NB politics pot pourri 3

Despite Higgs being at only 33% in Premier Popularity in the Angus Reid poll (see last post), the Liberals are only 6% at 41% ahead of the PCs at 35% in the polls. Higgs anti-trans education policies have not helped the PCs and may be hurting them. The lack of a larger lead may be the result of dissatisfaction with the federal Liberals over the increase in the carbon tax this year washing over the provincial Liberals. A 6% lead may not be enough for the Liberals because they lost the 2018 election to the PCs with a 6% lead on election night because the Liberal vote was so concentrated in Francophone ridings. Surprisingly, the nearly always seatless NDP at 13% have pulled ahead of the Greens at 10% in this poll. In the 2020 election the NDP won only 1.7% of the vote compared to the Greens 15.2% of the vote and three seats. 

The majority of New Brunswickers continue to express dissatisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by Premier Blaine Higgs, according to the latest survey by Narrative Research. Six in ten (58%, compared with 59% in August 2023) are currently dissatisfied, while one-third (35%, compared with 37%) express satisfaction with the government’s overall performance.

The Liberals have a slight lead in terms of support from decided voters. Four in ten would vote for the Liberals (41%, compared with 38% in August 2023), while slightly fewer would vote for the PCs (35%, compared with 36%) if an election were held today. Just over one in ten would vote for the NDP (13%, compared with 8%), while one in ten would vote for the Green Party (10%, down from 16%). The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick has the backing from 2% of decided voters (compared with 1%). Support for the Liberals is elevated in northern NB compared with elsewhere and among Francophones.

Blaine Higgs of the PC Party and Susan Holt of the Liberal Party are tied as most preferred for Premier, both preferred by one-quarter (25%, compared with 23% for Higgs and 28% for Holt in August 2023). Just over one in ten prefer David Coon of the Green Party (15%, compared with 13%), while only a small minority prefer either Alex White, interim leader of the NDP (6%, unchanged) or Rick DeSaulniers of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick (3%, unchanged).

https://narrativeresearch.ca/nb-the-liberals-edge-slightly-ahead-in-term...

Two thirds of New Brunswickers (up 8% since November) are expressing dissatisfaction with the Higgs PC government. 

An increasing majority of New Brunswickers express dissatisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by Premier Blaine Higgs, according to the latest survey by Narrative Research.

Two-thirds of residents (66%, up from 58% in November 2023) are currently dissatisfied with the government’s overall performance, while three in ten (29%, compared with 35%) are satisfied. While dissatisfaction levels are high across the province, they are most prevalent in northern New Brunswick, followed by Moncton and area.

When considering voting intentions, the Liberals maintain a slight lead in terms of support from decided voters. Four in ten would vote for the Liberals (40%, compared with 41% in November 2023) if an election were held today, while slightly fewer would vote for the PCs (34%, compared with 35%). Support for the Green Party is much smaller (15%, compared with 10%) as is support for the NDP (8%, compared with 13%). The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick has the backing of 2% of decided voters (unchanged).

Susan Holt of the Liberal Party gains the lead as most preferred for Premier. Holt is preferred by three in ten (31%, compared with 25% in November 2023), while Blaine Higgs of the PC party is preferred by two in ten (22%, compared with 25%). Just under two in ten prefer David Coon of the Green Party (17%, compared with 15%), while only a small minority prefer either Alex White, interim leader of the NDP (5%, compared with 6%) or Rick DeSaulniers of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick (4%, compared with 3%).

https://narrativeresearch.ca/nb-the-liberals-lead-in-terms-of-voting-int...

