Election Polls Ontario

24 posts / 0 new

Last post

Sun, 2023-09-17 15:57

jerrym

Angus Reid Poll September 6, 2023

PCs 38%

NDP 28%

Liberals 22%

Greens 7%

Others 5%

As Ontario’s government prepares to further review the Greenbelt, including the lands at the centre of the ongoing controversy, Premier Doug Ford’s personal approval continues to sink.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that amid ongoing criticism, fewer than three-in-ten (28%) approve of Ford. Two-thirds (67%) of constituents, including one-in-three (36%) who voted for his party just last year, hold negative opinions of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leader.

Much of this criticism is propelled by a widespread sense that land swaps in the Greenbelt were done iniquitously, offering preferential treatment to certain developers, rather than utilizing fair process. Ford, himself, has resistedmuch of this characterisation, but accepted that better process is needed, stating this week that his government will re-evaluate the land swaps themselves, and review how it handles these deals going forward.

While Ontarians await the results of this, Ford’s rivals are attempting to capitalize and break through in the province, something both the Ontario Liberals and Ontario New Democrats have been unable to do over the past five years.

Among new Liberal leadership candidates, only Bonnie Crombie is recognizable to more than 30 per cent of those who say they would consider the Liberals in a future provincial election.

With the Liberal Party in flux, and the Ontario NDP failing thus far to resonate with many voters under opposition leader Marit Stiles, Ford’s Progressive Conservatives appear to be weathering the proverbial storm. Indeed, two-in-five (38%) Ontario residents say they would vote for the PCPO if an election were held, a ten-point lead over the opposition NDP (28%) and a 16-point advantage over the Liberals (22%).

More Key Findings:

Despite its vote intention lead, four-in-five Ontarians feel the government has performed poorly on inflation (81%), health care (77%), and housing affordability (85%), the top three issues chosen by residents in the province.

Seven-in-ten (71%) believe the Greenbelt was protected for a reason and there should be no development on its lands. One-in-five (22%) believe the province’s affordable housing crisis requires considering development on the protected lands.

Ford’s approval falls to 63 per cent among 2022 PCPO voters, a 17-point drop compared to data recorded in June.

https://angusreid.org/doug-ford-pc-greenbelt-steve-clark-developers/

Sun, 2023-09-17 20:14

jerrym

Below is a more detailed analysis from the Angus Reid September 6, 2023 poll and the effect of the Great Greenbelt Giveaway on Ford's popularity and voter support, as well as the important issues on voters' minds.

Part One: Greenbelt Grief

The Greenbelt scandal in Ontario is far from settled, despite a pair of resignations from the housing ministry, including Housing Minister Steve Clark. To recap: the government announced last year in November it would remove 7,400 acres from the Greenbelt, an area of protected farmland and environmentally-sensitive areas around Toronto. The government did this to allow developers to build additional homes to help address the province’s housing crisis but said it would replace the land lost elsewhere along the Greenbelt. Shortly after the announcement, CBC reportedprominent developers would stand to benefit from the removals, including developers who purchased land just months before they became unprotected.

Fast forward to this year. A report by Ontario’s auditor general found that certain developers with connections to the housing ministry received preferential treatment in the process to open up development in the Greenbelt. Those developers could see the value of the land they own increased by $8.3 billion, according to the AG’s report. Shortly after, a report released by the province’s integrity commissioner described the Greenbelt land swap as a “rushed and flawed process” with a “lack of oversight.” The integrity commissioner’s report heavily criticized Clark and his role in the process.

Ford has denied his government gave “preferential treatment” to developers in the Greenbelt land swap, while deflecting questions about his own role in the decisions. The premier said development would go ahead, but that the government would “re-evaluate” all Greenbelt lands and development applications.

Widespread awareness of the issue

Three-quarters (76%) of Ontarians say they’ve had discussions about the Greenbelt saga with friends and family. Few (7%) say they haven’t heard anything about the scandal:

*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution

Seven-in-ten say leave the land alone

Those who believe the Greenbelt should be opened for development are in the minority. One-in-five (22%) believe Ontario needs to look at everything to help addressing the housing affordability crisis, including developing in the Greenbelt. Two-in-five (44%) of those who voted for Ford and PCs in the 2022 election hold this view.

However, more past PC voters (52%), in fact a slight majority, believe the Greenbelt shouldn’t be open to any development. They join nearly all NDP (91%) and Liberal (89%) supporters who say this:

Overwhelming majority feel preferential treatment was given

Even prior to the reports by the AG and integrity commissioner, Ford and his government denied they tipped off developers of the pending land swaps. “No one had preferential treatment,” Ford insisted days after the auditor general report.

Ontarians are much more inclined to believe the findings of the AG’s report than Ford. Three-quarters (72%), including a majority of past PC voters (57%), believe certain developers received “preferential treatment” from the government in the Greenbelt affair:

Part Two: Political fallout

Ford’s approval drops to lowest recorded level

The Greenbelt scandal has dragged approval of Ford to its lowest level since he was first elected at the head of a majority government in 2018. Fewer than three-in-ten (28%) of Ontarians approve of their premier:

Ford has enjoyed consistently high approval from past PC voters over the past 18 months. However, recent developments in the Greenbelt issue appear to have soured a significant segment of his own base:

Majority feel Ford should resign

As noted above, Clark resigned as housing minister over the Labour Day long weekend. Prior to that resignation, the Angus Reid Institute canvassed Ontarians on whether they felt Clark, Ford, both or neither should resign in the wake of the Greenbelt controversy.

One-quarter (25%) of past PC voters believe Ford should resign over the controversy, but more (30%) believe no one should have to step down over the Greenbelt land swap:

Stiles, Liberal leadership hopefuls not gaining traction

Ontario’s opposition parties have hammered the PC government over the Greenbelt, calling for more accountability and investigations into the land swap process. However, the increased media exposure and attention on the Greenbelt saga have not resulted in significant gains in recognition for opposition and NDP leader Marit Stiles or the candidates in the Liberal leadership race. Two-in-five (43%) Ontarians say they don’t have an opinion of Stiles, including 37 per cent of those who voted NDP in 2022 (see detailed tables).

Meanwhile, the Ontario Liberal Party is amid a leadership race to replace Steven Del Duca, who resigned after a dismal performance in the 2022 election. Former Liberal MP and current mayor of Mississauga Bonnie Crombie is the most recognized candidate among Ontarians who would consider voting Liberal in an upcoming election. Two-thirds (63%) say they’ve heard of Crombie. The other candidates – Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Ted Hsu, Yasir Naqvi, and Adil Shamji – are unknown to more than seven-in-ten potential Liberal voters (see detailed tables).

