NB politics pot pourri 3
Cardy is probably joining the PCs.
And he's running for them:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/dominic-cardy-ndp-pc-electi...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/jennifer-mckenzie-ndp-leade...
Jennifer McKenzie, who tried to move the New Brunswick NDP back to its socialist roots, has resigned as party leader, a day after members voted to hold a leadership convention before the end of August.
In a statement Monday, McKenzie said she was resigning "effective immediately."
...
On Sunday at Moncton's Darts Club, 95 delegates took part in the vote on whether to hold a leadership convention.
The vote was close, with 52 in favour and 43 against, said Danny Légère, who holds a labour seat on the NDP provincial council. He said the results of the 2018 election definitely affected the leadership review.
From the same article:
McKenzie campaigned on a return to the NDP's socialist beginnings, promising universal childcare, pay equity, home care, better nursing home ratios and pharmacare.
This was a shift from what former leader Dominic Cardy pushed for. He alienated some people by endorsing the Energy East pipeline and distancing himself from unions. He's now a minister in the Progressive Conservative government.
AND:
In 2018, the NDP received more than 19,000 votes provincewide, a 60 per cent drop from 2014 and its worst result in a New Brunswick election in 44 years.
Okay technically those are socialist policies but it isn't Socialism. I am glad they are to some extent because Medicare is popular and it is socialist. But in the context of this article they seem to be blaming "Socialism" for the NDP's losses. Nothing in the article supports that argument. I think it is more likely the Energy East issue. Or maybe voters didn't like her. I just don't like the inference that her socialist positions were the reason for the loss without some sort of supporting information.
CBC: NBNDP cancels leadership convention after sole candidate disqualified
Not off to a good start
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-ndp-leadership-race-1.5370997
New date is June 6, 2020 - they mention up to 10 interested candidates! Is that real? does anyone in NB or the Atlantic know any names? and can start to share more about any of the potential candidates? Looks like campaigning can start now.
I hope Jean-Maurice Landry jumps in to build the party from the Acadia-Bathurst area first
There were no large movements in the December Narrative poll compared to September in New Brunswick. The Greens are third with 21% (up 3%) and the NDP is up 4%, but only to 7%.
If an election were held today, New Brunswickers indicate the PCs would garner the highest level of support, at 37%, which is consistent with results from August 2019. The gap between the PCs and the Liberal Party is now six points, with the Liberals sitting at 31% of decided voter support (compared with 29% in August).
This quarter sees the highest proportion of decided voters who say they would vote for the Green Party, with 21% indicating this choice, compared with 18% this summer. The New Democratic party holds onto 7% of the decided vote (compared with 3% in August), and the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick drops five points, down to 3% from 8% last quarter.
On the question of which party leader voters would most prefer as premier, Higgs maintains his command of the leadership ratings with 27% support (compared with 29% in August), while the newly minted Kevin Vickers of the Liberals garners 21% of the vote, up 5 points since August. Green Party leader David Coon holds onto 17% of residents’ favour, down 4 points, followed by 7% for Kris Austin of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick. Interim NDP leader MacKenzie Thomason received 4% of the vote.
https://narrativeresearch.ca/majority-satisfaction-this-quarter-for-new-...
PC Premier Blaine Higgs popularity has declined slightly but party support is up 2% to 39% according to the latest poll. The Liberals are down 3% to 28%, Greens are down 1% to 20%, and the NDP are up 1% to 8%. All parties support changes are within the margin of error.
Satisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by Premier Blaine Higgs declined slightly this past quarter, with less than half reporting satisfaction (48%, from 53% in November), according to the latest survey by Narrative Research. This reflects the lowest level of satisfaction with the government recorded in the past year. The percentage of residents expressing complete dissatisfaction has risen six points (up to 17% from 11%).
Despite lower satisfaction levels, if an election were held today, decided New Brunswick voters indicate the PCs would receive the highest level of support, at 39%, which is consistent with results from the last two quarters. The gap between the PCs and the Liberal Party has widened to 11 percentage points, with the Liberals garnering 28% of decided voter support.
The Green Party continues to hold two in ten decided voters (20%), with the New Democratic Party maintaining 8% and the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick with 4%, all relatively unchanged since the previous quarter. Among all residents, three in ten do not know who they would vote for (28%), and three percent do not plan to vote.
In terms of preference for premier, results are consistent with the past quarter. Higgs is preferred by one-quarter of residents (26% compared with 27% in November), with two in ten voicing preference for either Vickers (20% compared with 21% in November) or Coon (18% compared with 17% in November). The NDP's Thomason receives 5% of the vote, and Austin receives 3%.
https://narrativeresearch.ca/new-brunswick-pcs-hover-below-majority-sati...
Unsurprisingly, with the low levels of Covid infection Premier Blaine Higgs and the PCs retain high popularity in the polls.
Overall satisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by Premier Blaine Higgs remains high and is generally consistent with pre-election results (72% compared with 76% in August 2020). These elevated results likely reflect public’s general satisfaction with the government’s handling of the pandemic.
“This has been an extremely challenging time to govern. With increased caseloads and evidence of COVID-19 community spread, the New Brunswick government has introduced difficult restrictions on businesses and travel that have significant impact,” said Margaret Brigley, Narrative Research’s CEO. “Despite those actions, the levels of overall satisfaction enjoyed by the provincial government since the pandemic are unprecedented and suggest that New Brunswickers are generally supportive of government actions.”
While satisfaction levels are high across the province, some regional differences are evident. In particular, those in Southern New Brunswick express a somewhat higher level of satisfaction (78%) than those in Moncton and area (73%) and Northern New Brunswick (64%). ...
Results indicate that if an election were held today, New Brunswick decided voters would most likely favor the PCs (41%, compared with 44% last quarter). Support for the Liberals is generally consistent with last quarter (28%, compared with 33%), while support for the Green Party sits at 20% (compared with 14% in August 2020). The NDP receives 6% of mentions (compared with 7% last quarter), while the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick gathers 4% of the vote (compared with 2% last quarter).
In terms of preference for premier, Higgs remains most preferred this quarter, with four-in-ten residents voicing preference for Higgs as premier (39%, compared with 38% in August 2020). Melanson, who stepped in as interim Liberal leader after the election, is preferred as premier by 17% (consistent with 20% in August 2020 for Vickers), while Coon holds steady at 16% of voter preference (consistent with 14% in August 2020). Austin is preferred by 6% (compared with 3% in August 2020), and a similar percentage would prefer Thomason as premier (4%, compared with 5% in August 2020).
https://narrativeresearch.ca/overall-satisfaction-with-the-performance-o...
Conservative Premier Higgs has dropped 17% in popularity to 38% as Covid has spiked in his province.
The most sobering assessments from their constituencies are for Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and New Brunswick’s Blaine Higgs, both of whom have seen their approval crash nearly 20 points in the last quarter, from 61 and 55 per cent then to 43 and 38 per cent now respectively.
/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/news/canada/2021/10/15/theyre-gagging-people-new-brunswick-orders-halt-to-indigenous-land-acknowledgments-and-faces-a-national-backlash/_main_new_brunswick.jpg)
New Brunswick is now facing a Covid crisis after failing to heed warnings from experts, similar to conservative governments in Alberta and Saskatchewan, in the summer about the risk of a major Covid outbreak if they did so.
An infection control epidemiologist who publicly warned in July that New Brunswick was courting a COVID-19 outbreak by dropping public health restrictions too early doesn't accept the province's claims that its current health crisis could not be forecast.
"It was absolutely, absolutely abundantly clear in July that what they were doing was fundamentally wrong," said Colin Furness, an associate professor at the Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation at the University of Toronto.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/covid-warnings-ignored-nb-1...
Now the province is paying a high price for doing so.
New Brunswick has 109 new cases of COVID-19 and 63 people in hospital with the virus, 27 of them in intensive care.
The fourth wave is "hitting our province very hard," Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Jennifer Russell said Tuesday, after the province surpassed 1,000 active cases for the first time Monday, and now stands at 1,092.
A surge in new infections like this hasn't happened before and will likely continue for "some time," she said, noting it will take roughly a week for the two-week circuit breaker, which began Friday night in the "hot zones," to take effect.
The province's focus now is on the infections that develop into more serious illness and lead to hospitalizations and deaths.
People who are unvaccinated are 18 times more likely to become seriously ill if they contract the virus, Russell told the COVID briefing. ...
Since Aug. 1, the rate of ICU admissions for unvaccinated patients is 33.4 cases for every 100,000 unvaccinated New Brunswickers. By comparison, the rate among those fully vaccinated has been just 1.8 cases, Russell said, urging everyone eligible to get their shot.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/covid-19-new-brunswick-russ...
"Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has declined dramatically, reaching the lowest level in more than two decades." As a result of this, support for the PCs has falledn to 28% compared to 39% in the 2020 election, while other parties have grown in support: the Liberals are up to 38% compared to 29% just three months ago. The Greens have fallen from 22% to 14%, largely because of problems at the national level, and now are in a statistical tie with the NDP at 13%. The NDP got 1.66% of the vote in the 2020 election and 2.46% in the ridings where the party had candidates, so they some potential for growth if the party can establish an effective campaign in the future. The NDP are tied with the Liberals for the lead among 18-34 year old voters.
In a reversal from last quarter, the Liberals are now in the lead in terms of decided voting intentions. If an election were held today, close to four in ten (38%) would support the Liberals, up from 29% in August 2021, while close to three in ten (28%) would support the PCs, down from 33% in August 2021. Voter support has also declined for the Green Party (14%, compared with 22% in August 2021), while it remains stable for the NDP (13%, compared with 11% last quarter). The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick has backing from five percent of decided voters (unchanged).
Regional differences are evident, with the Liberals having majority support in Northern NB by a large margin over the PCs. The Liberals also lead in Moncton and area, whereas the PCs have a modest lead in Southern NB. Generationally there are also differences, with the NDP and Liberals being equally preferred by 18 to 34 year olds. Among those 55 years of age or older, the Liberals and PCs are virtually tied.
