BC Polls

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jerrym
BC Polls

John Horgan ranks second in Angus Reid's March 2022's Premier Approval poll, behind only Tim Houston of Nova Scotia, who is still in his honeymoon phase of power. 

Houston 73% +16
Horgan 55% +1
Legault 52% -3
Moe 51% +6
Furey 50% -1
Ford 43 +13
Higgins 36 +2
Kenney 30 +4
Stefanson 25 +4

Quote:
B.C. Premier John Horgan maintains an approval rating consistent with what it’s been for half a year. More than half (55%) of British Columbians approve of Horgan, while two-in-five (41%) disapprove. His province, too, has set the schedule to remove restrictions, albeit at a slower pace than Nova Scotia – B.C.’s vaccine passport will be in effect until at least April 8. Three-in-five British Columbians said he charted a good path through the pandemic over the last two years.

Still, Horgan doesn’t always appear to strike the right tone. He was reminded last month of his promise to deal with high gas prices four years ago during the NDP’s first term in government. An inquiry found an unexplained difference in prices between southern B.C. and the U.S. Pacific Northwest, but the government has done little besides trying to increase transparency as prices climb. Earlier this month, Horgan defended taxes on gasoline, which he said build roads, fund public transportation and modernize infrastructure. He also pointed out how fragile that infrastructure is, referencing last year’s atmospheric river which caused catastrophic flooding across the province.

https://angusreid.org/premiers-performance-march/

jerrym

Despite a new leader in Kevin Falcon, the NDP still has a 15% lead in the latest Angus Reid poll released today 44% to 29% over the Liberals with the Greens at 14%. Horgan continues to be one of the most popular premiers in the country, ranking second only to Nova Scotia's Tim Houston, who is still in the honeymoon phase. 

British Columbia’s official opposition Liberal Party elected a new leader in February. Kevin Falcon will take over from Andrew Wilkinson, and contest for Wilkinson’s Vancouver-Quilchena seat in a byelection some time in the next five months. Falcon steps into the driver seat of a party that faces an uphill battle against Premier John Horgan’s BC NDP.

In British Columbia, new BC Liberal Party leader Kevin Falcon is unknown to 35 per cent of residents and viewed unfavourably by 44 per cent.

Vote intent – BC NDP holds lead

As has been the case for the past two years since the COVID-19 pandemic began, the BC NDP holds a comfortable vote intention lead. The BC NDP won a majority government in October 2020:

Horgan continues to be one of the most popular provincial leaders in the country, approved of by 55 per cent of residents.

New BC Liberal leader Falcon is not a new face to the B.C. political scene. The three-time MLA was a cabinet minister and deputy premier in the Liberal government of former Premier Gordon Campbell. He also narrowly lost a previous Liberal leadership election to Christy Clark in 2011. However, he has been out of politics since 2013, when he decided not to seek re-election.

Falcon will have more than two years to re-introduce himself to B.C. residents before another provincial election is scheduled. Currently, 35 per cent say they have no opinion of him:

Issues

The B.C. government is among the most praised provincial governments for COVID-19 management. Outside of Atlantic Canada, the BCNDP fares best in the country (see detailed tables). The government also fares well on assessments of jobs and education. That said, housing affordability continues to be a massive source of concern and criticism for residents:

https://angusreid.org/provincial-spotlight-march-2022/

 

 

epaulo13

..oops! wrong thread

jerrym

In the Angus Reid poll of post #2,  the Liberals dropped from 38% to 29%, but the Cons climbed from 2% to 9% from the previous poll on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_British_Columbia_general_election.

Since the BC Liberals have many more federal Cons than Liberals, the BC Con votes tends to collapse, often with the help of federal Cons intimidating the provincial members who might want to build their party and more importantly because of internal party bickering, so it is likely that much of the provincial Con vote is going to disappear by election time if historic trends maintain. However, the few times it hasn't happened, it has often helped the NDP win as in 1972 and in 1996 (with the BC Reform), and in 2017, the unexpected 2,200 votes in the Courtenay-Comox riding for the Con candidate  enabled a NDP win there and made it possible for the NDP to form the government with the help of the Greens.  

So what happens to the Con vote in the next election is important. Having got burned as recently as 2017, there will likely be a full court press by free enterprise funders and the BC Liberals to prevent any significant Con vote. 

jerrym

In the first poll on Eby as Premier from Nov. 28 to Dec. 3 by Angus Reid

NDP 47%

Libs 32%

Green 14%

Cons --

Others 7%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_British_Columbia_general_election

jerrym

Angus Reid also did a more in depth analysis of BC under Premier Eby who has a +20 net approval rating

Less than a month into his term as premier, David Eby has the opportunity for a fresh start with a new-look cabinet and a relatively favourable electorate, but faces immense challenges heading into 2023.

A new study from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds British Columbians critical of the government on the most important issues facing the province.

B.C. residents rank cost of living and inflation, health care, and housing affordability as their top issues, and at least seven-in-ten say the BC NDP is doing a poor job handling each. The government performs most favourably on issues that are much lower in the public hierarchy of priorities, including COVID-19 management and the relationship between the provincial and federal governments.

In his first days as premier, Eby announced a 100-day plan to address housing affordability with three new policy changes (and one notable absence). British Columbians are largely optimistic about the impact of legalizing secondary suites, removing rental restrictions on condos and apartments, and pushing fast-growing municipalities to create building targets. In each case, residents are much more inclined to say each policy will be effective than ineffective at addressing housing supply and affordability. Many say the same of a proposed tax on home flipping, which was announced as a part of Eby’s plans in September but not ultimately included in the Bill which was passed in late November.

As this fledgling iteration of the BCNDP government heads into a new year, it does so with a comfortable advantage in vote intention. Nearly half (47%) say they would vote for the incumbent government if an election were held, compared to one-in-three (32%) who would support the newly named BC United Party (formerly the BC Liberals, official name change to take place in 2023).

More Key Findings:

  • Eby’s 46 per cent approval stands in contrast to BC United leader Kevin Falcon’s favourability rating of 22 per cent. Both are unknown to approximately three-in-ten residents.
  • More than half (54%) of Metro Vancouver residents say they would vote for the BCNDP if an election were held. This is also where Eby receives his highest levels of approval at 57 per cent.
  • The transition from BC Liberals to BC United appears unlikely to entice voters to consider the party if they had not already done so. Four per cent of past BCNDP voters and zero past Green Party voters say they will be more likely to consider the party in the next election with this change in place.

Top issues for a new year and a new leader

Former Attorney General and housing minister David Eby introduced his new cabinet last week after being sworn in as premier on November 17. Eby was quick to name housing, health care, and public safety as his top priorities for the first phase of his term, which aligns relatively closely with those priorities identified by British Columbians. Eby also announced two new cost-of-living credits for residents and businesses. That issue, alongside health care, continue to stand out amongst others at top priorities for the province:

Eby takes over a government that score well on the macro but suffers on the micro. As will be seen in subsequent sections, his own popularity and that of his government are likely sources of comfort, but performance of that same government on specific issues is poor. On each of the top three priorities at least seven-in-ten British Columbians are critical of government performance:

Overall, these scores represent a slight improvement on the overall Government Performance Index compared to earlier in the year. This score denotes average performance across all issues. The B.C. government’s 33 is near-identical to the national average received by all provinces canvassed:

Leaders now set for next election

2022 saw the coronation of two new party leaders in B.C. as Kevin Falcon won the leadership of the BC Liberals in February, and David Eby took over for John Horgan as NDP leader and premier last month. Both leaders remain an unknown quantity to three-in-ten residents, but Eby has a clear advantage among the seven-in-ten who know enough to appraise either.