This recognition has apparently given Crombie an early advantage in the race. Three-in-ten (31%) potential Liberal voters say the Mississauga mayor is the most appealing candidate for party leadership. Crombie is also the preferred candidate of 38 per cent past Liberal voters (see detailed tables). Voting starts at the end of November with the results announced on Dec. 2.

PCPO support unchanged, significant lead remains

Despite the intense criticism and political fallout, Ford’s PCPO continue to hold a double-digit lead in vote intention. Two-in-five (38%) Ontarians say they would support his party if an election were held, while half of Ontarians are split between the ONDP (28%) and the Ontario Liberals (22%).

The Conservatives garner significant support from men and those over the age of 55, allowing them to maintain this advantageous position, just over a year after the last provincial election. Young people show an affinity for the NDP, while women are divided in large part between all three of the major provincial parties:

The PC hold an advantage in most regions of the country. The exception to this is in the 416 area code of Toronto, where the NDP are preferred by approaching half (46%):

Part Three: Top issues and performance

While the Greenbelt has received most of the attention in recent weeks, the top issues facing Ontario residents – as with the rest of the country – remain centred on personal finances and health care. Two-thirds of Ontarians say the cost of living and inflation are their primary concern, while fully half (54%) choose health care. Housing affordability, cited by the provincial government as the cause for Greenbelt land deals, is chosen by two-in-five (40%):

Little solace for government as performance panned

Perceived handling of these core issues is likely compounding the challenges the PCPO are currently facing. In addition to criticism about the Greenbelt, the Ford government is seen as doing a poor job on these top provincial priorities as well. One-in-ten say the government is doing a good job in dealing with housing affordability (11%), and the cost of living (12%), while one-in-five offer praise of health care management (20%):

https://angusreid.org/doug-ford-pc-greenbelt-steve-clark-developers/

Wed, 2023-09-20 21:17

jerrym

The resignation of a second Ontario PC cabinet minister, Minister of Public and Business Service Delivery Kaleed Rasheed, from cabinet and caucus raises more questions about Ford's involvement in the Great Greenbelt Giveaway that the auditor general said gave developers a windfall $8.3 billion dollar profit, especially because Premier Ford's principal secretary, Amin Massoudi, was also involved in the Las Vegas trip with a developer who benefited greatly from the Great Greenbelt Giveaway of $8.3 billion of Greenbelt land. The Trillium, a new Village Media website, and Ontario's Integrity Commissioner concluded that Rasheed had not told the truth about meeting the developer by coincidence since they had a massage and mani-pedi together in Las Vegas, thereby forcing the resignation. It will be interesting to see how costly this is to Premier Ford's and the PC government's popularity in the next Ontario poll.

A cabinet minister in the Ford government has resigned and left the Progressive Conservative caucus after admitting to giving Ontario's integrity commissioner incorrect information about a Las Vegas trip with a Greenbelt developer.

Kaleed Rasheed, formerly the minister of public and business service delivery, and the MPP for Mississauga East—Cooksville, resigned on Wednesday afternoon.

In a statement he posted on Twitter, Rasheed said he decided to make the “incredibly difficult” decision to leave the PCs “so as not to distract from the important work of the government.”

Integrity Commissioner J. David Wake expanded his recent Greenbelt investigation to look into the Vegas trip, which The Trillium first reported on June 29.

On Sept. 11, The Trillium reported new information challenging the accounts that Rasheed, the developer Shakir Rehmatullah, Amin Massoudi, a former close aide of Ford's, and Jae Truesdell, the premier's current director of housing policy, gave to Wake about the trip.

The Trillium reported in its June 29 story that Massoudi went on the trip. On July 24,The Trillium reported that Truesdell, who was working in the private sector in between stints in the government in early 2020, had been there, too.

In the interviews they did with Wake afterwards, the three linked to the government — Massoudi, Truesdell and Rasheed — said they’d gone to Las Vegas together a couple of months earlier in December 2019. During that time, Rasheed and Massoudi said they only “briefly encountered” the developer, Rehmatullah, in the lobby of their hotel.

Rehmatullah, who runs Flato Developments and owns land removed from the Greenbelt last year, was travelling separately, according to the accounts he and the others gave Wake. Rehmatullah also gave Wake records indicating he stayed at the Wynn Las Vegas from both Dec. 6 to 9 and Jan. 31 to Feb. 2, 2020.

The new information The Trillium reported on Sept. 11 included that Massoudi had booked an 80-minute "Good Luck Ritual" massage at the Wynn Las Vegas hotel — where they stayed — on Feb. 1, 2020.

On Tuesday, CTV News reported that Rasheed and Rehmatullah had also gotten massages at the same hotel spa at the same time as Massoudi on Feb. 1, 2020.

The Trillium had also reported that another booking under Rasheed’s name had been made at the Wynn hotel’s spa on Feb. 4, 2023. He had told the integrity commissioner that he had only visited Las Vegas once — in December 2019 — since being elected as an MPP in 2018.

On Tuesday, a day before he resigned from Ford’s cabinet, Rasheed’s spokesperson said in a statement that he had "mistakenly" shared incorrect information with the integrity commissioner "based off the original itinerary of the trip."

"As noted in the commissioners' (sic) report, Minister Rasheed had been trying to contact the hotel numerous times for assistance in obtaining proof of payment but received no response," said Rasheed's spokesperson, adding that the now-former PC MPP had contacted the integrity commissioner to provide the correct information and “correct the record.”

Ford’s office notified journalists of Rasheed’s resignation in a statement on Wednesday afternoon.

“If Mr. Rasheed can clear his name through the Office of the Integrity Commissioner, he will be provided an opportunity to return to caucus,” the premier’s office’s statement said.

Rasheed posted his statement on Twitter shortly afterwards, saying, “I look forward to taking the steps required to clear my name with the Integrity Commissioner so that I can return to the Ontario PC team as soon as possible.”

https://www.sudbury.com/beyond-local/cabinet-minister-resigns-exits-pc-c...

Thu, 2023-09-21 22:00

jerrym

Following the loss of two cabinet ministers, Doug Ford's own principal secretary, and his director of housing policy for the office of Ontario Premier Doug Ford, the Great Greenbelt Giveaway is turning into the Great Greenbelt Fiasco. With Progressive Conservative MLAs telling Ford that their constituents are really angry about the corruption and the loss of Greenbelt land, and his internal polls showing he would certainly not win a majority in an election, Ford finally gave in and cancelled the Great Greenbelt Giveaway. Now the question how will this affect his popularity in the polls after more than a month of supporting the Great Greenbelt Giveaway to now admit that it was entirely wrong from the start.