Premier Higgs PC government eached a conditional settlement with non-disclosure agreements with two men wrongly convicted of murder forty years ago just a couple of hours before the CBC broadcast to the entire nation of how the police had paid an informer to say in court that he saw the murder and that the prosecution never revealed to the defence that other witnesses could testify they were at a car dealership. The police also had purchase agreements from the dealership dated at the time of the killing that they did not reveal to the defence. There should be no non-disclosure agreements in this or any other case involving the government. Their lawyer said "the government "got off rather cheaply, in my humble view, because of the desperate circumstances that the two gentlemen are in". One of them has been diagnosed with cancer and given three months to live. The other, a man over 80 years old, has just lost his part-time job. "Fewer than half of the wrongly convicted people in this country have ever received compensation, according to Dalton". Police and prosecutors who knowingly put innocent people in prison should be imprisoned themselves.

The New Brunswick government has reached a conditional settlement with Robert Mailman and Walter Gillespie, who were acquitted last month after being wrongly convicted of murder nearly 40 years ago.

Ron Dalton, co-president of the organization that represents wrongfully convicted people and took on the Saint John men's case in 2018, said Thursday that he could not discuss the details of the settlement. He said he expects non-disclosure agreements to be signed by the parties. But the government "got off rather cheaply, in my humble view, because of the desperate circumstances that the two gentlemen are in," he said.

Mailman, 76, was diagnosed with terminal cancer in November and given three months to live, so "no amount of money is going to change the trajectory of what's left of his life very much," Dalton said. "He does hope to have a nicer apartment to leave his common-law wife in when he does pass, but he knows that the end is near for him."

In Gillespie's case, the day he got acquitted, he had to move out of the halfway house where he was living and lost the part-time job he had there. "So he was physically and financially worse off after he got acquitted than when he was serving his life sentence," said Dalton. He's now living in a one-room apartment in a former Saint John hotel, "so he's looking forward to getting into some better digs and having some more comfort for what's left of his days. "He's over 80 years old, so they both know that the time clock is ticking." ...

Office of the Attorney General and Premier Blaine Higgs's office did not respond to requests for comment. But Bruce Macfarlane of the Executive Council Office, told CBC, "We can confirm a tentative deal has been reached." He did not respond to other questions, such as the amount of the deal, how it's structured, or whether it comes with an apology.

Mailman and Gillespie were convicted of second-degree murder in May 1984 in the November 1983 death of George Leeman, whose beaten and burned body was found in the woods at Rockwood Park. They were sentenced to life in prison, with no chance of parole, for 18 years. The two always maintained their innocence.

In December, the federal justice minister overturned their convictions, saying new information led him to believe "a miscarriage of justice likely occurred." He granted them a new trial.

But On Jan. 4, the Crown presented no evidence and Court of King's Bench Chief Justice Tracey DeWare ruled Mailman and Gillespie were not guilty. She also apologized. "The justice system in this case failed Mr. Mailman, Mr. Gillespie and Mr. Leeman," she wrote. "For that, as Chief Justice of the Court of King's Bench of New Brunswick, I offer my sincere apology." Mailman and Gillespie have not received a formal apology from the Saint John Police Force, the Attorney General's Office or the premier, according to Dalton.

"They tend to apologize with their chequebooks." Innocence Canada was not involved in the settlement negotiations, he said. "Our organizational effort pretty much ended when their convictions were overturned and the acquittals were entered." But "I've got a bit of a personal interest in this one," said Dalton, who served alongside Mailman and Gillespie at Renous prison in 1990s and has also been exonerated for a murder he didn't commit.

Fewer than half of the wrongly convicted people in this country have ever received compensation, according to Dalton.

"I'm delighted that a satisfactory settlement has come to fruition for these two gentlemen." Innocence Canada has been involved with cases in other provinces where Dalton alleges governments "have literally waited for someone to die and not had to settle with them at all."

He believes the national media attention that Mailman and Gillespie's case garnered may have helped. "There is a cost to injustice," he said. "With 40 years of your life gone —half of Mr. Gillespie's life and over half of Mr. Mailman's life —  the least we can do is try and make the rest of their days somewhat comfortable."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/robert-mailman-walter-gille....