Eby undoubtedly has a tough act to follow. John Horgan left on a high note (at least with the public) and remained popular during the bulk of his term. At first measure, Eby’s public opinion profile appears comparable to his predecessor, thought with a much larger unknown factor, having not run through an election campaign yet:

Eby has served as an MLA for Vancouver-Point Grey for nearly a decade, and as such, is better known in Metro Vancouver than elsewhere in the province. That said, he garners more approval than disapproval in every region of the province at this point:

Housing policies and their potential impact

Among the first orders of business for the new government is tackling the housing affordability crisis. Sales and prices in the province have dropped slightly in year-over-year comparisons, but the average home price and high rental rates still have many in B.C. struggling. The BCNDP quickly enacted the Housing Supply Act which, among other changes, will require fast-growing municipalities to set housing development targets, amend the Strata Act to remove rental and age-related restrictions from apartments and condominiums, and legalize secondary suites across the province.

Asked how they feel about these changes, British Columbians are largely optimistic. Three-in-five (62%) say that opening up secondary suites is an effective way to improve housing affordability. Residents are more reserved about the effectiveness of these other two measures, but ‘effective’ is the top choice in response to each:

Majority enthusiasm is shown among both potential BCNDP and BC Liberal voters for the concept of legalizing secondary suites across the province, while non-incumbent supporters are more hesitant about the effectiveness of creating home building targets for municipalities:

*small sample size, interpret with caution

One policy that a majority of residents would evidently like to see is an additional tax on house flipping. This was included in Eby’s September announcement regarding changes to improve housing affordability but was not apparent in legislation passed in November. Those who would support the BC Liberals are deeply divided about this idea, while Green and NDP voters overwhelmingly favour it:

*small sample size, interpret with caution

BCNDP leads in vote intention

The political environment for the BCNDP appears to this point to be minimally affected by ongoing concerns about housing, affordability, and health care. While residents are clearly critical of the government on these issues, they still prefer the BCNDP to steward the province for the coming years.

Asked how they would vote if an election were held, nearly half (47%) say that they would vote for the BCNDP representative in their electoral district. One-in-three would support the BC Liberals (32%), while 14 per cent would vote for the BC Green Party:

Regionally, the BCNDP is strongest in Metro Vancouver, but similarly comfortable in the Island-North Coast region. The BC Liberals are competitive in other regions, but hold no distinct advantage in any part of the province currently:

The current government holds an immense advantage among women in the province, while the opposition is tied among men. British Columbians across all age groups support the BCNDP over other options by at least 14 points:

https://angusreid.org/bc-issues-eby-falcon-housing/

jerrym

Leger Poll Jan. 22-23

NDP 47%

BC United 28%

Green 10%

Cons 12%

Others 3%

 

Leader Approval Ratings

NDP Eby 49%

BC United Falcon 31%

Greens Furstenau 30%

Cons Bolin 18%

Quote:

Approval ratings and opinion changes reveal Eby is in a very solid position whereas the remaining leaders appear to be losing ground more than they are gaining.

Approval Ratings of Current Government on Key Issues

As is typical (even with a popular government in power), approval ratings for the current NDP government on their handling of various issues are a mixed bag. Some are trending up, some down, but the majority are steady since 2021.

BC Voting Intentions

In keeping with leader approval ratings, voting intentions for the current government are also on solid ground. BC Liberals remain in a distant but stable second place. Greens have lost past gains whereas Conservatives have regained past losses.


https://legermarketing.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Re...

jerrym

On February 16th, John Rustad left the BC United Party (formerly the BC Liberals until late 2022) to join the BC Conservatives, citing irreconcilable differences with BC United leader Kevin Falcon, giving the Cons their first MLA since 2012. It could seriously crimp the BC United voter share in the future. 

For the first time in over a decade, the British Columbia legislature will sit a Conservative MLA.

On Thursday, Independent Nechako Lakes MLA John Rustad announced he was crossing the floor to the Conservative Party of British Columbia – almost six months after he was removed from the BC Liberal caucus by party leader Kevin Falcon before the party rebranded as BC United.

“As a British Columbian, I believe in what our province has to offer, but we are going to need to fight for it. I believe in a more self-sufficient BC, ripe with economic opportunity, compassion for those in need and a protection for our most personal freedoms. Only one party offers this vision – the Conservative Party of BC,” Rustad told True North. 

Rustad recently criticized the political scene in BC, saying there’s really not much diversity.

“I consider myself one of thousands of British Columbians who are fed up with the false choice between the BC NDP and the BC NDP-lite or so-called ‘BC United’,” he said.

Falcon removed Rustad from the Liberal caucus in August. He said Rustad’s pattern of dissident behaviour was not compatible with the party.

“While a diversity of perspectives are encouraged […] they cannot exist without that important foundation in place,” said Falcon.

Rustad had been criticizing aspects of the Liberal party’s stance on climate change. Liberal leader Falcon said that was at cross-purposes with the party.

Shortly before being ejected, Rustad shared a social media post which criticized the connection between CO2 emissions and climate change.

“I do not plan to stay silent on the many issues that are just wrong,” he later said. “I plan to be vocal about them.”

“It doesn’t serve the environment movement well, it doesn’t serve us as a province well.”

The last sitting Conservative MLA was John van Dongen who briefly represented the party in 2012. 

The BC Conservative Party has undergone a rebranding and recently updated its platform. The party fielded candidates in recent provincial byelections, including in Falcon’s home riding, as well as in Surrey South where candidate Harman Bhangu received 12.7% of the vote. 

https://tnc.news/2023/02/16/bc-conservatives-get-their-first-sitting-mla...

jerrym

Research Co. poll Feb. 10

NDP 44%

BC United 36%

Green 16%

Cons 2%

Others 2%

The BC New Democratic Party (NDP) maintains a high level of support under new leader David Eby, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their constituency if an election were held today, unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2022, when John Horgan was premier.

The BC Liberals are in second place with 36% (+1), followed by the BC Green Party with 16% (+1) and the BC Conservative Party with 2% (-2).

“Support for the BC NDP remains strong in Vancouver Island (59%), while the BC Liberals dominate in Southern BC (53%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats have smaller leads over the BC Liberals in Northern BC (47% to 43%), Metro Vancouver (44% to 38%) and the Fraser Valley (39% to 26%).”

Almost three-in-five British Columbians (59%) approve of the way Eby has performed as premier and leader of the BC NDP. The rating improved this month for both BC Liberals leader Kevin Falcon (44%, +8) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (42%, +7).

More than a third of British Columbians (34%, -4) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province. Health care is a close second (29%, +1), followed by the economy and jobs (13%, +2) the environment (6%, =) and crime and public safety (5%, -3).

Respondents to this survey were asked to choose which of the two main party leaders is best suited to manage eight different issues. Eby has small leads over Falcon on three broad themes: crime and public safety (31% to 27%), energy (also 31% to 27%) and the economy and jobs (34% to 28%).

Eby’s advantage over Falcon is more decisive on five other issues: housing, poverty and homelessness (40% to 21%), health care (40% to 24%), the environment (37% to 18%), education (37% to 22%) and accountability (35% to 22%)

A separate question gauged whether the leaders of the BC NDP and the BC Liberals possess specific characteristics that can be found in politicians.