Thu, 2023-10-05 21:18

jerrym

Pallas Data Poll September 27, 2023

The results show Ford's PCs have fallen down to their lowest support level at 33.4% while there is a statistically insignificant lead for the NDP at 27.4% over the Liberals at 26.7%. However, the regional data raises questions about the poll. For example it shows the NDP of all other parties in only one region, Eastern Ontario, an area where they have historically never done well at all, yet at 14% in Northern Ontario, where they have traditionally done reasonably well.

The poll also shows Crombie at 29% well ahead to second place Erskine-Smith at 9% in the Liberal leadership race.

https://www.vmcdn.ca/files/trillium/files/ontario-villagemedia-28septemb...

Thu, 2023-10-05 21:32

jerrym

The Pallas Data poll in the last post was commissioned by The Trillium. Below is the article the Trillium wrote about the poll's findings. One interesting point is that, according to the poll, Crombie would pull more NDP supporters than other candidates even though Crombie said "the Liberals have moved 'much too far to the left' " , although the pollster said that name recognition could be playing a role in these numbers.

A new Pallas Data poll conducted for The Trillium last week found support for the PCs has hit its lowest point since the 2022 election at 33 per cent, with the NDP and the Ontario Liberal Party close behind, neck-and-neck at 27 per cent each.

According to Pallas Data CEO Joseph Angolano, if there was an election with these results it would likely have resulted in a slim majority government for the Ontario PCs, given the split between the NDP and Liberal parties. However, in the past when the PCs have earned only a third of the votes in a general election, they have not formed government. "When an election is called, that hypothetical becomes reality," said Angolano. "And then people think about it a little bit more, they start talking about it with their friends or family and start paying a little more attention to the news and social media."

When only one in three voters support the PCs, the party has neared its modern electoral floor, he added. In both the 2018 and 2022 elections, the party earned over 40 per cent support, making Ford premier. In the four elections before that, the PCs won 31 to 35 per cent support, making them the Official Opposition to the Liberals. When Mike Harris won electoral victories his party's support was in the mid-'40s. The low-water mark for the party was more than three decades ago: in 1987 and 1990, when it earned 25 and 24 per cent, respectively, giving it third-party status in the legislature.

But in between Ford's two victories, the PCs polling numbers dipped down to the low-30s, before they recovered in the lead-up to the 2022 election, notably in Ford's first year in office and at times during the COVID-19 pandemic, including in 2021 after the unpopular decisions to close playgrounds and beef up police powers, which were swiftly reversed. Ford has again reversed course on an unpopular decision: opening up parts of the Greenbelt to development.

In late September, the premier apologized for the "terrible" process his government used to select lands from the Greenbelt to be opened for development, and pledged to re-protect those lands and never touch the Greenbelt again. His party's numbers are down from a month ago, compared to a poll taken before his promise to re-protect the Greenbelt.

That poll, conducted Aug. 28-29, also had the PCs in the lead: 37 per cent of decided and leaning voters would choose Ford's PCs in an election, compared to 27 per cent for the Liberals, 26 per cent for the NDP and 5 per cent for the Greens. It was taken after the province's former auditor general released her damning report on the Greenbelt process but before the province's integrity commissioner's report. It was also before the resignation of two cabinet ministers over the scandal.

Liberal leadership numbers

The Pallas Data poll also tested the impact of the Ontario Liberal Party leadership race on the parties' standings. It found Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie is the only Liberal leadership candidate who'd give the party a boost. In fact, if there was an election held when the poll was conducted last week, a Crombie Liberal party could have reduced the Progressive Conservative government to a minority, Angolano said.

Pallas asked respondents how they'd vote in an election held that day if each of the leadership candidates were the leader of the Liberal party, and compared that to the results they'd given with interim leader John Fraser at the helm.

Overall, 29 per cent of respondents said they'd vote for Crombie's Liberals, a five-point bump over the party's standing with the interim leader. She'd be just two points shy of Ford's PCs at 31 per cent, with 21 per cent for Marit Stiles' NDP and 8 per cent for Mike Schreiner's Greens. Substituting any of the other leadership candidates for the interim leader lowered the Liberal vote in the test.

"She's the only one adding any sort of value to the OLP vote," said Angolano. "If she were leader with these numbers today, it would make it very close — it would probably be a PC minority, looking at the regional breakdowns."

A Crombie-led Liberal party would be dominant in Toronto and statistically tied in the Greater Toronto Area, he said.

Crombie would pull significant support from the NDP, Angolano said. Of the respondents who initially said they'd vote NDP, nearly one in five said they'd vote Liberal if Crombie was the leader.

That was especially interesting considering Crombie's comments at the outset of the campaign about the Liberal party having moved "much too far to the left," Angolano said, adding that whoever wins the Liberal leadership would likely need to pull votes from the NDP to win a majority government.

Name recognition is likely a factor, he said. "She is certainly the best-known of the candidates. That said, we do have a former minister here with Yasir Naqvi and he's not pulling anything near what Bonnie Crombie is," said Angolano. "This could, of course, all change. What if she does win the leadership? There's going to be a new focus put on her." ...

The poll was conducted just before Adil Shamji dropped out of the leadership race late Thursday afternoon to endorse Crombie. The results show he likely made the right choice in going to the candidate who's performing better than the rest, Angolano said. Shamji had a respectable showing in the leadership scenario questions, he added. However, when respondents were asked who they would like to lead the Liberal party, no respondents who'd initially said they'd vote Liberal chose Shamji as their preferred leader. About 50 per cent said Crombie, with Nate Erskine-Smith and Ted Hsu each getting 12 per cent, followed by Naqvi at 3 per cent. The next Liberal leader will be chosen by Liberal party members, of which there were about 80,000 according to the most recent disclosure by the party. It's a ranked ballot vote that's also weighted by riding so candidates will benefit from earning support across the province.

https://www.thetrillium.ca/news/politics/support-for-doug-fords-pcs-near...

Wed, 2023-10-25 22:21

jerrym

Drespite the RCMP investigation into the Great Greenbelt Giveaway, neither the NDP or Liberals, who are tied at 24%, are gaining on the PCs, who are at 40%, in the latest Abacus poll from October 10th to 15th. However, the number of undecided voters has grown from 20% to 27% and 56% see Ford's and the PCs being primarily in the interests of their friends and donors instead of Ontarians and only 20% feel the PCs deserve re-election while 47% believe there is a good alternative and 33% don't believe this.

The rise in PC support is mostly the result of a drop in support for the Liberals and NDP and a rise in undecided voters (from 20% to 27%) than a substantial surge in PC support.

Regionally, the PCs are well ahead in Toronto, the GTHA, and in southwestern Ontario while competitive with the Liberals in eastern Ontario and competitive with the Liberals and NDP in Northern Ontario.

Since August, the Ford government’s approval rating is unchanged with 30% approving and 47% disapproving.