In terms of preference for premier, fewer residents voice a preference for Higgs as premier than three months ago (19%, compared with 25% in August 2021), and he is no longer considered the most suited premier for NB compared with other options. Support for Melanson, Interim leader of the Liberal Party, has increased (23% compared with 18% in August 2021) placing him as the most preferred for Premier. Support for all other party leaders remain consistent from three months ago, including for Coon of the Green Party (16%, compared with 18% in August 2021), Austin of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick (8%, compared with 7% three months ago) and Thomason, interim leader of the NDP (8%, compared with 7% three months ago when Chris Thompson was interim leader).
https://narrativeresearch.ca/overall-satisfaction-with-the-performance-o...
As the PCs and Higgs continue to lose support, they have fallen into a tie with the Liberals at 34% support.
Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has declined, with residents currently more inclined to be dissatisfied than satisfied.
- The PCs and Liberals remain neck in neck in terms of voter support
- Higgs, Melanson, and Coon remain in tight race as most preferred as Premier
May 25, 2022
Satisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by PC Premier Blaine Higgs has declined compared with three months ago, according to the latest survey by Narrative Research. Four in ten (40%) New Brunswick residents are currently satisfied with the government’s overall performance, down from 47 percent three months ago. Conversely, one-half (52%, compared with 47% three months ago) are dissatisfied. Regionally, Southern NB residents are split in terms of satisfaction and dissatisfaction, whereas, elsewhere, residents are more inclined to be dissatisfied than satisfied.
Voting intentions remain stable compared with three months ago. Currently, one-third (34%, unchanged from February 2022) would vote for the PCs if an election were held today, while the same proportion (34%, compared with 31%) would vote for the Liberals. Just under two in ten would vote for the Green Party (17%, compared with 16%) and one in ten would vote for the NDP (9%, compared with 11%). The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick has backing from four percent of decided voters (compared with 5%). Regional differences are evident, with the Liberals having stronger support in Northern NB and the PCs having stronger support in Southern NB.
Preference for premier also remains stable. Approximately two in ten prefer each of Higgs of the PC Party (22%, compared with 20% in February 2022), Melanson of the Liberal Party (21%, compared with 18%), or Coon of the Green Party (18%, compared with 17%) for premier. Six percent prefer the next leader of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick (compared with 10% for Kris Austin last quarter), while five percent prefer Thomason of the NDP (unchanged). Regionally, Higgs has stronger support in Southern NB and Melanson in Northern NB, while the three top leaders are essentially on par in Moncton and area.
https://narrativeresearch.ca/overall-satisfaction-with-the-performance-o...
How Trudeau is selling an export plant in Saint John New Brunswick
Coupled with calls to immediately help Europe end its reliance on Russian energy amid its war on Ukraine, the possibility of a hydrogen industry is how the feds are justifying more natural gas amid its push to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Saint John LNG is pictured.
Photo: 12 O’Clock High Drone Services
Only 41% of New Brunswickers approve of the PC provincial government while 52% disapprove.
August 30, 2022
Satisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by PC Premier Blaine Higgs remains stable compared with three months ago, according to the latest survey by Narrative Research. Four in ten (41%, compared with 40% in May 2022) New Brunswick residents are currently satisfied with the government’s overall performance, while one-half (52%, unchanged) are dissatisfied. Males, older residents, and residents whose first language is English are more likely to be satisfied.
Voting intentions have shifted compared with three months ago, with the Liberal Party now leading. Currently, four in ten (41%, up from 34% in May 2022) would vote for the Liberals if an election were held today, while three in ten (30%, compared with 34%) would vote for the PCs. Voting intentions for the Green Party remain limited (14%, compared with 17%) as do those for the NDP (11%, compared with 9%). The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick has backing from five percent of decided voters (compared with 4%). Regional differences are evident, with the Liberals having stronger support in Northern NB. Support for the PCs is stronger among males and residents whose first language is English.
Preference for premier remains stable. Approximately two in ten prefer the Liberal Party leader (interim leader Roger Melanson/new leader Susan Holt) (21%, unchanged compared with May 2022) or PC Party leader Blaine Higgs (19%, compared with 22%), and just slightly fewer prefer Coon of the Green Party (15%, compared with 18%) for premier. Five percent prefer Alex White, interim leader of the NDP (5%, unchanged compared with Mackenzie Thomason in May 2022) and four percent prefer Rick DeSaulniers of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick (compared with 6% for next leader last quarter), Regionally, Higgs has stronger support outside Northern NB, and the Liberal leader has stronger support in Northern NB.
https://narrativeresearch.ca/overall-satisfaction-with-the-performance-o...
New Brunswick was not hit as hard as the rest of Atlantic Canada by Hurricane Fiona. Nevertheless it suffered substantial damage.
https://globalnews.ca/news/9154986/hurricane-fiona-southeastern-coast-ne...
I was born in Moncton and still have relatives with summer homes in Shediac. Shediac and the rest of the Northumberland coast were hit badly but that is a small corner of the province. Pointe du Chene Wharf was especially devastated. Although I grew up in Ontario I spent every summer in Pointe du Chene until I was 13.
In Pointe-du-Chêne, N.B., the wrath of post-tropical storm Fiona remains evident.
Uprooted trees, torn-up pavement and piles of dirt and rubble.
At the wharf, the preliminary assessment brought grim news to general manager Victor Cormier.
“Fiona is probably five to eight times worse than storm Dorian,” he said on Monday. “The damages here are probably around two, three million dollars.”
The Sandbar, a restaurant on the wharf, is a total loss, Cromier said. It was pushed off its foundation and damaged by the force of the winds and storm surge Saturday.
That’s just the start of the damage, Cormier said.
Story continues below advertisement
“It’s the type of thing, when you really start looking, you find, ‘OK, there’s something else, and there is something else.’”
Cormier said he will look toward the federal and provincial government for assistance, adding the wharf is a non-profit organization and is a critical piece of infrastructure for the area.
In tourist season, more than 100,000 people visit that area. Lobster fisherman also use the wharf and that means any damage also impacts them.
https://globalnews.ca/news/9157245/fiona-damage-cleanup-southeastern-n-b/
Sounds like another right-winger's tea party.
Goodbye, we hardly knew ya!
https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/new-brunswick-s-education-minister-dominic-c...
In New Brunswick, as in Nova Scotia and Ontario, the PC government is hiring 'travelling nurses' from the private sector at two to three times the rate public sector nurses are hired, raising questions both about the loss of public sector nurses to the private sector and the gradual privatization of nursing with huge profits made by the companies from which these nurses are hired. I telling sign is the PC government won't confirm what these private sector nurses are being paid, but in Nova Scotia where public sector nurses make $40/hr, "The hourly wage for LPNs was set at $124.80, for RNs at between $134 and $138.60, and for PSWs at $96.80. Each travel nurse was also approved for up to $3,000 per month for accommodations and up to $1,000 in travel expenses such as a vehicle rental, and was given a Northwood-issued cellphone." (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-private-nursing-s...)
Travel nurses are being used by both New Brunswick health networks to help address the nursing shortage.
These are trained nurses who work for independent agencies. They are sent to different places to work on a temporary basis.
Hiring travel nurses costs more "without a doubt," according to Health Minister Bruce Fitch, but he said it also costs money to close a hospital, close a wing, or not be able to offer certain services.
"It's an investment in the health-care system here in the province of New Brunswick," Fitch said during a news scrum with reporters.
Hospitals across both health networks have faced closures, reduced hours and interruptions in services because of staffing shortages.
Fitch said the use of travel nurses is not forever, but "it's needed right now to make sure that the existing staff have the support in order to keep the facilities open, keep the facilities running and to make sure when people present themselves that they will get that service."
Margaret Melanson, interim president and CEO of Horizon Health Network, said that over the summer Horizon contacted private agencies to get help in emergency departments. She said it's not a decision taken lightly, but the health network wanted to provide relief to nurses "working daily under very challenging and difficult circumstances." ...
Sharon Smyth-Okana, senior vice-president of clinical programs and nursing at Vitalité Health Network, said in an emailed statement, in response to a CBC News request for an interview, that the use of travel nurses is recent for Vitalité, with the first contracts being signed in July 2022. She said in September, the nurses began providing services at the Campbellton Regional Hospital and the Dr. Georges-L.-Dumont University Hospital Centre in Moncton. "It is important to say that hiring travel nurses is not a practice advocated by the Network. However, our priority is to ensure the continued delivery of quality care," said Smyth-Okana. "We do it only as a last resort and for the shortest period of time possible." ...
Paula Doucet, president of the New Brunswick Nurses' Union, said travel nurses are not the solution to the nursing shortage, but that there is "no single answer. The sad part is that we had been sounding the alarm bells for decades that we were going to be in this situation," said Doucet. She doesn't believe there are enough travel nurses currently in the New Brunswick health-care system to make the impact that the government is hoping for. And she said it can also often be difficult for travel nurses to come into a new location with little support or orientation in place. ...
Doucet said she's been given a couple of figures in terms of what level of pay travel nurses are being offered to work in the province, depending on the agency and which sector.
But travel nurses are being offered much more per hour than what nurses currently in New Brunswick are making, Doucet said in an interview, but she did not have details about provisions for benefits, pension, sick days and overtime.
She said she's heard figures around $120 per hour for long-term care travel nurses, and $85 per hour for acute-care travel nurses.
CBC News tried to confirm the hourly wage of travel nurses in comparison to the wages for New Brunswick nurses. The Department of Health said the travel nurse contracts are with the regional health authorities, so they would have that information. Vitalité said in an email they are unable to provide the hourly rate paid to travel nurses, "because the companies establish global rates that include, in addition to the salary paid to nurses, administrative fees."