Majorities of British Columbians think Eby is a good speaker and communicator (56%) and has a vision for the future of British Columbia (54%).

At least two-in-five residents of the province think the current premier understands their problems (47%), is in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (43%), is a strong and decisive leader (42%), inspires confidence (41%) and generally agrees with people on issues they care about (40%).

Fewer British Columbians believe Eby is honest and trustworthy (39%), shares their values (36%), is a good economic manager (35%) and is patronizing (27%).

More than a third of British Columbians think Falcon is good speaker and communicator (46%), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (42%) and is a strong and decisive leader (37%).

Fewer residents say the leader of the BC Liberals inspires confidence (33%), understands the problems of residents (32%), is a good economic manager (also 32%), is patronizing (31%), is in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (30%), generally agrees with people on issues they care about (28%), shares their values (27%) and is honest and trustworthy (26%).

https://researchco.ca/2023/02/10/bcpoli-2023/

jerrym

David Eby has 49% approval versus 33% disapproval for a +16% overall ranking with 18% unsure since he is new premier who has not had an election to make him better known. 

Text Description automatically generated

Premier and NDP leader David Eby spoke out against privatization promotion as he and Trudeau announced a new 10-year health care funding agreement early in March. Eby, on the job since being sworn in to replace John Horgan in November, has announced a number of policies aimed at solving the province’s housing and cost-of-living crises, including a standalone ministry to tackle housing and the removal of some age-related rental restrictions.

The percentage of British Columbians holding no opinion of Eby has dropped 10-points since December and he is approved of by 48 per cent of British Columbians.

https://angusreid.org/premiers-approval-march-2023/

jerrym

Nechako Lakes MLA John Rustad, who left the BC Liberals to join the BC Conservatives, announced he is running for the leadership of the party. His reason for leaving the BC Liberals: he claims, it is "too woke", thereby giving a whole new definition to "woke". Having a leader in the legislature could raise the profile of provinical Conservatives and possibly their popularity, as well as primarily taking votes from the BC Liberals if he is successful. 

Nechako Lakes MLA John Rustad, a former BC Liberal, announced Thursday he is running to become BC Conservative leader, saying voters need an alternative to the province’s two main parties.

Rustad talked about the need to form a broad coalition, but made specific overtures to truck convoy supporters and people concerned with what their children are learning in schools being at odds with the “family values” they may have at home.

“We have an NDP party, we have an NDP-lite party, or whatever the BC Liberal Party are calling themselves these days, but we do not have a party that actually promotes and supports people individually to be able to fight for their ridings,” Rustad said in a phone interview.  “We also do not have a party that’s going to stand up and just fight for everyday British Columbians.”

Rustad said neither the NDP nor the Liberals are providing the options he believes British Columbians want. “The province needs to go in a different direction and I feel that the Conservative Party of British Columbia can build that new coalition and provide that direction for the province.”

While the BC Conservative party ran candidates in just 19 of the province’s 87 constituencies in the last election and received less than two per cent of the vote, a reinvigorated party has the potential to be a significant factor in close races the next time the province goes to the polls.

BC Liberal Leader Kevin Falcon kicked Rustad out of the party caucus in August after the northern B.C. MLA posted tweets questioning climate science and declined to commit to sticking to the party’s platform on the issue. Rustad sat for several months as an Independent before announcing in February that he would join the BC Conservatives and become the party’s sole MLA. When the leadership came open, he was immediately seen as a frontrunner for the job. 

“The key in my mind is we cannot be a party that is driven by ideology,” said Rustad. “It can’t be about Conservatives, or Liberals, or NDP, it has to be a party about British Columbians to be a true coalition, because you need to be able to draw across the political spectrum.”

Many people feel alienated from politics and don’t see either the government or Falcon’s opposition representing their values, he said. 

“He’s trying to follow this woke ideology and I just don’t believe it’s going to resonate with people in this province,” Rustad said. “I just think quite frankly the Liberal party has run its course. It’s lost its moral compass. It is no longer a coalition party and we have to have a new coalition party to be able to have an opportunity to govern in this province.”

Rustad made clear where the first building blocks for a coalition are likely to come from.

“I am the only MLA who has publicly supported the freedom movement in our province. I am proudly pro-freedom and pro-trucker, and I’m fighting to end mandates and hire back our health-care heroes.” He talked about fighting for affordability and good paying jobs, but also “for parents rights to teach their children their family values.” 

If he’s wanting to build a coalition, why start with groups that some mainstream voters might be reluctant to be associated with?

“The people who I mentioned in the press release really don’t have a home right now,” Rustad said, “so I thought I would reach out to them and show that we can be a home for them, but we obviously need to be much bigger than that if we want to be a true coalition to govern the province of British Columbia.”

And how exactly are parents prevented from teaching their values to their children?  “I hear from a lot of people around the province that our education system is being diluted, it has been watered down, and needs quite frankly to be refocused on academics to be able to prepare students for their future,” said Rustad.  “Go and look at the curriculum and all the values and the issues that are being taught in our classrooms today,” he said. “There is a wide range of them and I’m not going to label any one particular thing, but we seem to have got away from the basics of education and what the purpose of our education is for.” The education system should be teaching kids “how” to think, not “what” to think, he said.

Despite the clear appeals to social conservatives who may not feel at home in the larger parties, Rustad insisted a BC Conservative party under his leadership would be welcoming to all. “As a political party we should not be hiving off groups and labelling groups and practising the politics of division,” he said. 

Rustad was first elected in 2005 and served as the minister of Aboriginal relations and reconciliation in then premier Christy Clark’s government. He is the first person to announce he is seeking the BC Conservative leadership. Applications are due by Tuesday and a vote is scheduled for May 28 if it’s needed. 

The speed of the contest makes sense so that the party can be ready for either an early election or the one scheduled for October 2024, said Rustad, adding the goal is to run candidates in every constituency and for enough of them to win to form the government.  “It’s a long way to go and I know there’s a short time to get there, but that’s the goal,” he said. “I’m optimistic we’ll be able to grow this party.”

https://thetyee.ca/News/2023/03/24/MLA-Rustad-Launches-Conservative-Lead...

 

jerrym

wrong thread

Ken Burch

Didn't they BC Liberals change their name to BC Unity?

jerrym

Ken Burch wrote:

Didn't they BC Liberals change their name to BC Unity?

Yes the BC Liberals are now the BC United Party. However, John Rustad was booted out of the party in August when they were still the BC Liberals. They voted to change their name in November. Rustad joined the Conservatives in February and is now running for the party leadership in May. After all, the BC Liberals were and the BC United Party is still predominantly the home of federal Conservatives, with a smattering of federal Liberals added on. The Conservatives have a fair number of people who share their belief system with Rustad of extreme right-wing economics and social conservatism, but have been pressured to stay in a united right-wing party since the 1940s by the threat that a split on the right would lead to a NDP victory. This is what has actually happened in every election that the NDP won (1972, 1991, 1996, and 2017), except the last one when the NDP perceived success in dealing with Covid gave them a sweeping victory. Even in 2017, the NDP were able to win with the Conservatives getting only well below 5% of the vote because in one riding their 2,000 votes enabled a NDP victory in that riding, that was just enough to help the NDP form a coalition with the Greens to form government by a one seat margin. So having a seat in the legislature and a greater voice for the Conservatives could well be determinative in the next election.

kropotkin1951

The BC Liberal's voted to change the name but so far they still have not done it officially. Maybe they are having problems with the use of United. I prefer to call them BC Soccer.