When we asked respondents a similar question we started asking about the federal Liberal government about a desire for change, only 20% of Ontarians believe that Doug Ford and the PCs deserve to be re-elected. 47% think it’s time for a change and there’s a good alternative while 33% believe it’s time for a change but don’t think there’s a good alternative to Doug Ford and the PCs. A clear indication that neither the Ontario NDP or Ontario Liberals have firmly established themselves as an alternative government in waiting.

Digging deeper in the Greenbelt saga, we asked a question we have asked twice before – whether the decisions the Ford government is making are primarily about what’s in the best interest of Ontarios or are primarily in the interest of his friends and supporters. This month, those who are unsure has increased by 6-points but a majority (56%) continue to believe that Ford is making decisions primarily in the interest of his friends and supporters.

Now when respondents were told that Ford reversed his government’s decision to swap land in the Greenbelt for development, 62% felt it was the right decision (including 68% of past PC voters). Only 16% felt it was the wrong decision.

When asked whether the Greenbelt decision was part of a bigger problem with Doug Ford and the PC government or an isolated incident, 52% felt it was part of a bigger program while 24% thought it was an isolated incident and 24% were not sure or did not know. Noteworthy, 1 in 3 past PC supporters believe the Greenbelt decision reflects a bigger problem with Ford and his government.

Finally, this survey was conducted after news broke that the RCMP had opened up an investigation into how the Greenbelt deals were handled. Over the period the survey was conducted (October 10 to 15), about 1 in 4 Ontarians hadn’t heard the news yet. Another 44% are aware but not following it closely while 27% are following news of the RCMP investigation either pretty or very closely.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Progressive Conservatives (PCs), under Doug Ford, appear to have arrested a decline in their popularity, which could be attributed in part to Ford’s reversal and subsequent apology over the Greenbelt saga. Although the PCs have witnessed an uptick in the vote share among decided voters, this increase is more a consequence of falling support for both the Ontario Liberals and NDP and an increase in the undecided voter demographic rather than an inherent rise in PC popularity.

Regionally, the PCs enjoy dominance in Toronto, the GTHA, and southwestern Ontario. However, when it comes to voter sentiment, only 20% feel that the PCs deserve reelection, indicating a prevailing undercurrent of discontent and a significant desire for change. While 47% desire a change and identify the presence of a viable alternative, a significant 33% wantchange but feel there’s no worthy substitute. This suggests that neither the NDP nor the Liberals have been able to position themselves as a credible alternative, reflecting a potential vacuum in opposition leadership, and one that may resolve itself once the Liberals elect their new leader later this year.

Diving into the Greenbelt issue, a majority (56%) still perceive Ford’s decisions as being influenced more by the interests of his friends and supporters rather than those of Ontarians. This sentiment could have been a contributing factor to the declining support in earlier polls.

However, Ford’s decision to reverse the Greenbelt land swap received overwhelming approval, with 62% agreeing it was the right call. It’s evident that this move has helped to mitigate some of the political fallout from the scandal. But, on assessing if this was a singular misstep or indicative of a broader pattern of governance, 52% felt it pointed to a more significant problem, highlighting that while the reversal was well-received, deeper issues of trust persist – albeit with only a slight majority of people in the province.

Notably, awareness surrounding the RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt deals remains relatively low; almost a quarter of Ontarians are still unaware, and only 27% are closely monitoring the developments. Should charges be laid as a result of this investigation, it’s uncertain how this might further impact the PCs’ standing and whether this would provide the necessary momentum for opposition parties to gain traction.”

https://abacusdata.ca/ontario-pcs-rebound-despite-rcmp-investigation-sta...

Wed, 2023-11-15 19:04

jerrym

Innovative Research Poll October 30 2023 (more details at the url below)

PCs 41%

NDP 26%

Liberals 25%

Greens 7%

Others 2%

Key Findings

Fewer have been following the Greenbelt Controversy compared to the COVID-19 Lockdown.

While 3-in-4 (73%) have been following Ford’s press conferences on the government’s plan to combat COVID-19, just under 3-in- 5 (57%) have been following the recent Greenbelt controversy, including the decision of the RCMP to open a criminal investigation.

More believe that Ford responded poorly to criticisms on the Greenbelt than to COVID-19.

With a net well score of -19%, more disagree that Ford responded well to criticisms on the Greenbelt controversy compared to the government’s response to COVID-19, which had a net well score of -9%. In both situations, NDP partisans were most likely to believe that Ford responded poorly to criticisms.

A little over half agreed both that the Greenbelt and COVID controversies are signs of deeper issues.

Over half of respondents believe that the government’s handling of the Greenbelt issue and the managing of measures to combat COVID-19 are signs of deeper issues with how the government is managing the province/pandemic. Among Liberal and PC partisans, more believe that the handling of the Greenbelt controversy is a sign of deeper issues compared to the management of COVID-19 measures.

Ontarians are divided over whether Premier Ford accepts responsibility and is trying to do better.

Both on COVID (+6%) and the Greenbelt (+2%), slightly more Ontarians agreed than disagreed that “Doug Ford has accepted responsibility for his mistakes and is taking steps to do better.”

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Greenbelt-Contr...

Sat, 2023-12-02 00:02

jerrym

Abacus Data poll results Dec. 1 2023

A survey of Ontario voters by Abacus Data found that if an election were held today 41% would vote for Doug Ford and the PCs, 24% for the NDP, 23% for the leaderless Liberals, and 7% for the Greens – party of two. When asked how they would vote if Crombie were Liberal leader, Ford’s PC’s drop to 39%, the Liberals jump to 31%, the NDP drop to 20%, and the Greens to 6%.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/ontario-by-election-result-a-d...

Tue, 2023-12-05 01:03

#10

jerrym

It will be interesting to see if Doug Ford's low rankings in the Angus Redi Premier Popularity rankings (7th of 9 as PEI is too small in polling sample size to rank and 3% from dead last) will cost the PCs support over time, or will the opposition crystallize around the relatively large but troubled NDP opposition (over the Gaza War split in the party) or the new kid in town, Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie.

Doug Ford

The RCMP continues its investigation into the Ford government’s Greenbelt development deal, with Ford announcing last week that he will waive cabinet confidentiality and offer full access to documents. Ford also met with Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow on Nov. 27 to announce a “game-changing” multi-billion-dollar deal between the province and the city. The province will reportedly take over responsibility for two highways and increase housing funding, leaving the city in a much better financial position. Through all this, Ford’s personal approval remains low, at 34 per cent:

https://angusreid.org/premiers-approval-francois-legault-doug-ford-david...