This is something that could "potentially sour the morale in the workplace," said Doucet, noting that it could be tough for nurses to work next to agency nurses knowing about the different pay for the same work.
Travel nurses are not the answer, said Doucet, and this is just another "Band-Aid solution."
She said there needs to be serious investments into retention and recruiting. There also needs to be more accessibility for people wanted to go into licensed practical nursing or registered nursing programs.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/health-networks-travel-nurs...
Support for PC Premier Blaine Higgs has dropped 9% since September and the PCs trail the Liberals by 9% in the December 2022 Narrative Research poll.
Satisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by PC Premier Blaine Higgs has declined compared with three months ago, according to the latest survey by Narrative Research. One-third (32%, down from 41% in August 2022) of New Brunswick residents are currently satisfied with the government’s overall performance, while six in ten (62%, up from 52%) are dissatisfied. Dissatisfaction is elevated in Northern NB and Moncton and area.
The Liberal Party continues to lead in terms of voter support. Currently, four in ten (39%, compared with 41% in August 2022) would vote for the Liberals if an election were held today, while three in ten (30%, unchanged) would vote for the PCs. Two in ten would vote for the Green Party (18%, compared with 14%), while one in ten would vote for the NDP (10%, compared with 11%). The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick has backing from two percent of decided voters (compared with 5%). Regional differences are evident, with the Liberals having stronger support in Northern NB, followed by Moncton and area. The PCs have stronger support in Southern NB.
Preference for premier has slightly shifted, and Susan Holt of the Liberal Party has gained a lead. One-quarter prefer Susan Holt of the Liberal Party (26%, up from 21% in August 2022), while two in ten prefer David Coon of the Green Party (20%, up from 15%). Blaine Higgs of the PCs has the backing of 17 percent (compared with 19%). Five percent prefer Alex White, interim leader of the NDP (5%, unchanged) and five percent prefer Rick DeSaulniers of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick (compared with 4%). Regionally, Higgs has stronger support in Southern NB, and Holt has stronger support elsewhere.
https://narrativeresearch.ca/overall-satisfaction-with-the-performance-o...
The loss of support for PC Premier Blaine Higgs in the last post is also reflected in his ranking in Premier popularity - second last with just 28%, barely beating Manitoba's Premier Stefanson at 26%.
Hard holidays for Higgs
Decisions around bilingualism have New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs in hot water this quarter. His approval stands at an all time low of 28 per cent. Higgs was criticized by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for his handling of a review of the Official Languages Act, and criticized by parents for the decision to abolish French-immersion in the province’s schools. New Brunswick is Canada’s only officially bilingual province.
https://angusreid.org/premiers-performance-dec-2022/
Would Dominic Cardy ever return to the NDP?
Would Dominic Cardy ever return to the NDP?
I think he's burnt too many bridges
The PCs (up 7% at 37%) and Liberals (down 4% at 35%) are statistically tied for the lead in the latest Narrative Research poll of New Brunswick, although "A majority of New Brunswickers express dissatisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by PC Premier Blaine Higgs". The Greens have 17% support and the NDP 9% support in the poll.
A majority of New Brunswickers express dissatisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by PC Premier Blaine Higgs, according to the latest survey by Narrative Research. That said, there has been a slight reduction in the proportion dissatisfied compared with three months ago, with just under six in ten (56%, down from 62%) currently dissatisfied. Close to four in ten (37%, compared with 32% in November 2022) New Brunswick residents are currently satisfied with the government’s overall performance. Dissatisfaction is elevated in Northern NB and Moncton and area, compared with Southern NB.
This quarter sees a shift in voting intentions among decided voters. The PCs and Liberals now have similar levels of support with an increase in support for the PCs (37%, up from 30% in November 2022) and a shift in support for the Liberals (35%, compared with 39%). Just under two in ten would vote for the Green Party (17%, compared with 18%), while one in ten would vote for the NDP (9%, compared with 10%). The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick has backing from 2% of decided voters (unchanged). Liberals have less support in Southern NB compared with elsewhere.
Preference for premier has also shifted, with Susan Holt of the Liberal Party and Blaine Higgs of the PC party tied. Susan Holt is preferred by almost one-quarter (23%, compared with 26% in November 2022), while a similar proportion prefer Blaine Higgs (22%, up from 17%). Preference for David Coon of the Green Party stands at 15% (down from 20%). Seven percent (compared with 5%) prefer Rick DeSaulniers of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick and 5% (unchanged) prefer Alex White, interim leader of the NDP.
https://narrativeresearch.ca/the-pcs-and-liberals-are-neck-in-neck-in-te...
Mi'gmawe'l Tplu'tagnn Inc., which represents eight Mi'kmaq groups in New Brunswick, is challenging the Newfoundland offshore $16 billion Bay du Nord oil project in court.
Map of Newfoundland oilfields including proposed Bay du Nord
An organization representing eight Mi'kmaq groups in New Brunswick is joining a court challenge to the federal government's approval of a new offshore oil project in Newfoundland.
Mi'gmawe'l Tplu'tagnn Inc. says a single spill from the Bay du Nord offshore oil development could harm Atlantic salmon.
The group says Ottawa did not fulfil its duty to meaningfully consult with Indigenous communities about the proposed project led by Norway-based Equinor.
The federal government gave Bay du Nord regulatory approval in April, and the project would be located about 500 kilometres northeast of St. John's if Equinor decides to go ahead.
Environmental law group Ecojustice filed an application on May 6 in Federal Court for a judicial review of Ottawa's approval of Bay du Nord's environmental assessment.
The group says Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault didn't consider the greenhouse gas emissions that would be released when the development's estimated 500 million barrels of recoverable oil are burned as fuel.
https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/new-brunswick-mi-kmaq-chiefs-join-court-chal...
In addition to eight indigenous New Brunswick groups fighting the $16 billion Bay du Nord project, there are more than 200 environmental groups from around the world fighting this project. Bay du Nord estimates of potential barrels of oil that could be produced from this oilfield have recently grown with more exploration of the field from 300 million barrels to more than 900 million barrels. An oil spill off the Newfoundland coast could cause major damage throughout Atlantic Canada including New Brunswick.
Photos: Giant Platform Towed to Hebron Field Offshore Newfoundland and Labrador: more may soon be joining them including from Qatar Energy in the Flemish Pass and Norway's Equinor Bay du Nord projects in the new black gold rush created by the war in Ukraine
Newfoundland and Labrador is sitting on billions of dollars in potential oil revenue. It's also, subsequently, generating billions of kilograms of greenhouse gases. Despite that, politicians repeatedly espouse the environmental virtues of the province's crude — a posture that has raised the stakes of a long-awaited federal government decision on Bay du Nord, an ambitious project that would move the province's offshore oil industry into deep waters never yet drilled off Canada's East Coast.
The Bay du Nord oil, buried under more than a kilometre of seawater in an area of the Atlantic known as the Flemish Pass, is allegedly "the cleanest in the world," as Liberal MP Ken MacDonald told reporters late last month. ...
But just how clean can oil get?
"When they say the cleanest oil in the country or the greenest oil in the country, well, what they're actually saying is that the production of oil is going to produce less greenhouse gas emissions," said Jean Philippe Sapinski, an assistant professor at the University of Moncton and researcher with the Corporate Mapping Project, which follows the fossil fuel industry in Canada. "It's not the production of oil that's damaging; it's when we burn the oil. And the oil is extracted to be burned."
Extraction "includes things like flaring, venting methane into the air, fixing methane leaks," explained Paasha Mahdavi, an assistant professor of political science at the University of California. Oil taken from Newfoundland's offshore is, technically, "a green comparison to, for example, the tarsands, which are very energy-intensive to produce and process." But like Sapinski, Mahdavi explains most greenhouse gases in a barrel of oil don't come from the extraction process. The entire procedure, from taking it out of the ground to exporting it, accounts for only about 15 per cent of a barrel's total emissions. "So you can have the absolute cleanest oil produced," Mahdavi said, "and you can still only absorb one-sixth of the emissions problem."
Unlike bitumen from Alberta's oilsands, it usually doesn't need extra processing to force it through a pipeline.
So when politicians talk about "clean oil," Mahdavi said, "there is some meaning to it, in the sense of the carbon intensity of oil."
Those include geological components, he says: how much sulfur is in the oil, for instance, or how "heavy" or thick the product is.
But when the oil is actually burned for energy — as jet fuel, gasoline or furnace oil — the differences between types of crude all but evaporate.
According to the Carnegie oil climate index, crude from one of Newfoundland's offshore projects, Hibernia, emits 436 kilograms of carbon per barrel when burned, compared with 466 kilograms of carbon emitted from diluted bitumen from Alberta's oilsands. That's a difference of six per cent. ...
No oil is truly clean. But when politicians talk about "clean oil," says Jordan Kinder, they may also be referring to Canada's specific regulations: its policies to control greenhouse gas emissions, like the kind contained in last month's climate plan.
Kinder, a postdoctoral researcher at McGill University, said it's true those policies are better than a lot of oil-producing regions. "But the bar is low." Kinder has been following greenwashing in the oil industry for over a decade. He points to Ezra Levant's 2011 book, Ethical Oil, as kickstarting an argument in support of Canadian crude that has today entered the mainstream. Levant's was largely viewed as a fringe position at first. "That's changing," Kinder said. "Certain elements of this argument have been adopted as common sense. That's something that you see in some of the discussion around [the Bay du Nord] project in particular, is that you can make statements about the cleanliness of oil without much qualification, when it demands qualification."
Fossil fuel expansionism is then justified, he explains, under those climate plans and regulations; as long as some carbon is sequestered, for instance, or some profits are invested into renewable energy, then it's viewed as politically acceptable to keep extracting the oil. "There's a commitment to a certain kind of future embedded within these new projects," Kinder said, "that says we are still going to be relying on oil."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/can-nl-have-clean-o...