https://www.leg.bc.ca/content-committees/Pages/Current-Party-Standings.aspx

Pogo Pogo's picture

I think they are still negotiating with Graham Lea's estate.

jerrym

For those who don't know, Graham Lea was a BC NDP MLA and cabinet minister from 1972 to 1984 who then left the party to form the short-lived BC United Party. "Graham Lea becomes an Independent on June 20, 1984, and on February 8, 1985, he forms the United Party. He dissolves the United Party to join the Progressive Conservatives on March 26, 1986." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/33rd_Parliament_of_British_Columbia)

Lea served in the provincial cabinet as Minister of Highways in the Barrett government and as opposition critic for a number of economic portfolios .[1] After an unsuccessful bid for the leadership of the NDP in 1984, he sat as an independent. Lea then sat as a member of the short-lived United Party of British Columbia. In 1986, he became a Progressive Conservative party member. Lea did not run for reelection in 1986. Following his political career Lea served as Executive Director of the Truck Loggers Association for 11 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_Lea

 

jerrym

Former BC Liberal cabinet minister John Rustad has been acclaimed leader of the BC Conservatives when no other candidate stepped forward for the job. He could make the road to power more difficult for the Liberals both because he has an axe to grind after being booted out of the Liberals last August and because the Liberals cannot assume their right flank has no opponents that could take voter share from them. 

A former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister who has been sitting in the legislature as an independent is the new leader of the provincial Conservatives, potentially providing a challenge for his former party. John Rustad, the member of the legislature for Nechako Lakes, was acclaimed leader of the Conservative Party of B.C. as the only candidate who entered the race.

Rustad, 60, replaces Trevor Bolin, who was serving as interim leader. The newly acclaimed leader, whose climate change views prompted his expulsion from the Opposition Liberals, says he's building a grassroots coalition for voters who don't support the province's left-of-centre direction. Rustad was dumped from the B.C. Liberal party caucus by Leader Kevin Falcon last August for his public statements and social media posts suggesting climate change is not caused by carbon dioxide emissions. 

At the time, Rustad told CBC News he believed global climate policies designed to reduce carbon emissions were doing "real harm," and it was important for him to speak out about them. "People have a sense that something's not quite right, and whether it's in our health care system or whether it's the crime on the street, whether it's affordability or just people trying to get on with day-to-day life, they are not happy,'' he said in an interview on Friday. With the two options, which are both basically left-of-centre, the B.C. Liberals and the NDP, they are not really offering the kind of option that I'm hearing from people that they want to see,'' said Rustad, speaking by phone from the side of the highway on the way to his home in Vanderhoof, about 100 kilometres west of Prince George. ...

Rustad, who once held cabinet posts in forests and Indigenous affairs in former B.C. Liberal governments, announced last month he was joining the B.C. Conservatives, who received less than two per cent of the vote in the 2020 provincial election. "The reason I'm in this is because the [Liberal] party removed me,'' he said. "They kicked me out. We'll see how things go.'' Rustad said he will work to bring people together in an effort to build a grassroots movement of supporters in time for the fall 2024 provincial election.

Political scientist Hamish Telford said the Conservatives in B.C. will likely remain a minimal force, but they could cause political damage in tight ridings where constituencies lean to the right. "I think it's very unlikely the B.C. Conservative Party is going to become a major player in B.C. politics over the next while and into the next election,'' said Telford, who teaches at the University of the Fraser Valley. "But they don't have to become a very big force at all to be a factor.''

He said in the 2020 B.C. election, where the NDP formed a majority, Conservative candidates siphoned votes from Liberal candidates in tight ridings in the Fraser Valley and Interior that were won by the NDP. "That suggests there was some vote-splitting going on on the right making life more difficult for the B.C. Liberals,'' said Telford.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/john-rustad-leader-bc-co...

kropotkin1951

This show is my go do to get the latest in BC politics. The panel forum includes talking heads from various party's spin doctors. Of note, for all people who don't reside in BC, this panel's consensus is that not only does the federal budget not address any of BC's stated needs but sadly that is just par for the course since forever and it doesn't matter whether it is Tweedle Dee or Tweedle Dumb that is governing. 

What does BC think of the latest federal budget - not much, it turns out, as Ottawa fails to deliver on several fronts. Plus, a wave of disturbing violence on BC streets raises the temperature on crime. Host Rob Shaw is joined by Kareem Allam, Jeff Ferrier and Allie Blades.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8sRSorhBgI&t=21s

jerrym

Angus Reid Poll Released April 12

NDP 45%

BC United 31%

Green 16%

Cons N/A

Others 8%

Despite the cost of living crisis, the NDP remains 14% ahead of the Liberals, partly because their leader, Kevin Falcon only has a 22% favourability rating, 9% below his party. The fact that the poll did not include the Conservatives as a choice, but 8% still picked "Other" also does not bode well for the BC Liberals/BC United Party as it is highly likely that many of the "Other" voters would prefer the BC Conservatives, especially now that it has a leader, John Rustad, who has a seat in the legislature. Angus Reid poll also shows the NDP up 4% since their fall 2022 poll while the Liberals/United party is down 3% and the Greens are down 1%, suggesting that the new Premier, David Eby, is making a favourable impression so far. However, cost-of-living, including housing, remains an issue that could cause problems in the future, as two thirds of those polled see the NDP as doing a poor job on this issue. 

 Two competing ideas can be true at the same time in politics and one need look no further than British Columbia for evidence of this.

A new study from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that on one hand, B.C. residents voice widespread dissatisfaction with their government on the most important issues facing the province. In fact, at least two-thirds say the B.C. NDP are doing a poor job of handling the cost-of-living crisis, health care and housing affordability.

On the other, Premier David Eby remains popular, and his party holds a comfortable and continuing lead in vote intention. Eby entered his post at an opportune time, taking over a $5.7-billion surplus, which has allowed the government to announce a plethora of spending priorities.

As the one-year mark of Kevin Falcon’s tenure as B.C. Liberal (now B.C. United) leader passes, his personal favourability rating sits at 22 per cent. Falcon has yet to resonate with many, as three-in-ten still say they have no opinion of him.

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Whether residents trust the current government to guide the province out of the challenges it currently faces, or they see no current alterative that they prefer, this consistent advantage for the B.C. NDP has the party in good shape if an election takes place this year. The B.C. NDP are the preferred choice for 45 per cent of would-be voters currently, with the opposition B.C. Liberals supported by 31 per cent.

These evident challenges, however, offer the opposition a foothold to gain ground. The saying goes that a crisis is an opportunity riding a dangerous wind, and British Columbians appear to see the wind guiding more than one. Three-in-five say that the cost of living is among their top concerns (63%), alongside health care (50%) and housing affordability (40%). No other issue rises above 24 per cent.

https://angusreid.org/british-columbia-ndp-united-liberals-david-eby-kev...

jerrym

The BC Liberals officially changed their name to the BC United Party on April 12th. But it's the same old gang. 

JKR

For the sake of full disclosure they should have changed their name on April 1st.

jerrym

Research Co. Poll May 1 - 3

NDP 46% (+2%)

BC United 33%  (-3%)

Green 16%  (No change)

Cons 4%  (+2%)

Others 1%

Party Leader Approval Ratings 

Eby NDP 59%

Falcon BC United 38%

Furstenau Green 40%

Rustad Cons 18%

Public backing for the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) has increased over the past three months in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 46% of decided voters would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency if an election took place today, up two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February.

