conservatives from a marginal choice to a serious contender is particularly evident in Metro Vancouver where 28% of decided voters prefer the BC Conservatives compared to just 19% support for the BC United. Additionally, the BC Greens are holding steady at 11%. Despite these evolving dynamics, the BC NDP sustains a generous lead as the province moves closer to election day.

Conservative Party of Canada Leader Pierre Poilievre’s “Axe the Tax” campaign to eliminate the carbon tax at the federal level reveals significant support among 56% of British Columbians, while 29% oppose the campaign. This comes on the heels of a 3% decline in the environment as the most important voter issue.

Housing affordability remains the top issue in B.C. (and has remained so since May 2016) followed by health care and inflation/rising interest rates, highlighting the current economic and social challenges facing the province. Notably, healthcare saw a 15% increase (from 40% to 55%) in total importance from September 2023 to March 2024 for those in the 55+ age group.

https://leger360.com/surveys/bc-government-report-april-2024/

Mon, 2024-04-22 20:34

#63

jerrym

Liaison Strategies Poll April 2-3 (another poll showing the Cons within 5% of the NDP)

NDP 38%

Cons 34%

BCU 16%

Greens 11%

Others 2%

https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/content/files/2024/04/LS-BC-2024---Ap...

Thu, 2024-04-25 02:07

#64

jerrym

We now have four recent polls: two polls showing the NDP with a 4% and 5% lead over the Cons and two that show a 17% and 18% NDP lead over the Cons.

Research Co. Poll April 17-19

NDP 45%

Cons 27%

BCU 15%

Greens 11%

Others 1%

More than two-in-five decided voters would cast a ballot for the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) if British Columbia’s provincial election were held today, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters would back the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, down one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in January 2024.

The Conservative Party of BC Is in second place with 27% (+2), followed by BC United with 15% (-2) and the BC Green Party with 11% (=), while 1% of decided voters (-1) would support other parties or independent candidates.

The BC NDP is solidly ahead of the BC Conservatives in Vancouver Island (56%) and Metro Vancouver (47%). The races are tighter in the Fraser Valley (37% to 36%), Southern BC (35% to 32%) and Northern BC (38% to 33%).

The BC NDP is still the first choice across all three age groups in British Columbia. The BC Conservatives are more popular among voters aged 18-to-34 (34%) than among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (29%) and aged 55 and over (22%).

Just over half of British Columbians (51%, -2) approve of the way David Eby has handled his duties as Premier and BC NDP leader. Fewer than two-in-five feel the same way about BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (37%, +3), BC United leader Kevin Falcon (36%, +5) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (35%, +3).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province for 37% of British Columbians (-2). Health care is second on the list of concerns with 21% (-1), followed by the economy and jobs (18%, +1), the environment (6%, +2) and crime and public safety (5%, =).

“A third of British Columbians aged 55 and over (34%) think health care is the most pressing issue right now,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Those aged 18-to-34 and aged 35-to-54 are primarily concerned about housing, homelessness and poverty (42% and 40% respectively).”

Compared to January, there is no movement in the voting consideration question for the BC Conservatives, with 41% of British Columbians (=) saying they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting a ballot for their candidates. The rating is lower for both the BC Greens (37%, +3) and BC United (also 37%, +4), and higher for the BC NDP (54%, =).

Almost half of British Columbians (48%) agree that all political parties should establish quotas to increase the number of female candidates in the provincial election. A smaller proportion (44%) would like to see quotas to increase the number of candidates from visible minorities.

More than three-in-five British Columbians (63%) believe that, when politicians show up to festivals and celebrations (such as Vaisakhi) they are just pandering for votes and not truly interested in engaging with people from different cultures and backgrounds.

Almost two thirds of British Columbians (65%) think it should be mandatory for candidates to attend at least one public debate in their constituency with the candidates from other parties—a proportion that rises to 72% among residents of Northern BC.

Just over half of British Columbians (51%) think all political parties should compel candidates to step down if they said something offensive on social media. This course of action is favoured the most by residents of Southern BC (58%), followed by those who live in Metro Vancouver (52%), the Fraser Valley (49%), Vancouver Island (also 49%) and Northern BC (45%).

Almost two-in-five British Columbians (39%, +7) would like to see a merger encompassing BC United and the Conservative Party of BC before this year’s provincial election, while 42% (-3) disagree and 20% (-3) are not sure. The creation of a merged party is backed by more than half of British Columbians who would vote for the BC Conservatives (54%) or BC United (53%) if an election took place today.

Falcon is regarded as better suited than Rustad to attract male voters (26% to 19%), female voters (20% to 17%), voters aged 18-to-34 (23% to 17%) and voters in Metro Vancouver (25% to 19%) to BC United.

Rustad is ahead of Falcon as the best leader to attract voters aged 55 and over (30% to 20%), voters in Metro Vancouver (25% to 20%) and voters in Northern BC (27% to 17%) to the BC Conservatives.

The two party leaders are virtually tied on five other categories: forming the government after this year’s election (Falcon 21%, Rustad 20%), serving as Official Opposition leader after this year’s election (Rustad 24%, Falcon 22%), attracting voters aged 35-to-54 (Rustad 24%, Falcon 22%), attracting voters in Southern BC (Rustad 22%, Falcon 21%) and attracting voters in Vancouver Island (Falcon 21%, Rustad 20%).

https://researchco.ca/2024/04/23/bcpoli-apr2024/

BC Polls

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