In New Brunswick, the Premier, Blaine Higgs, has stated that the province has had an unprecedented number of wildfires with St. Andrews undergoing a mandatory evacuation.
A forest fire that forced hundreds of evacuations and destroyed a home in southwest New Brunswick remained out of control on Monday afternoon, though officials said they were hopeful things would soon change.
The fire raging near the towns of Bocabec and Chamcook was being pummelled from above by seven water bombers, while crews from 13 different fire departments in the region attacked the flames from the ground, said Kevin Theriault, chief of the fire department in Saint Andrews, N.B. The flames had stopped spreading upwards into the trees, and were instead smouldering close to the ground, he said.
Crews hoped to have the fires under control later on Monday or some time on Tuesday, Theriault told reporters, adding: “But this will be a long, drawn-out firefight for everybody for hot spots.”
New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs said it was “a very extreme situation,” adding that the province had seen an “unprecedented” number of fires so far this year....
“The fire travelled too fast to be controlled, and we ended up with the situation we’re in now with a major forest fire on our hands in Chamcook and Bocabec,” Theriault said. He estimated the fire covered about two square kilometres as of Monday morning....
Saint Andrews, N.B., Mayor Brad Henderson said earlier Monday that officials had evacuated about 400 homes, but Theriault said that figure was likely between 250 and 300. The fire chief said evacuees won’t be able to return to their homes on Monday night, but he was hopeful they’d get to go home some time on Tuesday. ...
There were 12 fires burning across New Brunswick on Monday, according to the province’s latest fire activity summary.
https://globalnews.ca/news/9730194/new-brunswick-forest-fires-evacuations/
The PCs and Liberals are tied in support at 34% in the latest Narrative Research poll while the Greens are at 19% and the NDP at 10%. Although there is growing dissatisfaction with PC Premier Higgs, the Liberals would need a significant bump in support to win as their vote tends to be very concentrated in the northern French speaking region and is therefore inefficient in terms of picking up seats.
An increased majority of New Brunswickers express dissatisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by PC Premier Blaine Higgs, according to the latest survey by Narrative Research. Two-thirds (65%, up from 56% in February 2023) are currently dissatisfied, while three in ten (31%, compared with 37%) are currently satisfied with the government’s overall performance. Dissatisfaction is highest in Northern NB and lowest in Southern NB, although a majority are dissatisfied across regions.
The PCs and Liberals continue to have similar levels of support. One-third prefer each of the PCs (34%, compared with 37% in February 2023) and the Liberals (34%, compared with 35%). Two in ten would vote for the Green Party (19%, compared with 17%), while one in ten would vote for the NDP (10%, compared with 9%). The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick has backing from 2% of decided voters (unchanged). Liberals have the highest support in Northern NB, while the PCs have the highest support in Southern NB. Moncton residents are more evenly split across the three leading parties.
Susan Holt of the Liberal Party leads as most preferred for premier. Susan Holt is, preferred by one-quarter (25%, compared with 23% in February 2023), while just under two in ten prefer either Blaine Higgs (18%, compared with 22%) or David Coon of the Green Party (17%, compared with 15%). Five percent (compared with 7%) prefer Rick DeSaulniers of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick and 5% (unchanged) prefer Alex White, interim leader of the NDP.
https://narrativeresearch.ca/nb-the-pcs-and-liberals-remain-neck-in-neck...
Premier Blaine Higgs was threatening to call a New Brunswick election over the rebellion six cabinet ministers and two other Progressive Conservative MLAs, more than a quarter of the PC caucus, that were initially opposed "over changes to Policy 713, which was designed to protect LGBTQ students". However, did return to vote against a Green bill to ban shale gas development. Green Leader David Coon is calling for Higgs resignation. The url below includes a video explaining what Policy is and Higgs proposed changes. There is a growing anti-LGBTQ movement among Conservatives.
New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs said he was willing to call an election over changes to Policy 713, which was designed to protect LGBTQ students, as he faced a rebellion from several of his top cabinet ministers Thursday. Six ministers and two backbench MLAs refused to attend the morning sitting of the legislature "as a way to express our extreme disappointment in a lack of process and transparency," they said in a statement. But any chance of the government falling appeared to fizzle by mid-afternoon when all eight returned to the house for a key vote.
The statement was signed by ministers Dororthy Shephard, Trevor Holder, Daniel Allain, Arlene Dunn, Jeff Carr, Jill Green, and backbenchers Ross Wetmore and Andrea Anderson-Mason. The eight Tories stayed away from question period less than an hour after Education Minister Bill Hogan announced the results of his review of Policy 713. The policy, enacted in 2020 after consultations with stakeholders and experts, established minimum standards for schools to ensure a safe, welcoming and inclusive environment for LGBTQ students.
Hogan's news conference laid out changes to three elements of the policy, including no longer making it mandatory for teachers and staff to respect the chosen names and pronouns of children under 16 without parental consent. The PC rebellion by more than a quarter of Higgs's caucus became clear when the eight MLAs delivered a written statement to reporters shortly before noon. Another change removes mention of gender identity when it comes to sports and other activities, saying only that students will be able to take part in safe and welcoming activities. A third change requires each school to have a general-neutral change room. In two cases, Hogan's descriptions of the changes didn't match the wording of the new document given to reporters, and the minister promised to make further changes to it.
But that wasn't enough to end the blooming PC rebellion by more than a quarter of Higgs's caucus. "It could potentially force an election," the premier told reporters moments after the dissidents released their statement. He'd been asked whether he might be forced to step down but instead raised the idea of triggering a campaign. "Would I do that? It's not without the realm of possibility. I believe that strongly in the case of finding a solution here where we do not exclude parents in their child's life." The prospect of the PCs losing a vote in the house was real for several hours. ...
A Green Party bill to ban shale gas development was due for a second reading debate and mid-afternoon vote. The statement by the eight PC dissidents did not say if they'd take part in that vote, but the government would need them in the house to stop the Green legislation from advancing. By the time the Green bill came up around 2:45 p.m., all eight were back in the house, giving the government enough votes to defeat the legislation. It wasn't clear whether they'd won any further concessions in return for their presence during a noontime caucus meeting.
Green Leader David Coon said earlier in the day that the extraordinary move by those Tories means Higgs must resign. "He clearly has lost the confidence of a sizeable part of his cabinet. He needs to go." Liberal Leader Susan Holt said her party was ready for an election and her MLAs would support any no-confidence vote against the government. "I think what we've seen today is this government is not up to the challenge of leading our education system, and not up to the challenge of leading a cabinet or a caucus," she said.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/blaine-higgs-policy-713-new...
Premier Higgs ranking second last in Premier approval, together with his very top-down management style, likely plays a role in the rebellion of eight New Brunswick PC MLAs, including six cabinet ministers, to oppose him on the changes to the legistation on LBGTQ policy discussed in the last post.
Blaine Higgs – New Brunswick
New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs continues to be one of the least approved-of premiers in the country. Three-in-ten (28%) in New Brunswick approve of Higgs.
April brought a poor omen for Higgs and the Progressive Conservatives in the form of a trio of by-election losses in the francophone northern region of the province. Higgs was quick to dismiss the losses as expected in the traditionally Liberal ridings, but one of the party’s candidates received just 8.6 per cent of the vote, a near historic low for the PC party. There has been much criticism of the PC government’s linguistic policy, including a controversial overhaul of French-language education that Higgs and the PCs retreated from.
Meanwhile, there are other issues for the PC government in the area of education. The province is reviewing its policy on LGBTQ students at school, including a section related to students adopting new pronouns or names without their parents being made aware. Higgs is against that provision, and has faced dissent from his cabinet on the proposed review.
https://angusreid.org/canada-premiers-approval-doug-ford-danielle-smith-...
Kelly Lamrock, New Brunswick's Youth, Child and Seniors Advocate, is calling out New Brunswick's Progressive government over the changes it has made to Policy 713 on creating a a safe school environment for these students, saying that they discriminate against LGBTQ2S+ students. As a lawyer, he feels certain they would not survive a charter rights challenge.
Changes announced last week to New Brunswick's policy on sexual orientation in schools are "incredibly vague and shoddy" and could open the door to discrimination, the province's youth and child advocate warned Monday. Kelly Lamrock said the vagueness of the changes could create confusion for school administrators and introduce uncertainty for children at a time when they need understanding. "The drafting here (of the policy), regardless of the issue, is so shoddy and inadvertently discriminatory that it really doesn't seem to meet anybody's purposes," he told reporters.
The Progressive Conservative government made three changes to Policy 713, which come into effect next month. Students under 16 will now need parental consent to change their name or pronouns at school; universal washrooms will have to be private; and the policy on sports no longer states students' participation will be "consistent with their gender identity."
Premier Blaine Higgs said last week the changes to the three-year-old policy were to ensure that "secrets aren't being kept from parents." "My position is very clear in relation to the role that families and parents need to play in their children's growth," he said.
Lamrock called the review, which began in April, "incoherent." Last month he revealed the review was spurred by three complaints, even though the government said they received "hundreds" of concerns from a variety of groups, including parents and teachers.
Both the old and new policies required that students under 16 get parental consent to officially change their name and pronouns. The old policy said they could choose to be called what they liked at school unofficially. The new policy is unclear on unofficial preferences of names and pronouns for students under 16.
"If Terrance wants to be called by a nickname, it would be absurd to ask teachers to agree to use Terry but not Terri because of perceptions about the motivation," Lamrock said. "If there is a situation where somebody is choosing a name, and you suspect it might be for gender identity purposes, you have a whole different process and new barriers. That's textbook legal discrimination." Calling people the name they wish to be called is a simple courtesy, he added.
He questioned how teachers would deal with other personal issues that students might not want to share with a parent."What about straight students who might be dating or sexually active? What about if a student, whose parents are devout Muslim, decides she doesn't want to wear the hijab at school even though her parents wish she would? What if a child with an ethnic background decides they like a nickname that sounds more North American even though their parents wish they wouldn't for cultural reasons? What are the rules on all that?"