BC United is in second place with 33% (-3 since the previous survey as BC Liberals), followed by the BC Green Party with 16% (=) and the Conservative Party of BC with 4% (+2).

“Female decided voters in British Columbia pick the BC New Democrats over BC United by a two-to-one margin (50% to 24%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The two parties are practically tied among male decided voters (42% for the BC NDP and 41% for BC United).”

Respondents to this survey were asked if they would consider voting for each of the four main parties if they ran a candidate in their constituency in the next provincial election. The BC Conservatives featured candidates in 10 of 87 constituencies in the 2017 provincial election, and in 19 of 87 ridings in the 2020 ballot.

More than three-in-five British Columbians (61%) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their riding. The rating is lower for BC United (46%), the BC Greens (37%) and the BC Conservatives (25%).

Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby maintains an approval rating of 59% across the province. The numbers are lower for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (40%, -2), BC United leader Kevin Falcon (38%, -6) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (18%).

Just under a third of British Columbians (32%, -2) select housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (28%, -1), crime and public safety (14%, +9), the economy and jobs (12%, -1) and the environment (4%, -2).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is the prevalent concern for residents of the Fraser Valley (41%), Southern BC (35%) and Metro Vancouver (33%). Health care is the main worry for residents of Vancouver Island (32%), while the economy and jobs dominates in Northern BC (28%).

Public safety is a greater concern for residents of Metro Vancouver (16%), Vancouver Island (15%) and Southern BC (12%).

https://researchco.ca/2023/05/09/bcpoli-2023-2/

jerrym

Premier Eby finds himself in the middle of the pack in the latest Premier approval ranking with BC's high housing prices being a major concern for many.

David Eby – British Columbia

NDP leader and Premier David Eby is wrapping up a two-week trade mission to Asia, meeting with representatives from South Korea, Japan, and Singapore. Eby and his delegation have not met with Chinese officials, B.C.’s second largest trade partner. One notable proposal from Japanese firm Daito would see that company build and operate rental housing in British Columbia. With homeowners and renters both struggling in the province, Eby said this is something he would support. Eby is approved of by 45 per cent of constituents, with 18 per cent remaining uncertain:

A picture containing text, screenshot, human face, font Description automatically generated

https://angusreid.org/canada-premiers-approval-doug-ford-danielle-smith-...

jerrym

In the only polls that really matter - elections - the BC United Party did not do well in the two byelections on the weekend.

In the 2023 Langford-Juan de Fuca provincial by-election they finished fourth behind second place Conservatives who won 19.9% of the vote, while BC United won 8.6% of the vote, while the NDP won 53.4% of the vote. 

In the Vancouver-Mount Pleasant provincial by-election BC United finished second to the NDP's 67.9% of the vote, but got only 13.8% of the vote, while the Conservatives got 4.9% of the vote.

BC United has to be concerned that John Rustad has revitalized the BC Conservative Party and is primarily taking votes away from BC United. Moe Sohota, definitely not my favourite cup of tea, is pretty good at analyzing BC politics and said that when he was canvassing in Langford-Juan de Fuca, many voters were saying that they saw Kevin Falcon as elitist and remote. So Rustad may be able to build the Conservatives into a political machine that will have an impact in the next election. 

Pogo Pogo's picture

While good news it is important not to put too much stake into the collapse of the Liberal/UP vote. The brand recognition is clearly not there and there was only so much that could be done in a by-election. In a general election the players will become far more clear.

That said the brand does come off as following in the footsteps of the federal and Alberta conservatives and has a strong convoy smell to it. Accurate but attractive only to the conservative base. I think they would have better success continuing to hide under a centrist big tent name.

jerrym

Pogo wrote:

That said the brand does come off as following in the footsteps of the federal and Alberta conservatives and has a strong convoy smell to it. Accurate but attractive only to the conservative base. I think they would have better success continuing to hide under a centrist big tent name.


The problem they have that even though they have dumped the Liberal name and its connotations, they have a substantial number of further right voters who see the Conservative name as more attractive, and now have a leader in Rustad who could pull some voters towards the party, enough to cause the BC United Party problems in elections where small margins can make the difference between winning and losing. They must crush the Conservatives by convincing much of the centre-to-right that the only chance of wining is BCU, which is possible but not guaranteed.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Looking from the outside I see a couple of extremes. They may end up fighting with Conservatives to show who can be the most faithful to the right and it will end up with a split vote and an electorate who sees them for what they really are. Hopefully, this gives the Greens a chance to become the electoral alternative - in the long run Green/NDP  as the ballot choice is the only way we are going to achieve real climate action. 

 Alternatively, if they can find a way to quickly overcome the Conservative threat (if you have any suggestions keep them to yourself), and will come out of it on a rising tide that obscurs their issues.

jerrym

Since the early 1940s, every NDP win has involved in the split on the right-wing vote. Even the firist Socred victory was due to it splitting off from the Liberal-Conservative coalition that also broke up. In 1972 it was the Socreds losing votes to Liberals and Conservatives that propelled the NDP to power. In the 1990s it was the Liberals draining support from the Socreds. In 2017, it was the Conservatives although winning only 0.53% of the vote provincially and running in only ten ridings, who took 2,200 votes in Courtney-Comox that enabled the NDP to win there by less than 200 votes and form a partnership with the Greens. Only in the 20220 Covid election was a NDP victory not enabled by a split right-wing voting. Hopefully, the split will continue and it may over social issues and the anti-vaccine-mask crowd thinking even the BC United Party is too centrist. 

kropotkin1951

Eby has announced more big programs in the last few months than the BC Liberal's did in years.  Falcon's ads are a lie about which government has been putting programs in place and most people know it.

If the BC United hope to win the next election they need to ditch Falcon and his advertising team.  They have a very big hill to climb because it is clear that Eby is a pragmatist not an ideologue and his politics seem to be left liberal meaning he has taken a good chunk of the old Socred/Liberal coalition by appealing to federal Liberals.  Convincing the voters that he will do better is next to impossible for worn out Falcon with his baggage, name change or no name change.

JKR

I agree. I think changing the party's name was a good political move but having Falcon as leader has, luckily for BC, been a political fumble.

jerrym

The Angus Reid poll below shows the NDP facing increasing negativity on issues, but this is not working out well for the BC United party as they are down 4% while the NDP is up 1% compared to last month's Research Co. poll. This is because "A new name and leader have yet to resonate with British Columbians. B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon is viewed favourably by 20 per cent and unfavourably by half (48%) with three-in-ten still unsure of him (31%)".
The Angus Reid poll did not canvas BC Conservative support unlike Research Co. which did. However, combining Research Co.'s 4% Conservative with its Others 1% support to total 5%, the Angus Reid poll of 10% for Others shows a substatntial increase in support for Others of 5%, which goes along with the idea that the Conservatives are growing in support, after finishing second in the Langford-Juan de Fuca byelection with 19.9% of the vote last week. 

Angus Reid poll May 30 -June3 (compared to Research Co. poll May1 -3)

NDP 47% (+1%)

BC United 29%  (-4%)

Green 14% (-2%)

Cons ---

Others 10% 

Government Performance Index

These quarterly national data take a dive into the top issues in the country at the provincial level and the corresponding satisfaction levels of Canadians through the Angus Reid Institute’s Government Performance Index. This Index is calculated in each province by taking the average number of those saying the government has done a good or great job across the issues of inflation, health care, housing affordability, climate change, public safety, the economy, education, poverty, government spending, energy policy, the opioid crisis, Indigenous concerns and the province’s relationship with the federal government. In Quebec, the government is also evaluated on residents’ assessments of how it is protecting the English and French languages.