Tue, 2023-12-12 03:09

#11

jerrym

In the first poll since Bonnie Crombie was selected as Liberal Party leader, the PC lead over the Liberals has shrunk to 2% with the NDP trailing the PCs by 17%. The combination of a new right wing alternative leader for the Liberals and Marit Stiles failure to connect on the Greenbelt scandal and her expelling of Sara Jana splitting the NDP party appears to have hurt the party deeply. A word of caution though, since this is a Mainstreet poll from a polling firm known to have given large leads to right wing parties, with several elections showing they were way off. For example, the 2017 Calgary mayor election: "Mainstreet Research called a 48-31 per cent win for Smith over Nenshi — a whopping 17 percentage point gap — in early October, then lowered Smith's lead to 13 points three days before the election. On Oct. 16 Nenshi was elected with an eight-point lead." (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/mainstreet-poll-calgary-response-...)

PCs 36%

Liberals 34%

NDP 19%

Greens 6%

Others 5%

Mainstreet has released the results of their survey conducted immediately proceeding the announcement of Bonnie Crombie as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party on December 2nd, 2023. The survey, conducted on Sunday, December 3rd and Monday, December 4th, 2023. The results show a close two way race between the Ontario Liberal Party and the Ontario PC Party which, if replicated in 2026, would seriously call into question the Ontario PC Party’s ability to win a third straight majority. The survey also found Doug Ford with a -18 net favourability, with Crombie at a +2 net favourability. Additionally, the survey also asked respondents what they believe the most important issue is, and which party/leader would best be able to address the most important issues facing the province. The results paint a fascinating picture for the next two and half years of Ontario Provincial Politics.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/poll/mainstreet-ontario-december-2023/

Mon, 2023-12-18 18:38

#12

jerrym

Abacus Poll December 12, 2023

As mentioned in the last post, Mainstreet does tend to give very large leads to right-wing candidates and parties, so it is not surprising that Abacus's December poll does not show the enormous gain that Mainstreet projects for the Liberal under 'We need to move to the right' Bonnie Crombie. However, it does a slight drop in Doug Ford support (-3% to 39%) and a slight increase in Liberal (+4% to 27%) support while the NDP vote stays flat at 24%.

Over 50% of people said Doug Ford was each of the following: "elitist", "corrupt" and "ignores people like me". ... "In terms of positive or negative impressions, Ford was at minus 22 per cent while Crombie, Stiles and Schreiner were each plus six cent." ... "Coletto noted with Ford's approval rating "showing signs of vulnerability," it makes sense for the Tories to spend money attacking the opposition leader they view as the greatest threat."

PCs 39%

Liberals 27%

NDP 24%

Greens 6%

Others ---

Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives are comfortably ahead in the latest Abacus Data tracking poll, but a new Liberal leader is exposing some vulnerabilities for the governing party. In the final Abacus provincial political survey of the year, Ford's Tories were at 39 per cent, well ahead of Bonnie Crombie's Liberals at 27 per cent, while Marit Stiles's New Democrats were at 24 per cent, and Mike Schreiner's Greens at six per cent.

However, the poll for the Star found a majority of respondents think the premier, scion of a rich family, is "wealthy," "cares more about helping his friends," "ignores people like me," and is "elitist" and "corrupt." In contrast, Crombie, who won the Liberal leadership on Dec. 2 and has given her party a modest bounce, scored better than Ford on those same metrics.

That's why the Tories have launched radio and online ads attacking the Mississauga mayor and issued a fundraising appeal claiming "Bonnie lives a lavish lifestyle, flying in private jets, riding shotgun in Maseratis, wearing Rolexes and vacationing at her home in the Hamptons."

"This could be a pre-emptive strike to maintain their stronghold or a sign of perceived threat from the Liberal camp," said Abacus president David Coletto, noting Ford's party is scrambling to define Crombie over concerns she poses an existential threat to them in the June 2026 election.

"Part of the magic of the 2022 PC landslide was based on the electorate largely rejecting the alternatives to Ford. Efforts to define Bonnie Crombie early are an attempt to replicate that outcome," Coletto said Monday.

Using online panels based on the Lucid exchange platform, Abacus surveyed 1,000 Ontarians Dec. 7-12. Although opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error, for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In last month's poll, the Tories were at 42 per cent, the NDP at 24 per cent, the Liberals at 24 per cent and the Greens at seven per cent, suggesting the government is weathering the $8.28-billion Greenbelt land swap scandal now under RCMP investigation.

Some 69 per cent said Ford was "wealthy," while 19 per cent said he was "middle class" and 12 per cent didn't know, whereas 35 per cent said Crombie is "wealthy" and 25 per cent said she was "middle class" with 40 per cent unsure. Similarly, 61 per cent felt the premier "cares more about helping his friends" while 28 per cent said he "cares more about improving the province" and 11 per cent didn't know.

Only 20 per cent said Crombie "cares more about helping her friends" and 37 per cent said she "care mores about improving the province" while 43 per cent didn't know.

A majority — 56 per cent — said Ford "ignores people like me" while 30 per cent said he "understands people like me" and 14 per cent had no opinion. One-third — 34 per cent — said Crombie, who lived with her single mother in a rooming house in her early childhood, "understands people like me" while 22 per cent said she "ignores people like me" and 44 per cent didn't know. More than half — 54 per cent — said Ford was "elitist," while 30 per cent said he was "down to earth" and 17 per cent had no opinion, compared to 25 per cent who felt Crombie was "elitist" and 34 per cent said she was "down to earth" with 41 per cent unsure. While 53 per cent said the premier was "corrupt" and 27 per cent said he was "ethical" and 19 per cent didn't know, just 15 per cent said Crombie was "corrupt" and 39 per cent said she was "ethical" with 45 per cent uncertain.

In terms of positive or negative impressions, Ford was at minus 22 per cent while Crombie, Stiles and Schreiner were each plus six cent.

Coletto noted with Ford's approval rating "showing signs of vulnerability," it makes sense for the Tories to spend money attacking the opposition leader they view as the greatest threat. "The PCs aren't going to repeat the mistakes of the federal Liberals who let (Conservative Leader) Pierre Poilievre introduce himself to Canadians without any counter narrative," he said, adding the provincial Tories are demonstrating "a clear understanding of the power of early narrative-setting in politics. Despite some real perceptual vulnerabilities, Doug Ford and the PCs remain in a solid position today. But now that the menu for the next election has been finalized, Ontarians who want change will have two choices that are already more favourable than the last two NDP and Liberal leaders." That's a reference to former NDP leader Andrea Horwath, now the mayor of Hamilton, and former Liberal leader Steven Del Duca, now the mayor of Vaughan.

The pollster said the coming month will be "crucial" toward setting the stage for 2026. "For the PCs, it's about maintaining their lead by defining Crombie negatively, while for the Liberals, it's about leveraging Crombie’s initial positive image to close the gap with the PCs," said Coletto. "The PC Party’s massive fundraising advantage can't be underemphasized."