With regard to universal washrooms, he said schools cannot control what facilities will be available when students are on field trips. And he questioned why the government felt the need to remove wording from the section on sports that referred to participation consistent with their gender identity.
Lamrock said his office is assembling a team of lawyers to draft a memo for schools offering guidance on grey areas in the revised policy. "We're going to provide that so teachers and principals have something to rely on when making their decisions," he said.
https://www.iheartradio.ca/ctv-news-content/new-brunswick-child-advocate...
It appears the Progressive Conservative Blaine Higgs government lied about the number of complaints they received about Policy 713 and the protection it provided LGBTQ2S+ students. After more than two years in operation the policy change had generated little public debate until last month. Even though Kelly Lamrock, the province's child and youth advocate, asked for "the correspondence that triggered the review", the conservative government sent him three email complaints, not the hundred the minister claimed had been received. This sure looks its much more the conserative government's agenda than the public. Furthermore, it doesn't even look like it is the entire government's agenda as more than one quarter of the PC caucus boycotted the legislature in protest for half a legislative day until Premier Higgs threatened to call an election over it. Child and Youth Advocate Lamrock called the review of Policy 713 "broken and incoherent" and recommended it be paused, but the Higgs government went ahead with the implementation of the changes. Lamrock later said he was sure the policy changes could not survive a charter challenge.
New Brunswickers still don't know exactly how many complaints triggered the review of a policy meant to protect LGBTQ students and likely won't be able to find out before the review is finalized.
Education Minister Bill Hogan said the review of Policy 713 was triggered by "misinterpretations and concerns," and said the province had received hundreds of complaints about it. ...
The policy was implemented in 2020 and guarantees minimum protections to LGBTQ kids in school, including providing gender-neutral washrooms and respecting their pronouns in the classroom.
Premier Blaine Higgs confirmed this week the main issue with the policy is that it says if a child under 16 wants an informal name or pronoun change, teachers are required to get consent of the child before telling their parents. Parents still have to sign off on any formal changes and the policy does not change that.
Policy 713 triggered little public debate until two weeks ago. ...
On May 5, a small group of people holding placards protesting its implementation stood outside a school where teachers were holding professional development sessions. That's when the province confirmed to media that it had been reviewing the policy since mid-April. On Thursday, spokesperson Morgan Bell said the decision to review was "communicated" on April 21, but she did not answer a question about when the decision to review was made.
On Friday, when asked why he wouldn't share the details of the complaints or the complaints themselves, Hogan told Information Morning Fredericton, "It's not my place to release private communication with me."
The closest anyone has come to uncovering the substance of the complaints received by the government is Kelly Lamrock, the province's child and youth advocate.
He asked the province for the correspondence that triggered the review, and officials sent him copies of three emails. All three make unsubstantiated and sometimes homophobic claims. They also address curriculum concerns, which Policy 713 does not dictate, and none of them referred to the specific policy.
One, sent in December of 2022, said LGBTQ material should not be taught because it's against Christian beliefs.
Another email, from October 2022, said kids are being taught "Marxist" and "unscientific nonsense" about gender.
The third one, from April 4, 2023, referred to a long-debunked conspiracy theory about litter boxes in schools. The writer of the April email said, "I am not homophobic," and "humans are created male and female and nothing can change that."
Based on these emails, and other information given to him by the province, Lamrock said he recommended that the province pause the review and called the process "broken and incoherent. I am not sure any government decision could survive if receiving three complaints led to reconsideration," he wrote. ...
When Liberal Party Leader Susan Holt stood up in Question Period on Wednesday and asked about the discrepancy between "hundreds" of complaints and just three, Hogan said Lamrock "asked for a couple of samples … up to a certain point in March."
In fact, in his correspondence with the province, which was included in his report released earlier in the week, Lamrock asked for "any correspondence containing the misinterpretations or concerns" the department was citing as the basis for the review. ...
The CBC has filed a right-to-information request for the complaints. Response to a request takes 30 days and often requires an extension to 60 days and sometimes longer.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-lgbtq-rights-...
There are now three cabinet ministers who have resigned from New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs cabinet (there were two at the time of the writing of the article below) over Higgs forcing through is changes to weaken Policy 713 protections to LGBTQ2S+ students in elementary and high school, as well as his extreme top-down management style. Higgs says he may call an election over this.
New Brunswick Social Development Minister Dorothy Shephard, who was among several Progressive Conservative government members who disagreed with changes to the province’s LGBTQ policy in schools, resigned Thursday from cabinet.
Her two-sentence handwritten resignation letter said she could no longer remain in the cabinet of Premier Blaine Higgs. “I resign from cabinet, effective immediately,” she wrote.
Shephard told reporters that her resignation wasn’t only due to Policy 713, which establishes minimum standards for schools to ensure a safe, welcoming and inclusive environment for LGBTQ students. “I resigned because there is no process,” she said, wearing a rainbow flag on her left lapel. Cabinet and caucus are routinely dismissed. I have been struggling with this since October of 2021. I have had colleagues and friends encourage me to stay in the inner circle to do the best I can do. I feel I’ve done that. But I’ve run out of runway. There’s no accomplishing anything more in this cabinet. So I’m ready to leave.”
Higgs said he stood by the changes made to the policy and called Shephard’s resignation unfortunate. “I think it’s unfortunate that if someone says, ‘Well, I didn’t get the vote I wanted or the majority of caucus didn’t agree with me,’ that you walk away,” he said.
The legislature voted Thursday afternoon for the province’s child and youth advocate to consult with stakeholders about the changes made to Policy 713. The changes include requiring students under 16 to receive parental consent before they can change their names or pronouns at school. The new policy also removes language stating that students’ participation in sports will “be consistent with their gender identity.”
Eight members of the Tory caucus, including Shephard, sat out question period on June 8 in protest of the policy. Shephard said Thursday that she felt she was going to be removed from cabinet for speaking her mind. “I’ve always tried to be very honest, very frank,” she said. “It’s my job to be frank with the premier, to give my opinions, to give my counsel, my guidance, my input. That’s what I do. And that’s what I’ve done. I’m fine. I’m OK.”Shephard is the second minister to resign from Higgs’s cabinet. Dominic Cardy, who served as education minister, resigned in October citing the premier’s “wrecking-ball” leadership style.
Higgs said it could be argued that Shephard and Cardy quit because they didn’t get their way. “Maybe both were strong cabinet ministers. Both, maybe in (that) sense, were very convicted in their views.” Higgs reiterated that he is willing to call an election over changes made to Policy 713. “I guess if this situation drives an election to come forward, I will certainly be running in it,” he said. “We are addressing a lot of issues in the province. And they aren’t easy. This is probably one of the most sensitive ones. And it takes resolve, but it takes having balanced discussions and a balanced approach. And this is an approach of how do we engage parents. That’s what this is about.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/9771912/n-b-cabinet-minister-dorothy-shephard...
There are strong rumours of a "Possible snap election in N.B. swirling over LGBTQ2 policy backlash" that Higgs instigated when he reduced Policy 713 protections to LGBTQ2S students. This has already ready caused three cabinet ministers to resign in protest. There are rumours that Higgs may call an election as early as Monday to end his cabinet and policy problems, as well as avoid a leadership review that some PCs are calling for. If the election is called, it would be an election in which no party is ready in terms of candidate nominations etc.
Premier Blaine Higgs says he welcomes the prospect of a leadership review following a week of dissent within the New Brunswick Progressive Conservative Party, partly over changes to Policy 713. "I'm very confident in the results we've had for the province but if this issue has brought this to a head I'm equally confident I'm speaking for many parents that want a voice in their child's ... very formative years," he said.
Questions around the future of Higgs' leadership and a possible snap election continued to swirl as the legislature rose for the summer Friday. Former Hatfield-era PC cabinet minister and riding district association president Jean-Pierre Ouellett is openly calling for a review of Higgs' leadership, citing concerns over linguistic divisions in the province. "There is still time to hold your head high: not everything has been negative under your rule, but the time has come to recognize that for the good of the party, its members and the population, in general, the countdown has begun," he wrote in a Facebook post. "I call on caucus, members and riding presidents to take immediate action."
Former education minister-turned-independent MLA Dominic Cardy has been vocal for weeks about his views on the premier's leadership. Cardy, who is still a member of the party despite being turfed from caucus following his fiery resignation from cabinet, says it's time for the premier to step aside. "I hope my colleagues do the right thing and I hope we soon have a leadership change," he said Friday.
Oullett says he has formally written to the party executive to request a leadership review. According to the party's constitution, a review is initiated following an election defeat, or after 50 members write to the provincial executive to request one. Included in those 50 members must be 25 riding association presidents. Then, the provincial executive must vote two-thirds in favour of a review. Global News emailed all PC riding association presidents on Thursday. Only three replied, all of which said they had not asked for a review and did not intend to.
Meanwhile, Higgs has been facing challenges within his own caucus. Over the last week, eight members of the Tory caucus have spoken out against changes to Policy 713, which sets minimum standards to ensure an inclusive environment for LGBTQ2 students in the school system. On Thursday six of those MLAs voted with the opposition to ask the province's child and youth advocate to prepare a report on the impact of those changes, the main one being that it will no longer be mandatory for teachers to respect the chosen name or pronouns of students under 16 without parental permission. Liberal leader Susan Holt says that those government MLAs were even involved in drafting the final version of the motion, a brazen show of defiance to the premier.
Social development minister Dorothy Shephard resigned from cabinet following that vote, saying the premier's management style had become too much to bear. ...