While none of the scores this quarter reach the majority mark, Saskatchewan and Alberta have the distinction as the only two provincial governments meeting or surpassing 40 on the GPI.

Page of 18

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These low scores are emblematic of a shift in Canadian perspectives that began with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. While initially Canadians rallied around their provincial leaders in the early days of the pandemic, scores dropped precipitously as a Canadian average through 2021 and 2022 and have yet to recover. This, largely due significant challenges in both health care service and keeping up with the cost of living.

British Columbia

Page of 18

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The B.C. NDP government continues to face heavy criticism from residents on a number of fronts. Growing dissatisfaction with performance on the top three issues as chosen by British Columbians appears to be driving this increased criticism. Fewer than one-quarter are happy with Premier David Eby’s government in its handling of the cost of living, health care, and housing affordability. Staffing crises in health care remain and the B.C. NDP continues to search for answers to increase the province’s housing stock to increase affordability: While these individual measures are dramatic, perhaps even more so is the B.C. NDP’s overall GPI score, which now ranks as the lowest recorded in a decade at 27.

Despite these criticisms and the decade-low opinion of government performance, the B.C. NDP is facing little backlash in terms of voter intention. Asked how they would vote currently if an election were held, half of B.C. residents (47%) would support the incumbent party, an 18-point advantage over the opposition B.C. United.

A new name and leader have yet to resonate with British Columbians. B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon is viewed favourably by 20 per cent and unfavourably by half (48%) with three-in-ten still unsure of him (31%, see detailed tables for views of opposition leaders in each province).

Note, these data were collected prior to the provincial byelections in Langford-Juan de Fuca and Vancouver-Mount Pleasant. Both ridings are considered NDP strongholds; still, the results do not reflect well on the early tenure of Falcon. In Langford, B.C. United finished fourth, behind the B.C. Conservatives, with less than nine per cent of the vote. In Mount Pleasant, the B.C United candidate received less than 14 per cent of the vote. Falcon pointed to the name change as a factor in the party’s poor byelection showing, but noted that B.C. United has a lot of work to do ahead of a provincewide election in 2024.

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023.06.29_Provincial_G...

kropotkin1951

The BC NDP have no magic bullets for the crisis facing all governments in Canada however the people seem to like the fact they are trying by doing things not just highlighting what the problems are.  The other thing is many of our provincial problems come from under funding of critical services and infrastructure during the BC Liberal years. Falcon and his new soccer team are trying to say that the problems that built up over two decades are the result of the NDP's governance. Somehow voters seem to be smarter than that.

jerrym

In the latest Leger BC poll, taken from June 30 to July 4th, the Conservatives are showing surprising strength at 16%, ahead of the BC Greens at 11%, but well behind the NDP at 44%. As in the case of the two Ontario provincial by-elections where the Greens finished fifth behind the socially conservative anti-Covid government measures New Blue in Kanata-Carleton with just 1.37% and sixth behind Stop the New Sex Agenda and New Blue in Scarbourough-Guildwood with 0.95% of the vote, in a riding with no Stop the New Sex-Ed candidate, despite record wildfires in Canada and record global heat waves, the Greens appear to be losing ground. So the voters seem to be saying we'll just ignore the climate crisis as it gets exponentially worse. If we just pretend it's not here, maybe it will go away.

NDP 44% 

BC United 27%

Cons 16%

Green 11%

Others 3%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_British_Columbia_general_election#cit...

Leger surveyed British Columbians from June 30 to July 4, 2023, to explore their perspectives on the B.C. government, including their opinions of the party leaders, their voting intentions and more.

LEADER AWARENESS AND APPROVAL RATINGS

  • There is no party leader that British Columbians are universally aware of. The current premier, David Eby has the highest level of awareness whereas the newest leader, John Rustad, is the least well known.
  • Premier David Eby receives the highest approval rating of the leaders again this wave at 46%, relatively unchanged from January. Furstenau, Falcon and Rustad suffer from a lack of recognition (with 42% not knowing enough to rate Furstenau, 34% not knowing enough to rate Falcon and 53% not knowing enough to rate Rustad).
  • CHANGE IN OPINION OF LEADERS

  • When it comes to whether opinions of the party leaders have improved or worsened over the past six months, the upward trajectory seen for Eby last wave has been lost this time around, putting the “net” change in opinion in negative territory for the premier, as it is for all four party leaders (this means more have a worsening opinion than a better one).
  • PROVINCIAL VOTING INTENTIONS

  • If a provincial election were held tomorrow, 44% of British Columbia decided voters would vote for the BC NDP, 27% would vote for BC United, 16% would vote for the Conservative Party of BC, 11% would vote for the BC Greens and 3% would vote for another party.
  • https://leger360.com/surveys/b-c-government-report-card-july-2023/

    Pogo Pogo's picture

    In many ways it is similar to the end of Social Credit where the name (even the rebrand) was so tarnished that a new party was needed. The difference is that the Liberals (once Gordon Campbell grabbed the helm) were a nearly identical right of centre big tent party, while the Conservatives are decidedly on the right of the spectrum (not that Kevin Falcon is much of a big tent guy either).

    kropotkin1951

    The other big difference is the change in campaign funding. When the BC Liberals were born it happened because the Howe street elite said this is the party and provided the money they needed to rebrand. They did not however try a rebranding with a leader from the Socred's former cabinet. They did have many former Socred's but they had a new leader that had been the "non-partisan" Mayor of Vancouver.

    jerrym

    BC United MLA Bruce Banman has crossed the floor to the BC Conservatives, giving the party two unelected MLAs, as the parties leader John Rustad left the BC Liberals just two weeks before they officially changed their name to BC United. This gives the BC Conservative party official party status in the legislature. 

    R. Bruce Banman is a Canadian politician in the province of British Columbia. He is currently the Member of the Legislative Assembly for the electoral district of Abbotsford South. First elected in the 2020 British Columbia general election as a BC Liberal (now BC United), he crossed the floor to join the Conservative Party on September 13, 2023. Prior to his election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia, he was previously the mayor of Abbotsford, British Columbia from 2011 to 2014, and an Abbotsford city councillor from 2018 to 2021.

    Political career[Municipal politics[

    In 2011, Banman was elected mayor of Abbotsford, defeating incumbent mayor George Peary.[1] He was defeated for re-election in 2014 by Henry Braun.[2]

    Banman returned to municipal politics in 2018, in a bid for a seat on the Abbotsford City Council.[3] He was successful in his bid, and received the second-highest number of votes among the candidates.[4] Banman resigned as councillor on February 18, 2021, in order to fully devote his time to being MLA for Abbotsford South, to which he had been elected in October 2020. His resignation took effect on February 28.[5]

    Provincial politics[

    Ahead of the 2020 election, Banman was selected as the BC Liberal candidate for the seat of Abbotsford South, defeating two others for the nomination.[6] He was subsequently elected in the general election, defeating Inder Johal of the NDP by over 2,000 votes.[7]

    On September 13, 2023, Banman crossed the floor to join the Conservative Party, becoming the party's second MLA in the legislature.[8] Banman justified his party change as allowing him to better represent his constituents. His crossing gave the Conservatives official party status in the legislature, and he was named the caucus house leader.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Banman

    jerrym

    Mainstreet Research Poll Aug. 29-31, 2023

    NDP 34.8% 

    Cons 26.6%%

    BC United 21.5%

    Green 12.7%

    Others 4.3%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_British_Columbia_general_election#cit...