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/bonnie-crombie-is-exposing-v...

Fri, 2023-12-29 21:45

#13

Geoffreedom

New Democrats take notice. Ford paid Marit Stiles no attention when she claimed the leadersip. However, he immediately launched attack ads on Bonnie Crombie as soon as she won the Liberal leadership. So who does he fear the most and why?

Mon, 2024-01-29 22:51

#14

jerrym

A new Abacus Data poll on Jan. 23-24 shows almost no change from their December poll with three parties losing 1% and the Liberals staying at 27%, suggesting that so far Bonnie Crombie being chosen as Liberal leader has not had a significant electoral effect. However, Abacus warns that there are ominous warnings for Doug Ford on the horizon because of the large number of undecideds who voted for Ford in the last election. The Ford government had net negative 19% impression among voters, while the NDP were net 4% positive, the Liberals net 3% positive and the Greens a net 3% positive. The key question remains whether Ford opponent voters move to one party or continue to split their vote.

PCs 38% (-1%)

Liberals 27% (tied with December Abacus Data poll)

NDP 23% (-1%)

Greens 5% (-1%)

Premier Doug Ford's governing Progressive Conservatives appear to be holding their own, but there are some potentially ominous signs for the party, a new poll suggests.

The latest Abacus Data tracking poll found the Tories at 38 per cent with Bonnie Crombie's Liberals at 27 per cent, Marit Stiles' New Democrats at 23 per cent and Mike Schreiner's Greens at five per cent. While the January findings are virtually the same as the December results, trouble may be lurking for the Tories when undecided voters are factored in, said Abacus president David Coletto.

When asked for their "current provincial vote intention," 29 per cent of respondents said PC, 21 per cent Liberal, 18 per cent NDP, four per cent Green, five per cent another party while 23 per cent were undecided. "That undecided vote is high," said Coletto, noting in his January federal poll only 15 per cent of respondents were undecided. "Far more of those (provincial) undecideds say they voted PC last time than for the other parties," he said.

Indeed, 22 per cent of undecided voters said they cast Tory ballots in the 2022 election with 14 per cent voting Liberal, eight per cent NDP, two per cent Green, one per cent another party and 53 per cent either couldn't remember or didn't vote. "That 22 per cent (of former Tory voters now undecided) represents five per cent of eligible voters," said Coletto.

The pollster said that means the race could dramatically tighten if those undecided voters "were to migrate to the Liberals or the New Democrats."

Using online panels based on the Lucid exchange platform, Abacus surveyed 995 Ontarians Jan. 18 to 23. Although opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error, for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Fewer than one-third — 30 per cent — had a positive impression of Ford while almost half — 49 per cent — had a negative impression with 19 per cent neutral and 23 per cent didn't know enough to say. That's a net impression rating for the premier of minus 19 per cent.

In contrast, the NDP's Stiles had a 26 per cent positive, 22 per cent negative, 29 per cent neutral and 23 per cent unsure for a net rating of plus four per cent.

Similarly, the Liberals' Crombie was 28 per cent positive, 25 per cent negative, 26 per cent neutral and 22 per cent unsure for a net rating of plus three per cent.

For the Greens' Schreiner, it was 19 per cent positive, 16 per cent negative, 40 per cent neutral and 25 per cent unsure for a net rating of plus three per cent.

Coletto said that indicates the multimillion-dollar advertising blitz the Tories launched against Crombie after she won the Dec. 2 Liberal leadership has so far not resonated with voters. "It doesn't appear that the attack ads have yet had any impact on her brand," he said. In a bid to negatively define Crombie, the Tories unleashed TV, radio and online ads criticizing the former Mississauga mayor after she took the Liberal helm. That's because Ford's party fears she could pose an existential threat to their stronghold in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area over the past two elections.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/doug-fords-tories-are-ahead-...

Mon, 2024-02-19 16:59

#15

jerrym

Liaison Strategies Poll Feb. 3

PCs 38%

Liberals 30%

NDP 22%

Greens 5%

Others 5%

While Ontario’s PC Party is maintaining its lead in Ontario, a new poll suggests that Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals appear to be gaining ground in some regions of the province.

The Liaison Strategies(opens in a new tab) poll, released Tuesday, found that 34 per cent of respondents would vote for Doug Ford’s PC Party if an election were held today, compared to 26 per cent who said they would vote for the Liberals, and 18 per cent who would cast their ballot for the NDP. A further 15 per cent of respondents were undecided. Among decided and leaning voters only, the Tories had the support of 38 per cent of respondents compared to 30 per cent each for the Liberals and 22 per cent for the NDP.

"While Doug Ford is leading the Crombie Liberals by eight points, the regionals are looking a little rosier for Crombie," David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said in a written statement accompanying the poll.

Valentin noted that the Liberals are leading in the northern part of the province, with 34 per cent support, as well as Toronto, with 40 per cent support. In the 905, the Liberals and Tories are tied at 38 per cent support.

Valentin goes on to note that Ford has a “commanding lead in most other regions,” with the strong support in Eastern Ontario, where 46 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Tories. In southwestern Ontario, 40 per cent confirmed that they would support Ford’s PC Party.

The poll also found that residents of the province have a “dim view of the healthcare system.”

According to the poll, a “strong majority” of respondents, about 66 per cent, believe the healthcare system is worse today than it was five years ago.

About 48 per cent said they believe the system will stay the same, while 24 per cent believe it will deteriorate further.

About 78 per cent of respondents said they were not confident they could see a family doctor within 24 hours, 69 per cent said they were not confident they would receive a room in a hospital if needed, 82 per cent said they were not confident in their ability to see a specialist before a medical condition got worse, and 74 per cent said they were not confident they could get a necessary surgery in a timely fashion.

"Ontarians' confidence in the healthcare system is broken but at the same time, they would re-elect the incumbent government today,” Valentin noted.

“There is very little confidence in any aspect of the system… We've seen many stories about the healthcare system in the last few months and it's clear from those stories and personal experiences that Ontarians have concluded there is not much in the system they can depend on.”

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ford-s-pc-party-has-eight-point-lead-over-lib...

Mon, 2024-02-19 17:33

#16

JKR

Are either the Ontario NDP or Ontario Liberals contemplating supporting electoral reform and putting it on their election platform for the next election?