Higgs has called the revolt "unfortunate" but says he's committed to moving forward and focusing on issues that affect all New Brunswickers. "The challenge we have as a party is are we going to implode within ourselves, or are we going to think of the bigger picture and the bigger prize," he said Friday. "We've never had our province perform better than it has in the last three years so we cannot lose that momentum and so you have to look at the bigger picture. It doesn't mean you don't talk about tough issues, but it means you find solutions. It doesn't mean you walk away or vote against your government, it means as a team you find solutions."
Aboriginal affairs minister Arlene Dunn is part of the eight rebellious caucus members. She was away in Ottawa for Thursday's vote, but says she would have supported the opposition motion had she been in the house. Dunn didn't answer directly when asked if she still supports the premier, but said when it comes to issues like Policy 713 the party needs to listen to experts. "I have full confidence in our party and I think that we need to really get back on track with respect to what matters to New Brunswickers," she said. "I don't think that the PC party does well on issues like these and I think that we need to steer clear of those discussions and opening up those things. I think there are experts that can really guide us on those issues and I think that's where we need to focus."
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/possible-snap-election-in-nb-swirli...
New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs continues to defend " revised Policy 713 Friday, saying he is standing up for parents and if doing so requires a leadership review then so be it", but is vague over whether he will call an election over it. "If this issue has brought this to a head, I'm equally confident that I'm speaking for many parents who want a voice," he said. "If that is necessitating a leadership review I guess it'll be what it'll be." The results of such an election and/or leadership review could determine to what extent other Conservatives push an anti-LGBTQ@S+ agenda.
New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs said Friday he is open to a party vote on his leadership, but remained vague on whether he'll call an early provincial election.
Higgs is facing a rising wave of dissent from his caucus over his leadership style and his government's changes to the province's policy on sexual orientation in schools. On Thursday, Dorothy Shephard quit as social development minister, and last week, eight Progressive Conservative dissidents -- including Shephard and five other ministers -- sat out question period in protest.
Asked what the odds were of the province heading into an early election, Higgs told reporters, "I don't play the odds, actually. I don't. So, I'm not going to delve into an election philosophy." His majority government's mandate ends in October 2024.
The controversy erupted June 8 after Education Minister Bill Hogan introduced changes to Policy 713, which sets out standards for schools to ensure welcoming and inclusive environments for LGBTQ students. Among the changes is a new requirement for teachers to obtain parental consent before they use the preferred pronouns and names of transgender and nonbinary students under the age of 16.
LGBTQ advocates have said the policy violates the rights of children, but Higgs has said the changes ensure parents are kept informed about issues affecting their kids.
On Thursday, Shephard resigned from Higgs' cabinet and voted with the Opposition on a motion calling on the province's youth and child advocate to review the changes to the LGBTQ policy. Five other members of Higgs' party voted with Shephard: ministers Jeff Carr, Daniel Allain and Trevor Holder, and backbenchers Ross Wetmore and Andrea Anderson-Mason. The Tory rebels caused the motion to pass 26-20.
Higgs defended the revised Policy 713 Friday, saying he is standing up for parents and if doing so requires a leadership review then so be it.
"If this issue has brought this to a head, I'm equally confident that I'm speaking for many parents who want a voice," he said. "If that is necessitating a leadership review I guess it'll be what it'll be."
But Shephard said it wasn't just changes made to Policy 713 that made her quit.
"I resigned because there is no process. Cabinet and caucus are routinely dismissed," she told reporters Thursday. "I have been struggling with this since October of 2021."
J.P. Lewis, political science professor at the University of New Brunswick, Saint John, said Higgs' leadership style is under the microscope now that Shephard has left cabinet.
But she is the second minister to quit his cabinet in protest since October, when Dominic Cardy resigned as education minister and wrote a letter calling out the premier's "wrecking-ball" leadership style.
While Shephard did not send such a letter, Lewis said her comments with reporters "fitted with Cardy's viewpoint." Her public resignation, he said, which she made on the floor of the legislature, was "quite remarkable."
"It was easy to kind of see Cardy's resignation as possibly a one-off he had mentioned that others would agree with him, but it was a matter of waiting to see if there's other folks in cabinet who think that the way that Higgs leads is problematic," he said.
"The Policy 713 issue really brought everything to a head. It was a bit surprising, to be honest."
Lewis said it's unclear whether more members of Higgs' government will resign.
"I think right now, we're in a position where are there other shoes that drop, other dominoes to fall? Because there is the possibility that this is it. This was the small revolt Higgs experienced. Even though it's rare, it happens."
Higgs might be led to call an election if more members of his party resign, or if he wants to solidify his position as head of the province's Progressive Conservatives.
"We're definitely closer to an early election than we would have been a couple of weeks ago, that's for sure," Lewis said.
https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/new-brunswick-premier-open-to-leadership-tes...
More than half (26 out of 49) the New Brunswick Progressive Conservative riding presidents have signed letters calling for a leadership review for Premier Blaine Higgs. His changes to the Policy 713 that weakened protections for LGBTQ2S+ elementary and secondary students was the triggering issue that catalyzed this response, although Higgs geneerally autocratic style of running the government and the party was very important in triggering this response. There are constitutional provisions outlined in the article below on whether and how a leadership review would occur. Even if he survives until the next election by avoiding a leadership review or by winning a leadership review, I don't think this augers well for his election chances. While there are MLAs who support his views on LGBTQ2S+ issues, divided parties rarely win elections.
There are growing calls from within the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick (PCNB) for a review of their own leader.
One regional vice-president said at least 26 of 49 riding association presidents have signed letters calling for a leadership review.
In an interview on Wednesday, John Williston said he believes that number will increase in the coming days.
“This is not a happy time in our party,” said Williston, who is vice president of the Westmorland Albert region.
“We’re in a situation now where about one-third of the provincial caucus is basically in open revolt from the leadership of the premier.”
Eight Tory MLAs sat out of the legislature when controversial changes to Policy 713, the province’s LGBTQ+ policy in schools, were brought forward.
Those changes were the final straw for MLA Dorothy Shephard, who resigned from Premier Blaine Higgs’ cabinet one week later.
“With all due respect, I feel that caucus feels they’re not heard by the premier, and I feel that the riding associations feel that they’re not heard as well,” said Williston.
“That top-down leadership style can only exist for so long in a political movement and I think people are looking for a new style of leadership and a new chapter.”
Under the PCNB constitution, a leadership review can be added to the party’s next provincial council meeting agenda if more than 50 members, including at least 20 riding association members, make a request in writing.
A two-thirds majority vote of the provincial council at that meeting would trigger a leadership review within the next three months — a number Williston believes is “very attainable.”
“My hope is the premier will realize the severity of the situation and, upon review, decide to do the right thing which would be to resign without going through the whole process of a leadership review,” said Williston.
https://www.country94.ca/2023/06/22/pc-riding-association-presidents-cal..
Higgs is in trouble within the New Brunswick Progressive Conservative because of his anti-LGBTQ changes that triggered 26 of 49 PC riding presidents to write signed letters asking for a leadership review. But it goes deeper than than. He was originally a Liberal who quit the party to become a member of the very right wing provincial Confederation of Regions (COR)Party over bilingualism and ran for its leadership before joining the PCs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blaine_Higgs). So he is an outsider inside the PC party who doesn't have the lifetime party allies that is often typical of party leaders and is further to the right than many Maritime PCs. More important Higgs hired Derek Robinson the same month Higgs began his review of Policy 713 on school protections for LGBTQ students. Robinson was "a key player in western Canadian conservative groups, and is advising the premier through his communications firm MASH Strategy" (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/blaine-higgs-attack-susan-h...). Robinson led the strategy to defeat long-time and sole Liberal Saskatchewan MP by repeatedly linking him to Trudeau in advertising. He brought that strategy to New Brunswick, attacking the Liberal leader, Susan Holt by linking her to Trudeau on the LGBTQ2S+ issue. " On Saturday night, Higgs linked Trudeau's stand on LGBTQ issues to Holt — even though Holt herself is keeping her distance from the prime minister. "Susan Holt & Justin Trudeau don't believe parents need be involved in such critical discussions as gender identity, even in children as young as 4," Higgs said in two tweets posted Saturday night at 6:53 p.m. and again at 9:18 p.m."
(https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/blaine-higgs-attack-susan-h...)
The problem is what works on in Saskatchewan and Alberta doesn't necessarily work elsewhere, especially when it was the PCs who were the ones who brought in the original Policy 713. Furthermore, it had worked well for two years with only three complaints from parents that Higgs brought forward to argue it needed to change, so it looked like the manufacturing of an issue that had some resonance on the prairies and a lot of resonance for Republicans in the US, but seemed was so far a non-issue in New Brunswick.
On CBC Newsworld Saschi Kurl of the Angus Reid Institute, a polling firm, warned that American style culture wars played for political gains have largely failed in Canada, but if they do get a large following here, it will be very difficult to ever get them out of our politics.
Furthermore, culture war policies that look like sure fire winners in one region may be disastrous in another region for a political party. I wonder if Poilievre, unlike Higgs, have figured that out yet.
Yet another New Brunswick cabinet minister, Trevor Hicks, a thirty year MLA and three Conservative government cabinet minister, has resigned from the Higgs government, triggered by the Higgs changes to the reduction is Policy 713 safety measures for public school LGBTQ children and his authoritarian style. This is in addition to the 26 of 49 New Brunswick provincial riding presidents who have written signed letters asking for a leadership review over this.
Another New Brunswick cabinet minister has resigned amid calls for a leadership review of Premier Blaine Higgs. Trevor Holder, who represents the district of Portland-Simonds and was the minister of Post-Secondary Education, Training, and Labour, said in a letter Friday that he needs to "do some significant soul searching after a 24-year legislative career."
"I have served in the Cabinet of 3 separate Premiers. I have always fought for my constituents within a party and caucus structure. My respect for that process has led to better results for my community and my province -- until recently," the letter also said.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/another-nb-cabinet-minister-resigns...