    The latest poll from Mainstreet Research shows the BC Conservatives jumping into second place 5% ahead of BC United and just 8% behind the NDP. While Mainstreet has often in the past had polls tilted towards right-wing parties and candidates (the most famous being the Nasheed Nenshi Calgary mayor's race where Mainstreet said Nenshi was losing by 17% when he won by 8% - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/mainstreet-polling-failure-calgar...), there is other evidence of the growing strength of the BC Conservatives. In the Langford-Juan de Fuca by-election on June 24th, the Cons with 19.86% of the vote finished second to the NDP with 53.35% of the vote, with the Greens getting 17.62% of the vote and the BC United with 8.63% of the vote. Even Leger's early July poll showed the Conservatives at 16% ahead of the Greens at 11%.
    In addition, the Mainstreet poll was conducted before BC United MLA Bruce Banman jumped to the BC Conservatives, so his jump may have been response to the poll and/or other information on the growing popularity of the Conservatives and might even increase their support further.

    jerrym

    The BC Conservative Party leader John Rustad is a climate change denier and anti-vaxxer. While no doubt some Conservative Party supporters are as unaware of his positions on these issues, the last post's poll results show that there is still substantial support both of these far-right beliefs in BC. 

    JKR

    It looks like the chances of the right consolidating behind the BC Conservatives is growing. In 1953 the right in BC consolidated behind the Socreds. Forty years later in 1993 the rights switched away from the Socreds and consolidated behind the BC Liberals. BC might be seeing another similar change. If the BC Conservatives start moving up in the polls I wouldn't be surprised if most members of the BC Liberal/ United Party move over to the BC Conservatives. The corporate leaders in BC, like elsewhere else in Canada, play the game of politics to win. They don’t let loyalty to a party label get in the way of winning elections as NDP supporters of do across Canada provincially.

    kropotkin1951

    This almost certainly means one of those two conservative parties will stop the other one from gaining enough votes to beat the BC NDP. A three way race with two almost equal right wing parties is the NDP dream.

    JKR

    Right wingers coalescing behind one right wing party is the NDP's nightmare. Unfortunately that's regularly happened here. The right in BC seems to avoid splitting the vote much more than the left does here.

    kropotkin1951

    The changes in election financing has made the mass movement less likely. When the Socred's collapsed Howe street dried up all its money to them and then opened the cheque books for Liberal candidates. Any serious right wing candidate soon joined the Liberals and ran under that banner. Now donations are from individuals which makes it harder for the corporations to turn on a dime.

    jerrym

    The drop in NDP support is IMO directly related to the cost of living, the climate crisis and the related wildfires and drought, the extremely high cost of housing, with a small additional push coming from conservative fueled social issues such as anti-vax and anti-trans movement that have combined to pull away a few voters from the party. None of these problems, other than the manufactured anti-vax and anti-trans group of voters consisting of the small group of voters who wanted some of the NDP's worker oriented policies but were social conservaties, are easily solvable. In fact, once people who have swallowed conspiracy theories, such as those of the anti-vax and anti-trans crowd, it is very hard to deprogram them since they tend to keep going to the same websites that spawned the conspiracies. The best hope for the NDP is the combination of an ongoing right-wing party split and an improvement in the economy, the benefits of which the government ensures alleviates some of the afforability and housing concerns through government policies. 

    jerrym

    Research Co. September 15-19 poll shows the NDP wit a staggering 28% lead over evenly split, statisically speaking right-wing opposition. The BC Cons at 37% are second in whether a voter would consider voting for them compared to the NDP's 51%, the Greens 35% and the BCU's 32%. Is BC United beginning a death spiral?

    NDP 48%

    BC United 20%

    Cons 19%

    Green 12%

    Others 1%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_British_Columbia_general_election#cit...

    Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue for practically two-in-five of the province’s residents.

     

    The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) remains ahead of all challengers in British Columbia’s political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

    In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 48% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their riding if an election took place today, up two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May.

    Two political parties are virtually tied for second place in the province: BC United with 20% (-13) and the Conservative Party of BC with 19% (+15). The BC Green Party is fourth with 12% (-4), while 1% of decided voters (=) would support other parties or independent candidates

    The BC NDP is in first place across all five major regions of the province, with higher support in Metro Vancouver (51%) and Vancouver Island (48%). The BC Conservatives are now second in the Fraser Valley (26%) and Northern BC (23%), while BC United is behind the BC NDP in Southern BC (29%).

    “Almost one-in-five British Columbians (18%) do not know who to vote for in a provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In our February and May surveys, only 10% of respondents were undecided.”

    Respondents to this survey were asked if they would consider supporting each of the four main provincial parties if they ran a candidate in their riding in the next provincial election. The BC Conservatives featured candidates in 10 of 87 constituencies in the 2017 provincial election, and in 19 of 87 ridings in the 2020 ballot.

    More than a third of British Columbians (37%, +12) say they would consider casting a ballot for the BC Conservatives. The rating on this question is lower for the BC Greens (35%, -2) and BC United (32%, -14), but higher for the BC NDP (51%, -10).

    Just over half of British Columbians (52%, -7) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby is handling his duties. More than a third (36%, -4) feel the same way about BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau, while the proportions are lower for BC United leader Kevin Falcon (29%, -9) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (25%, +7).

    Just under two-in-five British Columbians (39%, +7) think housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province right now, followed by health care (22%, -16), the economy and jobs (12%, =), crime and public safety (6%, -8) and the environment (also 6%, +2).

    About a third of British Columbians (32%) would like to see BC United and the Conservative Party of BC merging into a single party before the next provincial election, while 43% disagree and 25% are undecided.

    The notion of a merger between BC United and the BC Conservatives is more popular among men (38%), residents of Northern BC (also 38%), British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (42%) and BC Liberal voters in the 2020 provincial election (54%).

    When pondering the leaders of BC United and the Conservative Party of BC, more than one-in-five British Columbians believe Falcon is better suited than Rustad to form the government after the next election (21%) and serve as official opposition leader (22%).

    Falcon is currently regarded as better suited to attract six types of voters to BC United: women (20%), voters aged 18-to-34 (19%), voters aged 35-to-54 (22%) and residents of Metro Vancouver (24%), the Fraser Valley (20%) and Southern BC (also 20%).

    Rustad is seen as better suited to attract male voters (20%), voters aged 55 and over (24%) and residents in Northern BC (20%) to the BC Conservatives.

    https://researchco.ca/2023/09/26/bcpoli-sept2023/

    jerrym

    Leger Poll Sept. 15-18

    SOME OF THE KEY FINDINGS OF OUR OCTOBER 2023 B.C. GOVERNMENT REPORT CARD SURVEY INCLUDE…

    MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE AND PROVINCE TRAJECTORY

    • 29% of British Columbians think that housing prices/affordability is the most important issue facing their province. 14% think that healthcare is the most important issue, and 13% think it is inflation/rising interest rates.
    • Longer-term trending shows how much issues tend to bounce around over time as priorities, economic pressures and issues shift in BC, though housing prices/affordability has consistently led all issues since May 2016.
    • 52% of British Columbians think that things in their province are on the wrong track.

    LEADER APPROVAL RATINGS

    • Premier David Eby receives the highest approval rating of the leaders at 47%. Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau’s approval rating is 27%, BC United leader Kevin Falcon’s is 26%, and Conservative Party leader John Rustad’s is 23%.