Mon, 2024-02-19 17:34

#17

jerrym

Pallas Data Poll Feb. 11

PCs 34.5%

Liberals 31.6%

NDP 21.6%

Greens 7.3%

Others 5%

The latest poll shows the Liberals up 3% while the NDP trails the Liberals by 10%. The NDP is slowly loses 1% at a time in each poll while the Greens pick up 2% in the latest poll. Out of six issues polled by Pallas, the Ford government is only seen as "Getting it done", its 2022 campaign promise, on one issue - the privatization of alcohol. On the other hand the PCs are -54% on healthcare and -35% on education, the two issues with the strongest disapproval, and ones which are typically NDP strong issues (see url below for charts on this). Yet the NDP are slowly losing support and trail the PCs by 13%, while the Liberals, who also have a highly unpopular Liberal federal party, are just 3% behind the PCs. In my opinion, this is a reflection on Marit Stiles poor leadership skills, especially considering the Liberals are still not officially recognized as a party in the legislature, thereby limiting their ability to attack the government in house. Stiles showed little skill in attacking the PCs on the Greenbelt scandal, despite the environment being another issue of relative NDP traditional strength and despite the Liberals only having an interim leader at the time.

She then panicked when MLA Sarah Jama spoke out on the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in the early days following the October 7th Hamas attack on Israelis because Doug Ford announced he would censor Jama. Jama's foresight in seeing where the Gaza attack, now recognized as "plausible genocide" by the International Court of Justice, not only cost Stiles left-wing NDP votes, but also contributed to the loss of support among people of colour in Ontario and rumblings that the same is happening within NDP people of colour MLAs, who like the Global South, see what is happening in Gaza as genocide. This loss of support among people of colour was reflected in the loss of a the Kitchener Centre by-election where a resigning Black NDP popular MLA was replaced by a Green who added 35% in support in going from 13% to 48% while the NDP lost 14% in falling from 41% to 27%. One problem with the Ontario NDP is not having a leadership race, thereby enabling Stiles to take the leadership without any evaluation of her skills, which is what a lot of the insiders wanted as a former party president, Stiles was an insider's insider. A leadership race would not only have built up party membership but allowed her NDP opponents to challenge Stiles on the issues and on her leadership skills.

https://www.vmcdn.ca/files/trillium/files/ontario-trillium-13february202...

Mon, 2024-02-19 18:55

(Reply to #17) #18

JKR

jerrym wrote:

…considering the Liberals are still not officially recognized as a party in the legislature, thereby limiting their ability to attack the government in house.

Not being an official party in the legislature has its benefits too. It allows the Liberals to run as outsiders disconnected from the failures of the legislature.

Sun, 2024-02-25 00:14

#19

jerrym

Unfortunately Marit Stiles has not taken advantage of the opportunity by dominating debate time in the Ontario legislature because the Liberals are still not an official party. Nor has she made much of an impact outside of the legislature while at the same time unnecessarily alienating the Moslem and much of the people of colour vote by kicking Sarah Jama out of the party, especially when her criticism of Israel's actions have largely turned out to be true.

Wed, 2024-02-28 00:48

#20

jerrym

Abacus Poll February 21 2024 The article title says everything you need to know about Marit Stiles leadership on the Greenbelt, on removing Sarah Jama from the party and not dealing effectively with important issues for people of colour, on a failure to create effective attacks on Ford on three issues central to the NDP, namely healthcare, education and the climate crisis, and on a listless presence in the legislature despite being the only official opposition party that has seen her drop 26% in mid-November to 19% now despite Ford being -17 in his approval rating: "Doug Ford's Tories are surging at the expense of Marit Stiles' New Democrats, poll suggests".

PCs 41%

Liberals 27%

NDP 19%

Greens 8%

Others 5%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Ontario_general_election#cite_note-40

Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives are riding high at the apparent expense of Marit Stiles' New Democrats, a new poll suggests. The latest Abacus Data tracking poll for the Star had the Tories up three points to 41 per cent while the NDP had dropped four points to 19 per cent. Bonnie Crombie's Liberals remain mired in second place at 27 per cent, unchanged from last month's survey, and Mike Schreiner's Greens are up to eight per cent from five per cent in January.

"The greatest risk for the NDP and Marit Stiles is a strong Liberal party and resilient Greens," said Abacus president David Coletto. "I think the NDP is still figuring out how to be relevant while also managing demons within its own party. The infighting within that party is likely to blame for the NDP drop," said Coletto.

That was a reference to internal tumult within the official opposition after rookie Hamilton Centre MPP Sarah Jama was defenestrated for repeated insubordination last October. She is now an Independent MPP.

There was also sobering news for the Liberals, who have not surged as much as they had hoped after Crombie, a popular former Mississauga mayor, won the leadership Dec. 2. "It's a tough job being an opposition leader in Ontario, especially when you don't have official party status, nor a seat in the legislature," said Coletto.

The Liberals, who governed from 2003 until 2018, have nine seats in the 124-member house, three shy of recognized standing as a party in the chamber. That means the Grits don't get much time in the legislature's question period and lack funding for staff and research — a challenge for Crombie, who is also being targeted by a multimillion-dollar PC attack ad blitz. "She will need to start talking directly to voters through advertising to break through. Take a page from Pierre Poilievre's strategy," said Coletto, referring to the federal Conservative leader's ongoing promotional campaign.

Abacus surveyed 1,000 Ontarians from Feb. 15 until last Wednesday using online panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. While opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error, for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Encouraging as February's findings may be to the Tories, Coletto noted the undecided vote remains "worryingly high" for the governing party.

When asked for their "current provincial vote intention," 32 per cent of respondents said PC, 21 per cent Liberal, 15 per cent NDP, six per cent Green, four per cent another party while 22 per cent were undecided. "High undecideds could definitely be a vulnerability if those folks become engaged and consolidate around an alternative to Ford," said Coletto, noting it was 23 per cent undecided last month. "Ford's approval rating has dropped over the past few months but it hasn’t really impacted vote intentions," the pollster noted. "That's often the last thing to shift, but also requires voters to feel there's a better alternative. If that condition emerges, Ford could be in trouble."

Mindful of current concerns over inflation, Abacus asked respondents "between your provincial government and the federal government, which has made decisions that have most increased your cost of living?" About two-thirds — 64 per cent — of Ontarians said the federal government, while 36 per cent said Queen's Park. (In the rest of Canada, 70 per cent pointed at Ottawa while 30 per cent blamed their respective provincial government.)

"I think Doug Ford has built his personal brand around fighting for taxpayers," said Coletto. "He's seen as empathetic and committed to making life more affordable and so that's insulated him from some of the same forces bringing down incumbents elsewhere," he said. "There's a subset of the electorate unhappy with the Ford government, but not ready to commit to an alternative."

Fewer than one-third — 30 per cent — had a positive impression of Ford while nearly half — 47 per cent — had a negative impression with 20 per cent neutral and two per cent didn't know enough to say. That's a net impression rating for the premier of minus 17 per cent.

By comparison, the Liberals' Crombie was 27 per cent positive, 29 per cent negative, 28 per cent neutral and 16 per cent unsure for a net rating of minus two per cent.