Even many of the Progressive Conservatives in New Brunswick want Higgs to resign after his changes to Policy 713 reducted safety for LGBTQ2S+ elementary and secondary students. His changes to Policy 713 have become the "tipping point" in demands for his resignation. In addition to cabinet minister resignations and 26 of 49 New Brunswick provincial riding presidents who have written signed letters asking for a leadership review over this, and another four former New Brunswick Conservative riding association presidents are demanding a leadership review.
Troubles for New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs worsened Friday as Labour Minister Trevor Holder resigned from cabinet, and four past Progressive Conservative party presidents joined the chorus calling on the premier to step down. In other words, if he won't resign they want a leadership review to get rid of him.
In the letter Friday, Holder said Higgs lacks empathy and cannot work collaboratively with caucus members. "Under the leadership of Premier Higgs, caucus has been less about consensus and more about him getting his own way," Holder said in the letter. Holder, whose portfolios also included post-secondary education and training, is the second minister to resign this month citing Higgs’s leadership style. Dorothy Shephard resigned June 15 as social development minister.
Shephard has accused the premier of not trusting his cabinet and criticized him for the decision to change the sexual orientation policy in schools, known as Policy 713. The main change to the policy is that it will no longer be mandatory for teachers to use the preferred pronouns or names of transgender or nonbinary students under the age of 16, starting July 1.
On Thursday, Higgs repeated in a statement that the vast majority of caucus had supported the changes and added "it is extremely unfortunate that all of this gets lost with the strategically planned political drama that is now unfolding."…
Also Friday, a two-page letter from ex-party presidents Claude Williams, Jason Stephen, Lester Young and Brian Harquail, obtained by The Canadian Press, says that despite the premier's achievements there have been significant missteps that stem from Higgs's top-down, authoritarian style of leadership. They say Higgs ignores input from his cabinet, caucus, the party and civil servants.
"The members of the party have never had a say in the direction of the party under his leadership. That is not how democracy works," the four past presidents say in the letter.
"Instead, the premier depends on an echo chamber of confidantes who do not seem to understand the nuances of New Brunswick society and the delicate balance required to govern this province effectively."
Changes made to the province's policy on sexual orientation in schools, they said, was just the tipping point in a long line of disrespect Higgs has shown to the party.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/brunswick-premier-loses-second-cabinet-1613354...
Blaine Higgs had to reshuffle his New Brunswick cabinet today, dropping two more ministers in addition to two others who had already resigned over his changes to Policy 713 that protected LGBTQ2S+ students in school. This follows 26 of 49 Conservative riding presidents, as well as four former Conservative riding presidents, wrote signed letters demanding a leadership review over this issue and Higgs my-way-or-the-highway style. Nevertheless, Pierre jumped right into the middle of this by telling Trudeau to stay out of provincial politics, despite his numerous examples of jumping into provincial and local politics, such as saying he would end gatekeepers in other levels of government blocking housing and pipeline construction. Once again Pierre is bringing Alberta/Saskatchewan popular approaches eastward to regions that don't think the same way. He just found out in the byelections last week, that his ultra-right wing approach isn't always accepted favourably everywhere.
Quote:
'Let parents raise kids,' he said while speaking on controversial changes to policy on LGBTQ students
Pierre Poilievre said the prime minister has no business weighing in on New Brunswick's Policy 713 on LGBTQ students, even as the federal Conservative leader called on Justin Trudeau to let parents raise kids.
The policy was designed to protect LGBTQ students in schools. But earlier this year, New Brunswick's Progressive Conservative government made changes that, in part, will no longer require teachers to use the chosen names and pronouns of transgender or non-binary students under 16 without parental consent (new window).
At a Tuesday event in Moncton critiquing carbon taxation and the cost of living, Poilievre was asked whether he stands with New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs on the changes to Policy 713. He called it provincial policy.
I know that Justin Trudeau has butted into that. The prime minister has no business in decisions that should rest with provinces and parents, he said.
So my message to Justin Trudeau is, 'Butt out and let provinces run schools and let parents raise kids.' ...
The changes on Policy 713 prompted backlash from within Higgs's own cabinet, including numerous resignations by ministers who objected to his leadership style. On Tuesday morning, Higgs shuffled his cabinet to replace two ministers who voted against him on a resolution calling for more consultations on the school gender-identity policy (new window).Trudeau weighed in on the policy at a Pride event in Toronto about three weeks ago (new window), saying right now, trans kids in New Brunswick are being told they don't have the right to be their true selves, that they need to ask permission.
Trans kids need to feel safe, not targeted by politicians, said Trudeau. We need to stand against this.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/1991636/poilievre-tells-trudeau-...
Ironically, after Blaine Higgs warned that there was too much power in the Premier's office, his critics now agree that he is exerting too much power, with it all coming to a head over his changes to policy 713 that reduced protections for LGBTQ2S+ students.
Blaine Higgs began his term as New Brunswick premier promising not to run his government from the top down like he accused his predecessor, Brian Gallant, of doing. "Today there is too much power in the premier's office," he wrote in a personal letter to voters during the 2018 election campaign. "The Premier's office ends up making all the decisions. The voices of citizens and elected officials are not allowed to be as strong as they could and should be. I want to be the Premier who says 'No we don't do it that way anymore.'"
Five years later, with his government roiled by a series of cabinet resignations and firings and mounting accusations of his own tendency toward centralized rule, Higgs still maintains he is a leader who values different points of view and is open to learning from those who do not agree with him. "I'm never happy when someone quits and walks away because the way we find balance — and the way we respect each other's views in doing so — is how we improve democracy," Higgs told CBC News last week.
But a growing list of government MLAs and ex-ministers claim that is not the Blaine Higgs they know. Three weeks ago, former social development minister Dorothy Shephard resigned from cabinet in opposition to the government changing Policy 713, which provides guidance for the treatment of LGBTQ students in schools. In interviews about the decision, Shephard expressed specific concerns about the policy change but also a long simmering frustration about Higgs making decisions on his own and bypassing ministers by running departments directly from his office. "There's no conversation with the premier's office. It's all a direct line from the premier's office to the deputy minister," she said.
The criticism was nearly identical to one made nine months ago by former education minister Dominic Cardy in his resignation letter from cabinet. Cardy claimed major government policy shifts, such as the ill-fated attempt to overhaul French immersion in schools or to disband elected representation on health boards, were increasingly personal decisions being made directly by the premier. "Your order to abolish the democratically elected Regional Health Authorities without informing Cabinet represents a steady consolidation of power in your own hands," Cardy wrote in the letter.
The New Brunswick Progressive Conservative party had told voters in 2018 that with Higgs as leader it would delegate power and "move decisions closer to communities," but Cardy described the opposite happening, especially, he said, after the party went from a minority to a majority government in 2020. At the time, Cardy's letter was viewed as incendiary and disloyal. It triggered his expulsion from the government caucus and forced him to sit in the legislature as an independent. But in the last month, a number of Cardy's former cabinet colleagues have been making nearly identical points as they either resigned, like he did, or were fired by Higgs. ...
Trevor Holder, the most senior government MLA in the New Brunswick legislature, gave up his cabinet position two weeks ago and, like Cardy and Shephard before him, cited a concentration of power and decision-making in the hands of one. "Under the leadership of Premier Higgs caucus has been less about consensus and more about him getting his own way," wrote Holder in an open letter explaining his departure. ,,,
Lori Turnbull, the director of the school of public administration at Dalhousie University, told Information Morning on Monday that it is not unusual for premiers or prime ministers in parliamentary systems to be accused of wielding too much power.
But she said what is happening in New Brunswick appears to be something beyond those standard complaints. "This is not just a Blaine Higgs thing," said Turnbull. "However, it seems like this particular situation has gone too far for some of the people around him." Higgs no longer references his 2018 commitment to voters to curtail unilateral decision-making in the premier's office, but he does acknowledge some blame for internal problems in his government and said he "has to be part of the solution." However, last week he also said he finds some of the complaints about him "a bit over dramatic" and appeared to misstate or misunderstand that the concerns ex-ministers express about him cover multiple policies that stretch back several months.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/higgs-warned-of-too-much-power-in-...
Paladin1 wrote:
jerrym wrote:
June is Pride month. That is why there has been a drop off in coverage in July. However CBC News Network covered a Pride parade in PEI today. A similar drop-off occurs after Black History month in February.
Paladin1 wrote:
according to the news in June, it seemed like we were heading towards a scene from The Purge. Steps away from repealing gay rights, and LGBTQ attacks were allegedly through the roof.
Then July hits and practically crickets.
Are gay rights still severely at risk and LGBTQ being attacked all over the place and the media just isn't reporting it?
Just because you don't hear a tree fall in the woods, doesn't mean it did not fall. Just because there has been less coverage of LGBTQ2S+ issues doesn't mean they are not facing discrimination and attacks.
In fact, New Brunswick's child and youth advocate Kelly Lamrock just released report concludes that changes to Policy 713 made by the Blaine Higgs government " violate the Charter rights of children and the Human Rights Act ". Lamrack notes " "The parent has a right to teach their values to a child," Lamrock told reporters after he released his report. "The parent does not have the right to a state apparatus to force the child to live by their values."
Lamrack said "District education councils can pass their own policies based on Lamrock's recommendations, and Lamrock said those policies would supersede the provincial one" because Higg's policies violate the Charter of Rights. Higgs disagrees.
Quote:
Changes to New Brunswick's policy on sexual orientation and gender identity in schools violate the Charter rights of children, the province's child and youth advocate said Tuesday.
Kelly Lamrock released his findings in a report of nearly 100 pages, concluding that the Education Department did not seriously consider the legal consequences of its changes to Policy 713.
New Brunswick's government made several revisions in June, one of which requires children under 16 to have parental consent before they can officially change their preferred first names or pronouns at school.
Lamrock said forcing any non-binary and transgender students to use a name they don't identify with "is a violation of their protected rights under the Human Rights Act and the Charter of Rights and Freedoms."