    PROVINCIAL VOTING INTENTIONS

    • If a provincial election were held tomorrow, 42% of British Columbia decided voters would vote for the BC NDP, 25% would vote for the BC Conservative Party, 19% would vote for BC United, 10% would vote for the BC Green Party, and 3% would vote for another party.

     

    https://leger360.com/surveys/b-c-government-report-card-october-2023/

     

    jerrym

    Angus Reid Poll Oct. 2-9 showing once again the NDP with a 20%+ lead and the BCU and Conservatives statistically tied around 20% and Greens trailing at 12%. 

    In just over one year, it is expected that British Columbians will head to the polls to select their next provincial government, and this time around, it seems as though there may be a new challenger for David Eby and the BC NDP.

    New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds B.C. residents just as likely to say that they will support the burgeoning Conservative Party of B.C. as the opposition BC United.

    The latter has seen its share of the vote projection dip considerably since opting for a name change and rebrand from the BC Liberal Party. Since making that change in April of this year, BC United has dropped nine points from 31 per cent to 22 per cent. Leader Kevin Falcon himself has recently suggested the name change may have confused some would-be supporters.

    The BC Conservatives acclaimed former BC Liberal MLA John Rustad as leader earlier this year and appear to be in the midst of a surge in support. Rustad – who had been sitting as an independent since being expelled from his former party last summer – was joined in September by another party-switching colleague, Bruce Banman, giving the BC Conservatives official party status in the legislature.

    While the jockeying for second place is heating up, the BC NDP continue to hold a significant advantage. More than two-in-five British Columbians (43%) say they would support the incumbent party if an election were held, doubling both closest competitors.

    And while Premier David Eby continues to be well reviewed in his work, with a 51 per cent approval rating, his government faces significant criticism on top issues in the province. Residents choose the cost of living, health care, and housing affordability as the top three priorities, and offer negative assessments of the government’s action on each. Two-thirds (67%) say the BC NDP is performing poorly on health care, while four-in-five say this of both the cost of living (78%) and housing affordability (82%).

    More Key Findings:

    • The BC NDP lead in vote intention among all age and gender groups other than men over the age of 55. Within that group, the party trails by three points to BC United. The BC Conservative Party is most popular with men ages 35 to 54 (30% vote intention).
    • Similarly, the BC NDP hold an advantage in all regions of the province. Northern B.C and the Interior are the most competitive, with 38 per cent saying they would vote for Eby’s party and 31 per cent voicing support for BC United.
    • 28 per cent of residents have a favourable view of BC United leader Kevin Falcon, while 24 per cent say the same of BC Conservative leader John Rustad. BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau is viewed favourably by 35 per cent.

    https://angusreid.org/bc-battle-second-place-ndp-conservatives-bc-united/

     

    jerrym

    While NDP popularity remains constant at 44%, the Conservatives continue to climb  to 26% while the BCU has dropped 9% behind the Cons at just 17% in the Abacus Data poll of November 22-28. The Greens have fallen to just 9%.

    NDP 44%

    Cons 26%

    BCU 17%

    Greens 9%

    Others 3%

     

    Regionally, the BC NDP is ahead by 22-points in Metro Vancouver, by 27-points on Vancouver Island, and statistically tied with the BC Conservatives in the Interior and North.

    Interestingly, the BC NDP is ahead by 30 points among those aged 45 and over but only ahead by 3 among those under 45. The BC Conservatives do 12-points better among younger BCers than older ones.

    The BC NDP leads by 24 among women (49% to 25% for the BC Conservatives) and 12-points among men (40% to 28% for the BC Conservatives).

    Why is the NDP and Premier David Eby in such a dominant position?

    British Columbians are generally more optimistic about the direction of their province than Canadians in other provinces. In our survey, 34% of British Columbians feel the province is headed in the right direction which is 10-points higher than a recent survey we did in Ontario and 11-points higher than how Canadians feel about their own country.

    At the same time, the Eby government’s approval rating is net positive. 36% approve while 27% disapprove. Another 27% say they neither approve nor disapprove of the government’s performance.

    In terms of leader impressions, Premier Eby is by far the most popular provincial party leader. 39% have a positive impression while 25% have a negative view. In comparison, BC United Leader Kevin Falcon is net -10 with 20% positive and 30% negative. BC Greens Leader Sonia Fursteanu is even with 23% positive and 23% negative while BC Conservative Leader John Rustad is -2 with 25% positive and 27% negative. Both Rustad and Furstenau are both less well known that Eby or Falcon.

    Finally, when we ask people to rate the top two issues they want the provincial government to most prioritize, 54% select the rising cost of living, 37% want the focus to be on housing while 31% select improving the healthcare system. 

    The Upshot

    According to Abacus Data founder, Chair & CEO, David Coletto: So far, the Eby NDP government has been ammune to the inflationitis that has inflicted by the federal government and several provincial governments across the country. The Premier is both well liked and his government is seen as performing relatively well. With a divided opposition, including a very weak Official Opposition in the BC United, the BC NDP are well positioned for the provincial election in 2024. 

    Support for the BC Conservatives has shot up quickly given the party received only 2% of the vote in the 2020 provincial election. The BC Greens are also under pressure having lost more than a third of its past support.

     

    https://abacusdata.ca/bc-ndp-leads-by-18-as-bc-united-fall-well-behind-b...

    JKR

    [quote=jerrym]

    While NDP popularity remains constant at 44%, the Conservatives continue to climb  to 26% while the BCU has dropped 9% behind the Cons at just 17% in the Abacus Data poll of November 22-28. The Greens have fallen to just 9%.

    If this trend continues I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bc Conservatives and BCU eventually merge.

    jerrym

    According to the Abacus Data the NDP leads in vote rish Metro Van by 22% over the Cons and 27% over the Cons on Vancouver Island while trailing the Cons by just 1% in their historically weak of the Interior. The most surprising result is that while the NDP lead the Cons by 30% among those over 45, they are only ahead by 3% over the Cons for those under 45, as the high cost of housing and general affordability is hitting the young hard. 

    Surprisingly, speaking from a historical perspective, in the Abacus Data poll, the BC NDP is ahead by 30 points among those aged 45 and over but only ahead by 3 among those under 45. as the  Cons are 12% better among those under 45 than those over 45. The climate crisis sadly and therefore the Greens have dropped off the map due to the affordability crisis. 

    jerrym

    JKR][quote=jerrym wrote:

    While NDP popularity remains constant at 44%, the Conservatives continue to climb  to 26% while the BCU has dropped 9% behind the Cons at just 17% in the Abacus Data poll of November 22-28. The Greens have fallen to just 9%.

    If this trend continues I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bc Conservatives and BCU eventually merge.


    That may well happen but it is unlikely to happen before the next election which is scheduled for October 19, 2024 because of time constraints. Also if they merge would BCU MLAs be willing to risk losing their nominations to more popular but non-elected Conservatives? Would Cons be willing to accept most of their MLAs being BCU MLAs who didn't want them when they are rising in the polls and when the Cons could bump many of BCU MLAs out of office in an election? Also the backroom boys in both parties may not like the threat to their position in the pecking order that comes with a merger. Both parties would also have to go their membership first. While the business community may push a merger to achieve its interests by withholding donations until they merge in the subsequent election, I don't think this is likely to work in the short time frame for the 2024 election. The deep anger generated by the political split has not even scabbed over yet and may require two new leaders, one from each party, to make reconciliation possible.

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