Similarly, the NDP's Stiles had a 23 per cent positive, 25 per cent negative, 30 per cent neutral and 21 per cent unsure for a net rating of minus two per cent.

The Greens' Schreiner had a 19 per cent positive, 21 per cent negative, 37 per cent neutral and 24 per cent unsure for a net rating of minus two per cent.

These latest findings come against the backdrop of the Greenbelt land swap scandal that is under investigation by the RCMP.

In November, Abacus poll — conducted before Crombie won the Liberal leadership — the Tories were at 42 per cent, the NDP at 24 per cent, the Grits at 23 per cent and the Greens at seven per cent.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/doug-fords-tories-are-surgin...

Tue, 2024-03-12 21:16

#21

jerrym

Another poll confirms Doug Ford with a 10% lead over Liberals with NDP 18% back of PCs

Liaison Strategies poll March 8-9

PCs 39%

Liberals 29%

NDP 21%

Greens 5%

Others 6%

A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Doug Ford leading Bonnie Crombie's Ontario Liberals by 10 points. Ontarians also give the most credit to the provincial government, as the level of government doing the most to support new housing.

Conducted from March 8-9, 2024, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,283 Ontario voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.74%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Insights Research Council (CRIC).

"The Ford PCs are up compared to our February survey but not by much, " said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.

"This month the PCs are at 39% (+1) followed by the Liberals at 29% (-1) and the NDP at 21% (-1). The Greens are at 5% (no change) and the 'Other' parties are polling at 6% (+1)."

"It's a strong 10 point lead province wide but regionally there are some very competitive battlegrounds. In Northern Ontario the Liberals lead by 1% over the PCs (34% to 33%) and in Southcentral Ontario, Hamilton and Niagara, the PCs are leading the NDP - but only by 5%, within the regional margin of error. Toronto and the 905 are once again close with the Liberals and PCs tied in Toronto and the PCs leading the Liberals by 3 points in the 905."

"All of that is to say the provincial tories are doing well but they're not quite running away with it and there are areas of opportunity for the opposition parties."

"This month we asked about housing - which level of government is doing the most to build it? 40% told us it was the provincial government, with the federal government and municipal governments in a tie for second at 24% apiece. As for which government is doing the least - 37% say that municipal governments."

"Overall, 41% of Ontarians say the same amount of housing is being built now as it was 5 years ago. 57% say the right amount of housing is being built in their community but 55% say not enough housing is being built province wide."

"Lastly, we asked Ontarians if governments should count new long term care beds as new homes. The answer was no with 63% saying they shouldn't and 23% saying they should."

"On the surface, Ontarians want to see more housing but would prefer it be built outside their own communities. NIMBYism isn't new, but it's interesting to see that Ford's messaging on building homes is resonating as most are concluding it's the provincial government that's doing the most on housing," concluded Valentin.

https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/ontario-pcs-lead-liberals-by-10-ontar...

Tue, 2024-03-12 21:26

#22

jerrym

In Angus Reid's latest Premier Approval Doug Ford ranks 7th of the 9 premiers polled, just 3% above last last Premier Higgs, yet he has big leads of 10% and 18% over the Liberals and NDP respectively, showing how weak the opposition in Ontario is.

Quote:

Ontario’s Doug Ford announced his intention to “Get It Done” last month, introducing new legislation to streamline infrastructure projects by shortening environmental assessments and speeding up approval processes. Cooperation with the federal Conservatives may be less than a given, however, if that party does indeed form the next government in Ottawa. Tensions between the two conservative camps flared after newly elected federal MP Jamil Jivani criticized Ford’s government in a victory speech. Ford suggested Jivani, a former advisor to his own party, should “focus on the carbon tax”.

Ford and his Progressive Conservatives will hope that getting it done will help to boost his stagnant personal approval rate, which hasn’t exceeded its current 34 per cent mark since September 2022:

https://angusreid.org/premier-approval-march-2024/

Mon, 2024-03-25 14:55

#23

jerrym

Abacus Data Poll March 21 - Despite being -9% in Approval/Disapproval ratings the Doug Ford PCs are well ahead in all regions of the province.

PCs 41%

Liberals 27%

NDP 21%

Greens 7%

Others 5%

Regionally, the PCs lead in every region of the province. They are ahead by 9 in Toronto, 11 in the GTHA, 21 in southwestern Ontario, and 19 in eastern Ontario.

The PCs also lead among men (by 21) and women (by 6) and across every age group. Over time, we have noticed that the PCs have become more popular among younger Ontarians. This mimics what we have seen at the national level with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and something we think is directly tied to the popularity of Poilievre among younger Ontarians. More on that below.

When it comes to the Ford government overall, 1 in 3 Ontarians approve of the government’s job performance while 43% disapprove. Since last month, the Ford government’s approval rating is up 4-points while disapproval is down 5 points since the beginning of the year.

Impressions of the four main party leaders are stable since last month. 1 in 3 have a favourable view of Premier Ford compared with 43% who have a negative impression for a net score of -11.

Marit Stiles has a net score of +2, while Bonnie Crombie is even with 27% positive and 27% negative.

How do Ontarians View the Ford Government?

Respondents were asked to choose phrases or words that describe the Ford government. We asked the same question to our national sample about the Trudeau government and to a large sample in Alberta about the provincial government led by Danielle Smith. We will share results of those results in the coming days.

In Ontario, views of the Ford government are mixed. For example, Ontarians are about evenly split on whether the provincial government is focused or distracted, whther it is clear on what it wants Ontario to be or not, and whether it is effective or ineffective. Moreover, about 1 in 3 feel the provincial government is focused on the right priorities, proactive rather than reactive, and empathetic rather than indifferent.

https://abacusdata.ca/ford_poilievre_ontario_politics/

Mon, 2024-04-22 20:47

#24

jerrym

PCs have 16% lead over Liberals and 20% over NDP in Abacus Data April 11-16 poll.

If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC with the Ontario Liberals at 25%, the Ontario NDP at 21%, and the Greens at 7%.

All of these results are consistent with what we found last month and all change is within the margin of error of the survey.

Regionally, the PCs lead in every region of the province. They are ahead by 16 in Toronto, 12 in the GTHA, 21 in southwestern Ontario, and 29 in eastern Ontario. The increase in support in Eastern Ontario could be related to the recent announcement of a new deal with the City of Ottawa.

The PCs also lead among men (by 24) and women (by 7) and across every age group. Over time, we have noticed that the PCs have become more popular among younger Ontarians. This mimics what we have seen at the national level with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and something we think is directly tied to the popularity of Poilievre among younger Ontarians.

https://abacusdata.ca/ontario_politics_abacus_april2024/