Parents have an important role to play in their child's development, but the government's changes were vague and created confusion, he said. "The parent has a right to teach their values to a child," Lamrock told reporters after he released his report. "The parent does not have the right to a state apparatus to force the child to live by their values."Premier Blaine Higgs has defended the changes to the LGBTQ school policy, arguing that parents have the right to know whether their children are questioning their gender identity. But Higgs's government has faced strong backlash, including within his own cabinet and from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Dissenting members of Higgs's Progressive Conservatives voted with the opposition in mid-June to pass a motion asking Lamrock's office to review the changes to Policy 713.
The result was Tuesday's report, in which Lamrock says the policy changes effectively veto a child's decision on what pronouns or names they can use in school until they are 16. The revisions, he says, have left the Department of Education, teachers and administrators legally vulnerable.
Higgs did not return a response for a comment on Tuesday. Education Minister Bill Hogan, meanwhile, said he had no immediate comment. "I will be taking the necessary time to review Mr. Lamrock's report and will provide further comments only after my review is complete," he said in an emailed statement.
In his report, Lamrock says that it's not bigoted for a parent to want to know about major decisions taken by their children, including name or pronoun changes. "Equally so, it is not extreme to want children to have privacy and autonomy when they are old and mature enough to exercise it."
Lamrock says that over the past two months he reviewed more than 400 submissions from parents, students, teachers and government officials. He proposes 24 recommendations to revise the policy so that it is in line with the Charter and other laws, including that the government "restore language explicitly restricting school personnel from outing students without their permission."
Higgs's government revised the policy so that only students 16 and older could have their preferred names or pronouns changed on official school records, such as class lists. Lamrock says that change should remain.
However, Lamrock says that younger students should be able to choose how they are informally addressed by teachers and school staff. School principals, he adds, should be responsible for developing plans in consultation with psychologists and teachers for primary school students who want to informally change their names and pronouns.
"Any concept of parental rights which starts and stops with asserting that parents should have unlimited control over the child is an analysis too limited to stand," the report says. "In fact, much of what we call 'parental rights' stem from the child's rights. The parent does not have an absolute right to control a child."
He also recommends that Policy 713 be restored with language protecting students' right to participate in activities consistent with their gender identity.
Liberal Leader Susan Holt said Tuesday her party would like to see the government commit to immediately adopting the recommendations. "We believe that teachers and parents and students deserve clarity prior to starting school in September, and so we are looking for an urgent response from the government," she said.
David Coon, Green leader, said it was helpful to have a legal framework for the recommendations made by Lamrock. "It provides tremendously clear guidance," he said.
Gail Costello, with New Brunswick LGBTQ advocacy group Pride in Education, also applauded the report. "I think it's time for the premier to take a step back, trust his own employees, trust Kelly Lamrock, trust the professionals, and this is a chance to back away from this and do what's best for kids," she said.
https://www.iheartradio.ca/ctv-news-content/n-b-child-advocate-says-lgbt...
Furthermore, a graduating Grade 12 student worries about what will happen to LGBTQ2S+ students still in school if Higgs' PC government changes are implemented this fall.
Alex Harris, a Riverview student going into Grade 12, said hearing the advocate's words was a relief because they emphasized students' rights to privacy and equality — something he did not hear from the government.
"Kids deserve privacy and kids deserve rights the same as everybody else," Harris said. "Even if what a kid wants to do isn't quite what their parents want them to do."
However Harris said he's worried about what the school year will look like if the province does not undo its changes.
"My friends are going to get hurt. My friends' home lives are gonna get harder and my life is gonna get harder too. Because now the government has said that it is OK to disrespect people … like me," he said.
District education councils can pass their own policies based on Lamrock's recommendations, and Lamrock said those policies would supersede the provincial one. Higgs said Tuesday that's not correct. "That would be circumventing the laws," Higgs said.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/nb-government-needs-to-act-urgentl...
The PCs at 36% and the Liberals at 38% are in a statisical tie for the lead in voter support in New Brunswick, although dissatisfaction with Premier Higgs at 59% remains high and more people prefer Liberal leader Holt at 28% than Higgs at 23% as Premier.
While the majority of New Brunswickers continue to express dissatisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by Premier Blaine Higgs, dissatisfaction has declined this quarter compared to last, according to the latest survey by Narrative Research. Six in ten (59%, down from 64% in May 2023) are currently dissatisfied, while four in ten (37%, up from 31%) express some level of satisfaction with the government’s overall performance. Dissatisfaction is highest in Northern NB and lowest in Southern NB, albeit Southern NB residents are nearly evenly-split between being satisfied or dissatisfied.
The PCs and Liberals continue to garner similar levels of support from decided voters. Four in ten would vote for either the Liberals (38%, compared with 34% in May 2023) or the PCs (36%, compared with 34%) if an election were held today. Two in ten would vote for the Green Party (16%, compared with 19%), while one in ten would vote for the NDP (8%, compared with 10%). The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick has backing from 1% of decided voters (compared with 2%). Liberals have the highest support in Moncton and its surrounding area, followed closely by Northern NB, while the PCs continue to have the highest support in Southern NB.
Susan Holt of the Liberal Party remains in the lead as most preferred for Premier. Susan Holt is preferred by close to three in ten (28%, compared with 25% in May 2023), while one-quarter voice preference for Blaine Higgs (23%, up from 18%). One in ten prefer David Coon of the Green Party (13%, compared with 17%), while only a small minority prefer either Alex White, interim leader of the NDP (6%, compared with 5%) or Rick DeSaulniers of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick (3%, compared with 5%).
https://narrativeresearch.ca/nb-the-pcs-and-liberals-are-neck-and-neck-i...
It is increasingly looking like Premier Higgs could call an election over his trans policy that has split the PC party this summer. "New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs is dangling the prospect that he could send the province to the polls this fall, a year ahead of schedule, citing the risk of "instability and stagnation" if the legislature resumes sitting next month." When six PC MLAs voted with the opposition this summer in calling for an external review of the 713 policy to requiring students under 16 who are exploring their gender identity must get their parents' consent before teachers can use their preferred first names or pronouns at school. Many Conservatives are also upset with Higgs authoritarian style. A total of 26 PC riding president's called for a review of Higgs leadership in June but that was shelved in August.
New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs is dangling the prospect that he could send the province to the polls this fall, a year ahead of schedule, citing the risk of "instability and stagnation" if the legislature resumes sitting next month.
Higgs said in an emailed statement Wednesday that he is worried "political drama" could overshadow elected officials' job of helping New Brunswickers when the new session of the legislature opens Oct. 17.
"I know there is a lot of speculation about a possible fall election," he said in the statement. "As with all of the decisions I make as premier, my focus is always on doing what is best for New Brunswick."
The Progressive Conservative government has faced internal revolt in recent months, following changes made to the province's policy on sexual orientation and gender identity in schools. The main thrust of the changes to Policy 713 is that students under 16 who are exploring their gender identity must get their parents' consent before teachers can use their preferred first names or pronouns at school.
Two ministers — Trevor Holder who held the labour portfolio and Dorothy Shephard in social development — quit earlier this year, citing Higgs' leadership style and the changes made to the gender identity policy.
After six Tory members of the legislative assembly voted with the Opposition in June to call for an external review of the policy, the premier dropped dissenters from cabinet and named five new ministers.
But Higgs' troubles began before he introduced changes to the policy in June. Dominic Cardy, who was education minister, resigned from cabinet last October, calling out the premier's leadership style and values. The premier has also faced criticism on his now-stalled French immersion policy reform, where the government said their goal was that all graduates in the anglophone sector have at least a “conversational level” of the language. The proposed reform was dropped.
Some Progressive Conservative party members have called for Higgs to step down, but after months of speculation they failed to trigger a leadership review and dropped the call in August.
Looking ahead to the next session of the legislature, Higgs said in his statement: "The question we face is will the focus be on delivering results for New Brunswickers or will it be 12 months of political drama causing instability and stagnation in government?"
J.P. Lewis, political science professor at the University of New Brunswick, Saint John, said speculation about an election has been swirling for months, but there might be more reason now for Higgs to want to strengthen his position and call an election ahead of the October 2024 date specified in provincial law.
Higgs was facing pressure from the outside where the Progressive Conservatives were down in the polls earlier this year and from the inside with turmoil in the cabinet and the party, he said.
"He might look at all this pressure … (and say) if this is real, then we're going to test it at the polls," Lewis said. "He can look at it and say, 'The way for me to strengthen myself within the party is to lead the party to another majority government. I'm not going to wait around. I'm going to do it now.'"
While the Tories remain strong in the southern part of the province, he said the Liberals are formidable in the north. But an election this year would be nothing like 2020, when Higgs was riding high on his handling of the pandemic.
"This is completely different. There's different issues that are top of mind," Lewis said. He listed the housing crisis, a shortage of health-care staff and the soaring cost of living as issues likely to be prominent in a campaign.
"Then you have something like Policy 713. I don't think anyone would have predicted that would be what would take up most of the political energy in the province for the last two or three months. But it has," Lewis said.
Green Leader David Coon said it is rich that Higgs is saying he can't function in the midst of so much political drama, "when he's the one who was the instigator of all the political drama."
Liberal Leader Susan Holt said Higgs should come clean about whether the election will be this this fall or next.
"I think one of the reasons the premier is hesitant to return to the legislature is, as he said, he's lost the leadership of his team," she said. "He no longer has the ability to lead his caucus and cabinet and so he's considering an election to try and fix that."
On Wednesday evening, as the premier arrived at a $500-a-head fundraiser in Fredericton billed as "An Evening With Premier Higgs," a small group of LGBTQ+ people gathered on the sidewalk holding signs protesting Policy 713. Higgs had a 15-minute conversation with the group, answering questions and defending his government's position.
https://www.richmond-news.com/new-brunswick-news/election-speculation-in...